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All Forum Posts by: Fernando E.

Fernando E. has started 29 posts and replied 222 times.

Post: Buying the dip, Is it too soon?

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103

@John Zurzolo you got some good comments above. My 2 cents, as long as the math works and it aligns with your financial goal, its a good deal in my book. Good luck. 

Post: Recession Investing Strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Paul Moore:
Quote from @Fernando E.:
Quote from @Paul Moore:

Hi @Fernando E.! Great post and you got some fabulous replies above. I am in my 3rd decade as a real estate investor and I have found that it is most prudent to invest in asset classes that have a lot of mom-and-pop sellers. Operators that don't have the time or resources, knowledge or desire to increase NOI, improve operations and increase the value. They don't need to in many cases, this last decade? Acquiring self storage (like @Scott Krone said above), mobile home parks, RV parks, and other assets that are seriously undervalued should allow many of us to thrive while this market turns down for the next 1-3 years, if it does. 

This is really just the Warren Buffett value investing thesis. Find significantly undervalued deals and improve them to perform well in any economy. I also like a longer hold which allows you to pick up more recession-based revenue increases over time while the cap rates and interest rates fluctuate against and for you. Good luck and happy investing! 

@Paul Moore amazing take on value based investing thesis by Warren Buffet applied to real estate. Buy properties that are undervalued improve it and cash flow regardless of the economy and interest rate. Do you think that multi family is undervalued? Earlier this year I looked at the Las Vegas  market for multi family, numbers didn’t workout so I switched to single family homes but with the rate increase, the numbers also didn’t pan out at 20% down payment conventional. What areas do you think will pan out for multi? Also do you still hold any meet ups or team coaching? Thank you Paul for always being gracious sharing your knowledge. 

 @Fernando E. thank you, that is very kind of you. I am always happy to share. I do not do any paid coaching, however, I am happy to answer any BPer questions. I do a free call most weeks where I answer questions and if you would like to get information on how to join, please PM me. I plan to do one on October 19th. 

I wrote a book on multifamily, humbly titled The Perfect Investment, in 2016. If you PM me, I can send you a PDF copy. I absolutely do not think multifamily is undervalued. This is why our company stopped investing in multifamily for years and expanded into self-storage, mobile home parks, RV parks, etc. We do occasional multifamily, but only under rare circumstances. Multifamily in my humble opinion is the poster child for overvalued real estate in this cycle. I would stay away from it for now. Look for opportunities if the recession takes hold in the next 1-2 years. 

Good luck and happy investing!

 @Paul Moore I got your book, you gave this to me and I'm re-reading it. I'll send you a PM, it will be great to be part of the 10/19 call. Thanks again! 

Post: Laid Off-Next Move? Needing Advice

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Seth Botner:

Hello,

I got laid off from my W2 job unexpectedly this past Thursday. With this being my first time being laid off, it definitely knocked me down a few notches this weekend. I've always wanted to get into real estate ever since I graduated College in 2017. Before I started this W2 job earlier in 2022 I was on track to get my real estate license in KY. Passed the classes and right when I was going to take the exam I got a call offering me the job. I planned on taking the exam this fall. The plan was for my wife and I to work our full time time jobs and for me to do RE part time and to try and buy our first investment property. 

I keep reading articles and seeing videos of people saying the housing market is on its way to a collapse. My question is, with everything going on with the economy and interest rates going up is it a good idea for me to finish up my license? 

Maybe getting laid off was a good thing? Maybe this was God's way of closing one door and opening another?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated! 

 @Seth Botner sorry to hear about your situation. I think you're in the right path. Get another W2 job then get your realtor license. You will need a stable flow of income and the W2 will give you that, while you're hustling selling houses as an agent. This will be a grind but if you do the hard work and good mindset and partnership with your wife, you will be successful. Good luck! 

Post: Here's my situation, what would you do?

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Faraz K.:

Hello Bigger Pockets Community!

I’m new here and new to Real Estate in general, however I am very enthusiastic and determined to learn and invest wisely. Here’s a bit about myself and my goals:

Me:

  • - Early 30’s, single, no kids
  • - Compensation = ~$200k/yr (most of this is still W2)
  • - I’ve set aside between $75 - $100k in cash to invest in RE
  • - Current rent = $2100/mo.
  • - Credit score is high 700’s
  • - I do not own any property
  • - Split time between Phoenix, San Diego, and Denver

Goals:

  • - I’m a business owner, and still have a full-time job for a bit longer, so those will take my time priority for the foreseeable future
  • - My time is critical to my business, so I’m hoping to avoid the more time-consuming options
  • - I'm looking for the best way to achieve high ROI and monthly passive income
  • - I have friends who are more versed in RE than I am, who I can partner with if needed

I am still in the education phase; however, I am trying to decide what’s the best strategy for me. I am not afraid of putting in the work, but my business will take priority for now. My initial thoughts were single family homes, but I am realizing there may be better ways to scale and reach my goals.

What strategy would you implement if you were in my situation?

Thank you all for the help! This community has been so helpful.

 @Faraz K. first, a congrats is in order. Early 30s with a healthy compensation, with great credit score and savings, well done. Lots of smart people here in BP, very much experienced in REI so you will find some good opinions. Here's mine, IF I was in your position, I will find a great location and neighborhood and buy a house (SFR or MFR) that needs some repairs, I will put in 3.5% FHA, have this repaired and house-hack it. This may look like its a slow process, but from my perspective, this is boht an offensive and defensive move. Offensive since you are buying a hard asset that is undervalued, you're taking control of a hard asset with minimal cash, with the opportunity to increasing its value. Defensive, since it may reduce your rent expense, and you get the benefits of interest tax write off, and your renters helping pay off the mortgage. With a minimal expense and a high income, you can continue studying real estate and focusing on growing your business. I think this is a good start in real estate, you will have some land lording skills that will serve you well as you grow your portfolio. Just my opinion, NFA, DYOR of course, I'm sure you will figure it out. Good luck.

Post: Recession Investing Strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Michael Margarella:
Quote from @Fernando E.:

Hi BP,

It's been a while since I posted, hope everyone is managing well despite the bad macro economic condition

Wanted to get your insight on your investing strategy in this recession, are you buying or holding cash to wait out the recession?

I'll start, I was helping family to hunt down a good property in Austin Texas, SFR, close to the tech hubs, got pre-approved and started searching. We ended up slowing down in the search as the interest rates continue to rise and the deals are no longer working - cash flow negative. For my own investing, I was looking for property in the bay area SF, looking for price cuts but numbers still don't work here unless I sell my SFR to buy a bigger house where I can build an ADU and house hack.

Historically, the shortest recession ends in 6 months, the longest a few year ala great depression. Hopeful that it ends within 1-2 years. I think the Fed will continue hiking the rate to control inflation and destroy consumer demand. I plan to continue educating myself listening to BP, find some creative way to reach my investing goal, saving cash and getting ready. How about you, what's your game plan?  Thanks and good luck! 


 I recently wrote a BP article on self-storage investing during a recession here.  I’d be happy to hear your thoughts.

 @Michael Margarella very informative article on self-storage. I have no idea that the 4Ds which are prevalent during a recession will drive the need for self-storage. You learn new things everyday here in BP. My thoughts, IF - that's a big IF, the Fed does not pivot and continue to raise the interest rate,  then we are heading for full swing recession next year. And as such, the high demand for self-storage base on your article. I also think that investing in real estate has a personal touch, one should invest in something that interest or give happiness to the person. I remember reading Robert Kiyosaki's book RDPD, he mentioned that he loves real estate and he can look at them everyday. IF one finds interest and joy in the accumulation of self-storage, then it makes the journey more fun and interesting. Thanks for sharing. 

Post: Home Run, but unable to fund

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Money should never be the issue. If the deal is good enough someone will close on it 

Ditto @Eliott Elias also @Nolan Rowland IF its truly a home run, you did your BP calculator and analysis, I don't see any reason why you can't find people to invest. This is not my wheelhouse, but maybe you can ask some folks here on how to offer a deal to potential partners where both partners are in a win-win situation. Also consider a house hack with FHA loan. Good luck.

Post: Need advice on my real estate investment strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:

Terrible strategy.  Assumed appreciation can't be counted on. Past appreciation rates have no bearing on any future ones.  Besides, you can't substitute gains from appreciation against negative CF.  Cash flow is real...appreciation is an imaginary number that can only be real when turned into cash...as in selling the property.  Appreciation isn't cash.

Negative CF means you are adding that negative CF to your cost of the property.  Positive CF means whatever cash you put into the deal (DP) is the ONLY cost to the property.  $12-15k negative CF/year is actually an exponential loss.  If you used that money to reinvest with, instead of spending it as negative CF, you would get a "real" cash return out of it.

 @Akshay Bhaskaran I agree with @Joe Villeneuve's comment and other folks here. I had a post here in BP and mentioned that I am helping family hunt down some deals in the Austin tech market area, those areas that you are looking is also my hunting ground. The negative cash flow of $1K is accurate and in my opinion is a lot to bleed. In addition to this, you are taking a loan against your home, theoretically you're risking your castle, your home for a negative cash flow deal hoping for appreciation that may or. may not happen, adding some bad macro economic in the backdrop. I don't think that is advisable, this is NFA DYOR of course. Good luck. 

Post: Recession Investing Strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Adam Macias:

Fantastic discussion here. In short, you must make the numbers work regardless of the market conditions. This whole waiting on the sideline is an excuse of non-performance. I've found deals in 2010. I'm still finding deals today. Do the numbers work. As a wholesaler, all I'm concerned about is if buyers wants X, I supply them with Y. Frankly, I could CARE LESS about market conditions. As long as people need shelter and there's jobs, there's always a strategy to be executed. 

 @Adam Macias this discussion blew my mind, so many great tips from knowledgeable people here in BP. I am thankful to be part of this community, I'm also re-listening to all Scott Trench & Mindy BP Money podcast and David Greene, Beardy Brandon classics applicable to my situation, keeps me motivated, eye on the prize. 100% agree, the numbers must work. I am re-reading Bradon's book Investing in real estate, he recommend seeing each real estate buy as a business, the number must work. Thanks for your input. 

Post: Recession Investing Strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Drew Sygit:

@Fernando E. there are always deals if you stick to your metrics.

 @Drew Sygit 100% agree, I'm continuing to get my MLS notification of properties and do my BP calculations at least 1x a day, still looking for deals. Not rushing. Will deploy when find the right property, for now stashing cash reserves for whatever the future brings. Thanks for your input!

Post: Recession Investing Strategy

Fernando E.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • SF Bay Area
  • Posts 234
  • Votes 103
Quote from @Conner Olsen:
Quote from @Fernando E.:
Quote from @Conner Olsen:
Quote from @Fernando E.:

Hi BP,

It's been a while since I posted, hope everyone is managing well despite the bad macro economic condition

Wanted to get your insight on your investing strategy in this recession, are you buying or holding cash to wait out the recession?

I'll start, I was helping family to hunt down a good property in Austin Texas, SFR, close to the tech hubs, got pre-approved and started searching. We ended up slowing down in the search as the interest rates continue to rise and the deals are no longer working - cash flow negative. For my own investing, I was looking for property in the bay area SF, looking for price cuts but numbers still don't work here unless I sell my SFR to buy a bigger house where I can build an ADU and house hack.

Historically, the shortest recession ends in 6 months, the longest a few year ala great depression. Hopeful that it ends within 1-2 years. I think the Fed will continue hiking the rate to control inflation and destroy consumer demand. I plan to continue educating myself listening to BP, find some creative way to reach my investing goal, saving cash and getting ready. How about you, what's your game plan?  Thanks and good luck! 


My goal is to find a property in Austin and rent it out as a MTR or STR to cash flow and hold onto it for the appreciation. I'm still finding cash flow in Austin! You have to be a little more creative though.

@Conner Olsen great goals, how long is a typical mid term for your properties ie 6 months? We were active in the Austin market close to the tech hub - Round Rock, Hutto, Leander, etc. but the numbers didn’t cash flow, negative about $500-1K even with the price cuts. Can you give 1 example on how to be creative? Don’t need to tell all of us your magic, just want to have an idea of an approach. Thanks for your input. 


I'm an open book, I have no 'secrets' so ask me any questions you want. Rent by the room, MTR, STR in certain neighborhoods where you can operate legally and avoid the 11% city of Austin hotel tax are how I'm getting cash flow for my clients right now. Here is video of my MTR strategy, super simple and easily replicated. I increased my CoC return by 17% and went from -$500/mo to $1,500-$1,700/mo in net cash flow. My revenue went from $2,450 to $5,800 just by changing my rental strategy. You couldn't get cash flow anywhere in Austin doing LTR back in 2020 when I started looking and you definitely can't get it now.

 @Conner Olsen great vid walking us thought MTR and STR for Austin, i like the strategy, thanks for sharing.