All Forum Posts by: Will G.

@Scott Passman I think you may be spot on with:

"Perhaps stagflation is a better term as opposed to pure inflation since it seems like inflation will occur but with less spending/economic growth" 

Agree 100% we have a super complex monetary system, and i don't believe for a second that even the fed fully understands it. So many cross current forces at play, demographics(older western pop. buying less stuff), offshore banking system,shadow banking system, private equity, reserve currency status, the credit cycle(business cycle) oil price inputs, etc.

Also agree that supply/demand will push prices where they naturally want to be, but i am making a case against MASSIVE inflation, at least in short term (3yrs?) Many see fed "printing money" headlines and default to fears of inflation when it is far from binary, like your stagflation idea.

I enjoyed the article, but it did support my thinking that all the "stimulus" since 2012 lets say, is reactionary to deflationary forces or threats which is the mortal enemy of fiat currency. ( hence the fed 2% inflation target)

I think we agree that the tip of the spear is the banks. That all money and credit needs to be generated on banks balance sheets, in other words, banks (real people who run them) have to be willing to lend those printed fed dollars into the real economy to increase the money supply to chase fewer goods and services, in the real economy, which i.m.o. has bifurcated from the financial economy. 

My point is when you hear fed printing billions via q.e. all that new money goes directly into bonds (major bond market support) or as reserves on primary dealers balance sheets. New to the scene is fed buying equities, which was illegal up until g.f.c.2. This is also japanification of our economy as now the bank of japan owns 50% of their stock market! 

Now fiscal stimulus, Govt programs to lets say rebuild  infrastructure, could def be a hugh driver of inflation as new money gets put to work in the real economy! But again if govt stimulus is just to replace lost productivity, = zero net benefit

Where are we in the cycle?

Something that has concerned me for a while,and not b.p. was the # of homes put on s.t.r. and removed from L.t.r. market. Just seems logical if s.t.r. bookings fall, owners will dump them on the L.t.r. Can we expect this in the states?

https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1241325290565111808

@Scott Passman Can you explain to me how fed printed money gets into our hands? Don't the banks have to lend this money into existence, (in quantities large enough to affect econs)? Don't we all need to be out spending furiously (money velocity) for inflation to be a thing? Everyone is singing same chorus regarding inflation but, low interest rates, q.e., zirp, govt stimulus etc are all in place to FIGHT deflation. So we have a deflationary environment now, and can't the fed just unwind balance sheets, raise interest rates back to trend line, raise bank reserve requirements etc to kill anything above their 2% target? I know i am missing something here, but look at what happened to japan from mid 90's till now. they have double the money printing to gdp as u.s. and have never been able to get inflation above 1%!

To support my thinking, we had massive inflation in housing prior to g.f.c. but that was fueled by banks lending to anyone at any home valuation. So if banks are reserved(risk averse) and people and corporations are already debt bloated, no savings etc how do we get a frenzy of people buying things? 

Another consideration is the 16 trillion or so of negative yielding debt in sovereign bonds etc, could be people expecting deflation and INCREASED purchasing power in the future when capital is returned? Also debt going bad(defaults) is money being removed from the system (aka deflation). A trillion of debt goes bad, fed prints a trillion = zero net effect on "system money"

I am not saying no inflation, and i do think prices on a lot of stuff will rise, just wondering how we get there, especially if oil stays so low which is a hugh input costs for lots of stuff.

You guys are so doom and gloom, come on man, the fed (that caused all this btw) is going to save EVERYONE, Banks, credit unions, trust and mortgage companies, investment banks, underwriters, brokerage firms, hard money lenders, stock speculators, the airline, auto, restaurant,hotel, bar, retail, casino, and travel industries,money market funds, the repo market, the global fx market, the stock market (direct purchases soon), the bond market, the derivatives market (oop's sorry ronin capital), consumer spending (helicopter money only 3 weeks away), your local bowling league and oh yea, air bnb.

Don't worry the largest financial event of our lifetimes, BY FAR, will be over in a jiff and you will be rested and ready to get back to work!

Commercial real estate is in for it, and the everything bubble may have popped.Can the fed reinflate the largest credit bubble in history? If corporate buybacks are off the table (condition of bailouts) the stock market will go NOWHERE. 

Last 6 years buybacks have accounted for 90% of stock market valuation increase.

Do student loans repayments crank back up after the holiday? How about the trillion in sub prime auto debt, fed gonna bail out your car payments?

No two ways around this, central planners (the fed) have thrown us under the bus, with misguided policy's attempting to keep the real, free market economy from operating as it should. 

@Logan Freeman checked the fred site... nationally vacancies went UP to 10%.

The virus crisis is not going to be a big deal , but this will...

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar20/repricing3-20.html?fbclid=IwAR2hX-nx2soRXb2nWuuC65uYuOqkIVi9C10PZAIUPzzKLrGQY340QIpGRb4

Please respond if you have a counter to this article, Has the everything bubble popped?

Virus crisis was only a pin!

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar20/repricing3-20.html?fbclid=IwAR2hX-nx2soRXb2nWuuC65uYuOqkIVi9C10PZAIUPzzKLrGQY340QIpGRb4

#'s still work with the next 6 months empty(no rent)? If so continue, otherwise better opportunities on the horizon, simply due to the fact that markets vacillate between growth and value investing, and growth phase has obviously run it's course

Please, forget the woohoo flu, that was just the pin!

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar20/repricing3-20.html?fbclid=IwAR2hX-nx2soRXb2nWuuC65uYuOqkIVi9C10PZAIUPzzKLrGQY340QIpGRb4

residential housing historic rate of appreciation = 3 - 4% or same as inflation, (minus the bubbles) housing should follow an inflationary environment. Gold of course, tends to move inverse of the dollar, but getting in and out can be tricky plus you have to pay taxes on gains,  deal with market volatility etc.

tips is a good place to park money if you expect inflation.