All Forum Posts by: Will G.

I have torched so many relationships with realtors in my small town because i refused to do deals that were marginal, or totally dependent on appreciation to make sense. Everyone on this forum ignored my posts cause i was always the conservative one who preached value investing over growth. 10 year bull in r.e. has created a normalcy bias that we may have to rethink. Recession is a given at this point, and there are no voices claiming otherwise.

Some will get into trouble with properties like happen with all recessions and I, along with unlimited capital institutional organizations will be there to buy VALUE!

What remains to be seen is if there will be a rush to assets/gold because of the current craziness. 

 make them commit to pay asap but otherwise, eat the losses,.. sorry but real estate is not risk free! And besides you are an evil, rich landlord who should give away your hard work for the good of society!

What is the class? A class "c" will probably have the bumpiest ride due to lower income folks being hit hardest by this.

Last recession vacancy went up to 10% but rents flatlined and did not go down nationally. Does your model still work with 10% vacancy and say a 10% rent reduction? Does your model still work with these new parameters?

You are wise to be concerned because the landscape has changed and no on knows what lies on the other side, and this is a perfect example of why you should buy value (financial cushion) and not count on appreciation in r.e.

Lots of cross currents pushing at the future for real estate

1) Massive deflationary forces are in play and are threatening the "everything bubble" along with the record credit in the world today. If this credit cycle unwinds(defaults) it will be very, very bad for ALL assets and r.e. might revert to trend line.

2) lots of pressure to find safety, and people all over the world are after dollars, which is why the bond etf's are way up in all this chaos. Many will choose real estate as a safe haven.

3) The liquidity crisis is forcing the sale of gold (and bitcoin) which are both going down, so for many loosing a ton of money in stocks does not really motivate one to go out and buy another asset we all watched crater 10 years ago.

4) The role of institutional money in residential r.e. is probably not well accounted for, so is black rock going to need to liquidate a couple thousand houses in your state? Or will they deploy a few billion to buy at first sign of a dip?

5) What happens to the millions of str's bought with leverage if travel is curtailed for a while? I would guess they get put on the long term rental market, so if your town has tons of str's be on the lookout for lots of new inventory in Ltr market.

Does that help? NO, sorry but this is uncharted waters to say the least. What i am sure of is we had a fragile monetary system before this started so how it survives will be interesting! 

middle of a purchase and appraisals are seriously backlogged

Biggest financial event of our lifetimes! Giant, global, macro economic issues need to be dealt with right now, and if the giant credit bubble comes unglued, we could easily see r.e. values go to trend line. Serious deflationary pressures in place now, with gold, bitcoin, and next r.e. in jeopardy. 

Biggest financial event of our lifetimes!

Hugh macro economic threats right now, so please don't worry about this

Vacancy rates went to 10% nationally as people piled up(living together), rents flatlined but did not go down nationally. But still your experience will be hyperlocal. Are you in a area dependent on oil? Wait for defaults

Probably a game changer! Fed fires it's biggest bazooka shot in history and futures DOWN!! This might get a little too interesting for my taste

An incredible response from the fed and shows the danger the historic debt bubble they have blown is in. If it starts to come unglued (defaults) harry dent will be right, $600 gold, 80% off the stock market, and real estate cut in half...so pray they have the tools to restore confidence