@Aaron Mazzrillo Thank you for sharing the chart. There is a little more explanation behind it on John Burns Real Estate Consulting website. I'm not writing this to say the chart is wrong or right, but reading between the lines on their website it appears that it is just the creator's opinion. By that I mean that it doesn't appear to be based on any quantitative analysis. I'm not sure what the Y-Axis is supposed to represent but I think its the cost of real estate? Its not clear.
My 2 cents - I think a lot of the exuberance behind Austin real estate investments has dwindled due to the higher prices but that doesn't mean we are heading towards a contraction. More likely a period of steady, yet slower, growth. I'd call this the "Mature Market" phase and put it between 3 and 4.
I disagree with the assessment of Houston. From their website, this is based on the oil market. However, Houston's economy is much more diversified than when the oil price collapse of the 80s took out their economy. Also, I believe the oil route has run its course.
Finally, I agree that the direction interest rates head is probably the single most important factor to the real estate market. They have been heading down since the 80s but unlike bond yields they can't go negative. So the real question I think we are all asking is when do they stop going down? And, when they inevitably do, will they go up?