Austin Market Outlook

[Aaron Mazzrillo]

I received this email from an agent in Austin. Not going to credit him due to the data not being his, but just a regurgitation of what he heard;

I was fortunate to have lunch last week with Mark Sprague, chief economist for Independence Title Co. and he gave us some very insightful information about our Central Texas economy for 2016-217.

Here are the bullet points:

• Austin is the fourth best economy in the US
• 32,000 to 33,000 new jobs created
• Austin has #2 job growth
• Very stable economy - steady growth
• It’s a seller's market, not a stupid market
• Price homes 95% to 100% of median, otherwise will sit
• If a home is on market more than 45 days, it is overpriced
• Texas property is the most undervalued hard asset in the world
• We are not in a bubble
• We are where California was at in the 1950s
• Appreciation 3-5% over the next year
• Under $250k - 25-35% over the next 3 years.
• Luxury market - buyer's market
• Five major US corporations looking at Austin for a headquarters
• 10,000 companies have moved from California to Austin in the past 7 years
• Our property taxes are absurd

OK, I added that last one in, but come on! I was looking at a mortgage statement yesterday and I pay $850 a month in impounds while my principal and interest payments are $674. The assessor raises taxes faster than I can raise rents. 

Anyone agree with the investment advice; buying houses under $250K and riding the appreciation up over the next few years?

[Aaron Mazzrillo]

My buddy recently sent me this graphic. It is from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. I have any affiliation with him or his company. I just thought it was interesting, especially with so many people saying how overpriced all of southern California is..

I own property in Austin and have been thinking of selling the last few years. Every time I raise rents, the assessor ups the value and the taxes go up. Just seems like a no cash flow game and if appreciation is possibly topping out, I can't see any point in holding any longer.