@Joseph Gozlan don't know if there is such a thing as Tri polar brain, but must be me. We are doing all options you noted above. We don't do houses, but Self Storage, Subdivision development just lots, and Teak Plantations.
1. Optimist- Closing on 5 acres for a future Self Storage location. Won't do anything with it for a year or two. Parking cash in it from a sale. Do the same thing we did before. Self Storage market is still and will be hot. Very local market.
2. Doomsday believer- Maybe not Doomsday totally. Believe Dow will go from 33,xxx down to 28,xxx range. Massive layoffs after holidays, plus company closings. Abnormal food shortages in 3rd world this winter. Euro will melt down in 2023. Definitely believe things are going to get bad in the First Quarter of 2023 for the US. A. Sold off our latest and largest self storage location we developed. Took profits and paid down significant debt load and bought more Teak ground. Although we made a large profit on the sale, we also gave up significant future profit/monthly cash flow and paid down low interest loans (which would have been better to pay with inflated dollars in the future). This was a risk tolerance decision, versus a purely Profit/Cash outlook. B. Moved out of the Stock market. Positioned cash on the side. Developing a plan to phase back in, next year. C. Based on our positioning, whatever happens, when it happens and the degree to which it happens; doesn't matter.
3. Adaptive Investors- A. Started our second Subdivision. Doing ground work. Won't start to sell lots until next November 2023. This is probably the worst time to start any sort of subdivision, but we have a different outlook. We are in the Midwest and the highs and lows in the home market aren't as great or as long as elsewhere. Our go to market is over a year out. We are heavily invested in this project, from other property sales, thus not the Finance interest weight on this project. Our market is upper middle class and higher, moving to the countryside. They have more discretionary funds and more baby boomers hitting that stage. We are far short in the house inventory even though it has increased due to slower sales, but we are still very short on houses, so it is a timing issue on the lot sales. Lumber, Steel and Copper prices have gone down which will help new house construction costs. All of our local contractors are backed up for 6 months out. Plus they can't find workers, thus new homes won't just explode onto our market. B. About 3 years ago started adding Teak Plantations in Belize. Not like a Banana that you have to sale or it will spoil. It keeps growing even in a bad economy.
See your in Plano Texas. Reminds me of an Adaptive Idea, I ran across about 5 years ago. One of our Storage renters was moving to the Plano Area and was going to live in his RV. Problem was his RV was greater than 10 years old and most parks don't allow anything older than 10 years. I thought this was a great opportunity, for someone to open a park that allows older than 10 years. Maybe even charge a premium.
