Originally posted by @Theo Hicks:
Dustin,
First off, do not trust the broker's pro forma, ever.
Instead, create your own pro forma based on how you will operate the asset once you've taken over the operations. Create an income and expense budget for each year you plan on holding the property and set disposition assumptions to the best of your ability. At that point, you will have a projections for a yearly cash flow and profits from sale. Once you have that data inputted, set an offer price such that the overall returns meet your investment goals.
Ha, no (to your first question). It's a weird story, but I once found myself catching a ride from a guy I didn't know late at night who turned out to be a broker and I told him all pro formas were bullsh#t lol. I can be pretty forward at times. :)
I totally agree to do an analysis on any property a person buys. But that's not the angle I'm taking here. For instance, let's say that the pro forma number are reasonable. And you'd make a little money at that price. But, as we all know, there are hurdles to jump to get to market rents typically. Even if repairs/rehab are not needed, you're still going to have to raise the rents...and even if no leases are longer than a month, you'll experience turnover.
So I guess what I'm saying is that if the market CAP is say 7%. And the listing broker is trying to sell the property at that 7% CAP, but at the pro forma rents. So they are trying to sell the property at full amount, while the new owner has to go through the hassle/expense to get there. I think we would all agree that you don't pay the full asking in that scenario. My question then, is if the market CAP is 7%, are you willing to pay a lower building CAP knowing that it will eventually meet or even exceed the market CAP? Or are you only willing to pay a price where the current performance CAP rate and market CAP rates are equal?
I hope I'm not making that too confusing. Maybe numbers are better, sorry for being so lengthy. So simple numbers:
Asking Price: $1M
NOI: $60,000
Potential NOI: $80,000
Building CAP: 6%
Market CAP: 7%
Potential Building CAP: 8%
Market value at existing NOI: $857k
Market value at Potential NOI: $1.14M
So as you can see, the asking price is too much for what the market says it should be at its existing performance. But you think you can get it to actually exceed the market CAP, thus raising the value. How hard do you bargain to get it at market value based on existing performance?