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All Forum Posts by: Devin James

Devin James has started 75 posts and replied 378 times.

Post: New Developments = More Affordable Housing

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237

If you want more affordable housing, attend city commission meetings and advocate for approving new developments. More units = more options :).

Its supply and demand. Every time we build a new home, we add more supply to the market.

As supply increases, demand decreases, which can eventually lead to lower prices if done on a large enough scale.

Unfortunately, many people outside our industry don’t fully understand this.

There's a misconception that builders are price gouging, but in reality, the price of a home is directly tied to the cost of building it.

When material or financing costs go up, home prices follow. And when demand is high, the product goes to the highest bidder.

Companies don’t just pull prices out of thin air—everything is strategically calculated.

Post: Find the Sweet Spot - Market Analysis

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237

@Marie C. SaintVil Expect the project to take significantly longer than expected.

For example, in two different markets, we expected the permitting time to take 2-3 months and construction time to take 6 months. Our permitting took 6 months and the construction took 8 months. This can kill a a project if you don't have flexible financing.

Also, try to have multiple exit strategies. If you aren't able to sell at the price you want, then try to see if it makes sense to refinance and rent it out.

Don't hesitate to reach out via DM if you have any additional questions. Happy to help you through this process!!

Post: What Area of Development do you Specialize?

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @David Bohn:
Quote from @Devin James:
Quote from @Jeff Verreault:
Quote from @Devin James:
Quote from @Mike H.:

@Devin James

I'm curious. But is there a scenario where you strictly entitle lots or maybe take reasonable size parcels that you split and turn into 8 to 10 lot subdivisions to where the profit makes sense? 

Is the risk for a developer that they're paying for the engineering work for something the village/govt won't approve? 

 Hey @Mike H., good questions!

There are many scenarios where we strictly entitle lots and sell them off to a different Builder. And yes, the risk is that we're paying for the due diligence work up front, to potentially get denied in-front of the City Commissioners.

What I will say is that entitling a 8-10 unit subdivision is the same amount of work and time as entitling a 50,100, 200+ unit subdivision, so it makes more sense to go larger. Usually, the juice isn't worth the squeeze for the smaller subdivisions unless you build it out.


That’s so true about entitlement typically a long process no matter the size. We are currently working through town approvals on a small mixed use development.  Zoning Ordinances are often not ‘black and white’ and municipalities will protect themselves or be persuaded by the public when making decisions. 


 100%. This is why development is the riskiest game to play in real estate. But it does have the largest payoff.


 It's good to hear from like-minded investor / developers.  We've been doing land development and entitlement for a little over 20 years, initially as a consultant (civil engineer & owner representative), and I have to agree there is a significant risk to land entitlement.  However, like any investment, when you are familiar with the process, markets, people, etc., you learn how to mitigate that risk.  We're now developing approx 1000 du at different stages.  It's been challenging to say the least, but the rewards have been better than any other investment vehicle I'm aware of.

 Great to hear @David Bohn! What markets are you in? We are in Central FL and have a similar amount of units in our pipeline.

Post: Florida New Construction Market Update

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237

During our monthly market study, Marion Oaks (Ocala) consistently stands out as the area with the highest demand for new construction housing.

Below are some of the markets we analyze, along with their average months of housing supply:

- Palm Bay: 3.4 months

- North Port: 4 months

- Port Charlotte: 5.4 months

- Marion Oaks: 2.2 months

- Silver Springs: 2.8 months

Study Criteria: Single-Family Homes Built in 2022 or later, 1400-2400 sqft.

**The monthly supply is averaged, and our study is conducted in 200sqft increments (1400-1600, 1600-1800, 1800-2000 etc.)**

Is it a coincidence that markets with lower home values are experiencing higher housing demand?

Post: Find the Sweet Spot - Market Analysis

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @Marie C. SaintVil:

@Devin James

Thanks for keeping this information simple and easy to follow! I ran these numbers in the area I'm looking in (Volusia and Polk counties) and it was helpful.  

I've considered all costs except I'm not sure I understand, "contingencies for cost overruns". Can you elaborate on what you mean or what type of contingencies you'd put in place for that?


 My pleasure!

A contingency in this case means setting aside extra funds to cover any unexpected cost increases during construction. For example, if your contractor quotes $7K for windows but the price jumps to $10K when it’s time to order, you’d have to cover that extra $3K.

A contingency budget allows for situations like this. It’s typically a good idea to allocate 3-5% of the total construction cost as a contingency. So, if it costs $200K to build a home, you should set aside $6K-$10K as a buffer. Ideally, you won’t need it—or even better, costs could go down!

Post: Find the Sweet Spot - Market Analysis

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @Marie C. SaintVil:

Hey Devin. What other metrics do you consider when building a new SFH on a single lot, especially when it's your first time?

 Hey @Marie C. SaintVil

Here in FL its much easier for us because we know a few things:

1) The U.S. is severely under supplied in housing units. 2) Tons of people are moving to Florida everyday which makes point #1 even more drastic for us. 3) Interest rates are preventing people from selling their homes, because then they would need to re-trade for a higher interest rate buying a new home, which is creating even more housing demand.

So with this knowledge, now we move to more market specific data, which is what I talk about in the original post.

If a market shows decent growth and demand, then it all boils down to the numbers.

Its important not to forget about any costs though. You need to account for Permitting Cost, Construction cost, Financing cost, Insurance costs (Builders risk & General liability), Holding costs, Selling costs, and contingencies for cost overruns.


Any specific questions don't hesitate to reach out. We're building in Lake County, Brevard County, Sarasota County, Charlotte County, & Marion County.

Post: Find the Sweet Spot - Market Analysis

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @Clay Lehman:
Quote from @Devin James:

Every month, we like to analyze all of our markets across Central Florida. We focus on two main data points:

1) The pending to listed ratio for newly built homes sized between 1,400-2,400sqft.
2) The pending to listed ratio for newly built homes listed between $250K-$475K.

These two data points help us understand the demand for new construction homes in terms of size and price.

Here's some data from Marion Oaks (Ocala, FL) that we pulled today....
- There's an average of 1.5 months of inventory for homes between 1,400-2,000 sqft. This average jumps to 3.5 months for homes between 2,000-2,400 sqft.
- There's an average of 1.7 months of inventory for homes priced between $275K-$325K. This average goes up to 2.5 months for homes priced between $325K-$375K.

Find the sweet spot in your market(s) and get to work!!!

This is awesome, thank you for sharing.  I love how simple yet powerful this analysis is.  Meaning it’s not some crazy algorithm but it is super telling.  Thanks again for sharing this info.  Have you done a similar analysis for Silver Springs Shores?

 Hey @Clay Lehman

We just did this today.

1400-1800 sqft = 3 months of inventory

$250K - $325K = 2.5 months of inventory

We do 200 sqft differences and $25K differences for each analysis, I averaged them out to keep this reply short. I can send a more detailed analysis if you DM me.

Post: How to balance enjoying your life today and saving/investing for a better future?

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237

How do you balance enjoying your life today and saving/investing for a better future?

Naturally, I am a saver.

When I was 10 or 11, I turned down a McDonalds Ice Cream from my parents because I wanted them to save that $1. I think this mindset stemmed from my family struggling after the 2008 crash.

- 2022-2023 I let my spending get out of my natural comfort zone.
- 2024, I’ve been retraining myself to focus on saving & budgeting.

Any helpful tips to help balance this?

Post: Development is More Difficult than Most Think

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @Zachary Harrison:

Thanks for the clarification.  I figured you meant larger developments but you can never be sure if you dont ask.  You are correct about the assumptions for the lot I currently have.  Keeping it as simple as I can for the first one.


For sure, hope all goes well for you!

What market are you building in? 

Post: Development is More Difficult than Most Think

Devin James
Pro Member
#4 Land & New Construction Contributor
Posted
  • Developer
  • Orlando, FL
  • Posts 387
  • Votes 237
Quote from @Zachary Harrison:

What type of new construction are you referring to?  Single family, multi-family, apartments?  I am looking at building a single family home and it won't take YEARS.  I see you are in Orlando so interested in more context of this post/is there something I am misssing.  My market has 15k-20k people to so that can make a differene too.

 Hey @Zachary Harrison, good question!

The development i'm talking about is taking raw/un-entitled land and turning it into a larger development with finished homes/townhomes/multifamily.

For example, we have a few projects (40-50 acres) that we've been working on for over two years that have another 6-8 months until we are able to move dirt. The two years consisted of negotiations with the land-owners, site tests, city planner meetings, city commission meetings, etc. For the next 6-8 months, we will be meeting with the city to confirm the building plans and permitting.

I assume the Single-Family new construction you are referring to is land that has already been subdivided and is already zoned to allow for SFH. Which would shave off significant time.

We also build Single Family homes on scattered lots (.25acres +/-) that have been subdivided. This takes us about 2-6 months for permitting and another 6-8 months for construction (depending on the municipality).