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All Forum Posts by: Connor Dunham

Connor Dunham has started 12 posts and replied 215 times.

Hey Bob, population change includes net birth/deaths as well and is not migration, which can confound the directionality of growth.

Alaska for example has a birth rate above replacement rate, but barely shows any growth because net migration is negative.

Quote from @Account Closed:

I tend to like to invest where there are jobs and where people are moving to

********************

Ranked: Population Changes in U.S. States

A demographic reshuffling is taking place across the U.S., with states in the Northeast and the West seeing shrinking populations. Texas added nearly half a million people, a 1.5% gain, or three times the national average.

2023 2022-2023 % Population
State Population Change Change (2022–23)
South Carolina 5,373,555 90,600 1.71%
Florida 22,610,726 365,205 1.64%
Texas 30,503,301 473,453 1.58%
Idaho 1,964,726 25,730 1.33%
North Carolina 10,835,491 139,526 1.30%
Delaware 1,031,890 12,431 1.22%
District of Columbia** 678,972 8,023 1.20%
Tennessee 7,126,489 77,513 1.10%
Utah 3,417,734 36,498 1.08%
Georgia 11,029,227 116,077 1.06%
South Dakota 919,318 9,449 1.04%
Arizona 7,431,344 65,660 0.89%
Montana 1,132,812 9,934 0.88%
Oklahoma 4,053,824 34,553 0.86%
Arkansas 3,067,732 21,328 0.70%
Alabama 5,108,468 34,565 0.68%
North Dakota 783,926 5,014 0.64%
Colorado 5,877,610 36,571 0.63%
Nevada 3,194,176 16,755 0.53%
Nebraska 1,978,379 10,319 0.52%
Maine 1,395,722 6,384 0.46%
Indiana 6,862,199 29,925 0.44%
Wyoming 584,057 2,428 0.42%
Virginia 8,715,698 36,599 0.42%
Minnesota 5,737,915 23,615 0.41%
Washington 7,812,880 28,403 0.36%
Wisconsin 5,910,955 20,412 0.35%
Kentucky 4,526,154 14,591 0.32%
New Jersey 9,290,841 30,024 0.32%
Missouri 6,196,156 18,988 0.31%
Massachusetts 7,001,399 18,659 0.27%
Maryland 6,180,253 16,272 0.26%
Iowa 3,207,004 7,311 0.23%
Connecticut 3,617,176 8,470 0.23%
New Hampshire 1,402,054 3,051 0.22%
Ohio 11,785,935 26,238 0.22%
Rhode Island 1,095,962 2,120 0.19%
Kansas 2,940,546 3,830 0.13%
Vermont 647,464 354 0.05%
New Mexico 2,114,371 895 0.04%
Michigan 10,037,261 3,980 0.04%
Mississippi 2,939,690 762 0.03%
Alaska 733,406 130 0.02%
Loss
Pennsylvania 12,961,683 -10,408 -0.08%
Oregon 4,233,358 -6,021 -0.14%
California 38,965,193 -75,423 -0.19%
West Virginia 1,770,071 -3,964 -0.22%
Illinois 12,549,689 -32,826 -0.26%
Hawaii 1,435,138 -4,261 -0.30%
Louisiana 4,573,749 -14,274 -0.31%
Puerto Rico* 3,205,691 -14,422 -0.45%
New York 19,571,216 -101,984 -0.52%

Post: Short Term Rentals in Alaska

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133

I didn't find anything offensive in the article and the city does very little to enforce tax collection. Enforcement and licensing would do a few things: maximize tax revenue per listing, ensure legitimate operators are not getting undercut by those not willing file, and remove uneconomical STRs. I've been operating a long distance STR and these licenses largely benefits operators. The jurisdiction I pay tax to spends the tax revenue to generate more visitors by marketing,improving and incentivizing entertainment districts, and other uses. Unfortunately, I haven't seen that level of shrewd spending by the city lately, so there should be strings attached to anything passed.

Post: Location-independent tech professional looking to house-hack in any tax-free US state

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Steve K.:

States without personal income tax typically have higher property, sales, gas, etc. taxes. For example Florida, New Hampshire and Texas all have no personal income tax (although NH taxes dividends) but check out their property taxes. They've got to make up that difference somewhere. You'll also lose some of your tax deductions that real estate investors benefit from. Also some of the states with no income tax are among the least affordable states to live in overall (like Alaska) or the have the highest overall tax rate (like Tennessee). Just food for thought! 

I guess my point here was less about states and more about metros. Cost of living in metros is often higher than living in rural places in the contiguous US. In Alaska and Hawaii, the reverse is true. It is more expensive to live in rural areas in these states than metros due transportation costs and literally how far away you are from a Costco. This would skew the data when looking at things on a state level both ways. Metro areas is a better measure for thinking about taxes, COL and Income.

Post: Location-independent tech professional looking to house-hack in any tax-free US state

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Steve K.:

States without personal income tax typically have higher property, sales, gas, etc. taxes. For example Florida, New Hampshire and Texas all have no personal income tax (although NH taxes dividends) but check out their property taxes. They've got to make up that difference somewhere. You'll also lose some of your tax deductions that real estate investors benefit from. Also some of the states with no income tax are among the least affordable states to live in overall (like Alaska) or the have the highest overall tax rate (like Tennessee). Just food for thought! 

We’re doing pretty good up here!
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?cou...
Remember real estate taxes are the product of tax rate x property value.

Post: Buying subject to

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Dolly Caswell:

Approximately 2 1/2 years ago, I paid off a second and third deed of trust in foreclosure on a property in Alaska. There was still a first mortgage with Wells Fargo. The trustee provided me with a Trustees Deed that said I own it and it is held in the name of my LLC. I contacted the woman who was on the first mortgage and asked for the information monthly regarding principal, interest, escrow, payments, etc. and told her that I would like to take over the loan, as I thought it was possible to do. She was furious that someone had bought it other than her mother. I explained to her that the foreclosure was public knowledge and showed her the Trustees Deed proving that I own the property. She has never cooperated with me and has done everything possible to make it difficult. I contacted Wells Fargo and asked if I could assume the loan or be assigned the loan or something and they said no. I was not a family member, no one had died for me to inherit it, so the answer was no.

Shortly after I bought the property through foreclosure, the Wells Fargo loan was assigned to a servicing company, which I did receive some brief information about from the woman on the loan. I called them frequently to ask about principal, interest, escrows , and of course they refused to give me any information. All I can say is that persistence and the number of Foreclosures happening in Alaska apparently changed the mind of one of the supervisors. I am still not able to assume the loan, but I provided them with all the documents, proving my ownership  and she ( the servicing supervisor.)  agreed to put me on as a “lien interest” in the notes on the mortgage. In theory, this will allow me to call and get all of the information that I need for tax purposes, and to check on the payments that have been made. They will not mail or email me any statements. I will not receive year end statements., But I can at least get loan balances and the pertinent information that I need. I will say that it wasn’t until I asked to speak to a supervisor that I finally got this permission.

My “subject to“ loan is 3 - 3/4 % so I am not interested in doing a refinance now. I believe that part of the reason the supervisor agreed to this was she was able to look back at the time that I have owned it and saw that my payments have been on time every month, and I would imagine they checked my credit, which is quite good. 

My advice to anyone else who might be dealing with a “subject to” transaction is that it’s likely to be very difficult. For this particular piece of property, I would do it again. The woman who is still on the loan lives next door to my property, and for the last 2 1/2 years has pestered my tenants telling them that I “stole“ the property, and that it really wasn’t mine. I’ve asked her to stop doing this, however, she continues to be a nuisance to the tenants. So my answer to that is to prepare new tenants each time, for the likelihood that they will hear this story from her. I assure them that I do own the property and they have nothing to worry about. 

This is a fantastic deal story. Thanks for sharing!

Just a go-nowhere bill meant to posture the sponsor to appeal to their base.

Post: Is Anchorage, AK a good market for STR?

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Timothy Chi:
Quote from @Connor Dunham:
Quote from @Alex S.:

Thanks for the insight, Timothy! Let me reach out to you via messages and discuss specific multi-unit options.

One of the things I’ve noticed with these short term rental revenue tools - you really need to look at the comps they are using and their model assumptions. Some assume current or past 3 months of revenue will continue indefinitely or only assume the days a comp has had historically available to determine occupancy (not counting the days it isn’t offered. As all rate of returns are denominated in time, this needs to be converted. - I like your rental and location I have almost bought in that neighborhood twice in the last 3 years.

 We could be neighbors if you do :)

My renters/guests could be your neighbors :)

Post: Is Anchorage, AK a good market for STR?

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Alex S.:

Thanks for the insight, Timothy! Let me reach out to you via messages and discuss specific multi-unit options.

One of the things I’ve noticed with these short term rental revenue tools - you really need to look at the comps they are using and their model assumptions. Some assume current or past 3 months of revenue will continue indefinitely or only assume the days a comp has had historically available to determine occupancy (not counting the days it isn’t offered. As all rate of returns are denominated in time, this needs to be converted. - I like your rental and location I have almost bought in that neighborhood twice in the last 3 years.

Post: Short Term Rentals in Alaska

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133
Quote from @Timothy Chi:

We do LTR and MTRs in Anchorage with the plan to transitioning one of the units to a STR. Hoping to go live in July. While I don't have the experience yet to directly answer your question, we chose to have ours between the airport and downtown. It provides easy access for travelers who are visiting AK with decent access to tourist activities. We do have a couple unknowns though. One of which was that we initially planned to have this unit as a STR in the tourist season and an MTR during the winter. However with Alyeska becoming part of the Ikon Pass, we will likely get a lot more tourists. I wonder if the rentals in Girdwood will be full and people will have to find lodging in Anchorage. Happy to keep in touch and chat about what's working and not working.


I got a pass for next season 😀. It’s also good to have friends in Utah and Colorado. 

I’m not expecting a big bump for next season though. We’ll see.

Post: How's it going Anchorage & Eagle River Alaska people?

Connor DunhamPosted
  • Investor
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Posts 227
  • Votes 133

Hi Cam,

Since 2020 I’ve added one out-of-state sfh vacation rental to two duplexes in anchorage (I can’t count personal home, but that has been good too from an equity standpoint). I’m currently looking for mixed-use commercial in Anchorage, and putting together plans on some ground-up construction near Willow (5-year project).

For kids - yea, I’ll be glad when I’m down to one daycare payment this August.

Hope to catch you around!