All Forum Posts by: Carlos Ptriawan

Unfortunately, i think Chris is right. check your past K-1s and see if they did a cost segregation and accelerated the depreciation. Sadly there are a lot of new syndicators that done know totally what to do.

Everyone that purchased MF with bridge lender after 2020 is almost guaranteed to lose money….

I heard it started moving to industrial too this year and some debt funds also got hit on different circumstances

2 Votes

Quote from @Jonathan Greene:

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@JD Martin

@Jim K.

i agree with you. in (partial) defense of the folks with the current issues... it's how they have been trained and raised though too, right? the loose plan was to get every young person addicted to their phones and social media - check! and real estate requires some 'old school' skills like: using a phone to make a call. and going to a place. as far as i know, there is no app to 'order a gut rehab for Saturday.' (is someone working on that? let's get someone working on that.)

so i think the 'tough love' is necessary and should be continued. i just try to remember there are trends (and money) behind the fragility.

I think this thread is a follow-up of another J. Greene thread. What a follow up.

0 Votes

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Quote from @Michael McVety:

Quote from @Katie Miller:

3) The management company should be a active member of NARPM or IREM. That does not mean they write a check to get the "logo" to put on their website and look good (I have seen this a lot in my area sadly). They should have designations of education and experience as an example.

Curious about this one @Michael McVety - I just learned that NARPM was pay-to-play. What does getting a NARPM designation do except signal to me that you're a PM willing to spend some money with an association? They don't do any extra vetting before accepting members as far as I know!

Hi Katie and great question.

Any association would be pay to play in the sense that you gain membership and put a logo on your website. So you are correct on that one. That is why designations are very important to me.

As far as vetting, NARPM does do vet certain things about a person (licensing for example) and they do have a process where a person can file a complain through them about a member (much like the Board of Realtors). I do not believe they do personal background checks though.

The difference is in the designations. As an example, the highest designation (MPM-Master Property Manager which I have) means that you have to have practical experience (you need 500 unit years- meaning if you managed 100 units, it would take you a minimum of 5 years), education (24 hours minimum of formal classes- or 3 days for this designation) as well as letters of recommendation from clients as well as peers (other MPMs) and you have to invest time in the property management organization be it locally, state-wide or nationally over YEARS.

So the designation process, including those that are in their candidacy, takes a lot of effort and you grow through the process in many ways including wisdom (a lot actually)! That is why I think that it is a vital separation between a person that just becomes a member and posts a logo up versus a person with a designation.

I tried to condense my thoughts so I hope that makes sense. If not, let me know!

Thank you for asking.

..... I do have 5 property managements for my rentals and how they are different is how the process for repair is different from one to another, but i see someone that's more pop and mom is having so much passion about real estate, that passion is kinda my indicator right now.

1 Vote

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Jim K.:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Jim K.:

@Marcus Auerbach

The thing I always think about when I look at the homes along the golf courses is how much I really don't want to know what goes on in them.

I love strolling around barefoot in my backyard early morning with a cup of coffee before the sun burns off the dew. Fortunately, nobody can see me, because I may not be dressed very well..

I think people who want to live on a golf course love being on display, at least they like the idea of it when they buy it, because you actually rarely ever see anyone. Maybe they only come out at night LOL

ABSOLUTELY! They work all the time, after all! They never have time to hang out in a lawn chair and watch the grass grow.

if you sell for a living, it's always going to make sense to look like you have money and the trappings of success. There's real logic in living on a local golf course if an integral part of what you do in the community is sell yourself as a successful person.

But I think that for most of the people on that golf course, there are deeper, less healthy reasons to do as they do. God knows I struggle with them myself. Doesn't matter how much money my cheap duplex has saved me and allowed me to invest elsewhere. There are plenty of days when I wish I lived in a McMansion and had a hot car that would go vroom-vroom and everyone would take note of my mastery of the art of life.

We all do. But here is a healthy measure of living large. Money is good for the good money can do. And I do believe in a healthy balance. After all, we became real estate investors to improve our lives, did we not?

We have nice things, but they are paid for. I work 6-7 days, but we also go on vacation every 2 months (thanks Tim Ferriss). And we do bigger trips during the winter. This year I went on a motorcycle trip 3000 miles off-road through Patagonia with a guide, a mechanic and a support vehicle, it was a proper adventure absolutely epic. I want to go back to Chile next winter, stay in a cabin and go hiking and fly fishing for a few weeks.

But no yellow Ferrari in my driveway. I'd rather buy some properties.

may I see some of the public photo if it's allowed ? want to see some inspirations from you.

1 Vote

Quote from @Arn Cenedella:

@Carlos Ptriawan

The best part of being an investor is that investors get to make decisions where they place their capital AND then benefit or suffer from the consequences of those decisions.

I can say NO ONE has ever become wealthy investing in CDs.

I can say MANY folks have become wealthy investing in real estate.

I can’t predict what the future will hold but the long term trend (unequivocally) is the price of real estate both sale and rent increases over time.

I’ll keep my capital in real estate not CDs.

well yea except local real estate performance vary greatly when CD is 0% and when CD is 5%.

0 Votes

Atlanta, Georgia

Quote from @David D.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David D.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David D.:

A Redfin export seems pretty useful, but don't they usually use very aggregated data? I'm not sure which export to use as I didn't find historical sales.

it seems like you dont know how to create the dataset. Here's how to do it:
1. open redfin.com
2. search to buy, enter your query: Single Family 2/1 in zip code 95123 for example
3. Choose sold homes
4. In redfin output choose "Table"
5. Then click download, it would create csv file/excel file
6. once you have it in there you can do so much , you can input the data to your prediction model, create your own chart, tableau , SalesForce CRM or directly put to AI software/models.

These are all free.

The difference between Redfin is the data, Redfin has 24 months data while Privy has 5 years data of last sold homes.
I think Lance's data from Resiclub has more 10 years information.

Finding a two standard deviation homes shall not be too difficult when you combine these data/tools.

This is very cool, but I'm only getting 119 homes or so for the past 2 years in downtown and midtown Detroit. ATTOM is getting me well over 1000 for the same time period. Is there a setting I'm using wrong possibly?

I would use privy but want to experiment with more open tools for now.

well just download these 26K sold SF in Detroit,MI for last 5 years then filter the data on excel:
https://www.redfin.com/city/5665/MI/Detroit/filter/sort=lo-d...

privy is good when you want to do more intelligence where there're more "flipping" activity.

0 Votes

Detroit, Michigan

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

These are the cities if one wants to do land acquisition based on data center/AI conviction:

Northern Virginia

Largest data center market in the world with over 300 data centers and nearly 4,000 MW of power
Dense fiber connectivity and proximity to subsea cables
Relatively low risk of natural disasters
Competitive electricity rates and tax incentives

Dallas, Texas

Third largest data center market in the U.S. with over 150 data centers
Central location with excellent connectivity
Low electricity rates and ample available land
Minimal risk of natural disasters

Silicon Valley, California

Hub of tech innovation with nearly 160 data centers
Robust fiber connectivity and proximity to leading tech companies
High electricity and real estate costs, but still in high demand

Chicago, Illinois

Over 110 data centers with 805 MW of power
Central location serving as connectivity gateway between coasts
Reliable, mostly underground power grid
Lower cost of living than coastal cities

Phoenix, Arizona

Rapidly growing market with over 100 data centers and 1,380 MW of power
Affordable power and real estate costs
Robust connectivity and minimal natural disaster risk
Access to renewable energy sources

once up an running though data centers dont employee very many people..

4,000 MW of power for Northern Virginia data centers? That's the equivalent of a city with 4 million people.

I give you some numbers and why this is actually creating jobs lol.
Typical search engine require power of 0.3 w/h. Let say this requires 1kbps transmission
Now AI query requires 2.9 w/h. This requires 10kbps transmission.

With AI, imagine that the whole dataset is one Biggerpocket library or Wikipedia library, so each time there's query, it has to re-read the whole library again and again. This is different than how google works because it works by indexing. In AI, like Peter mentioned above, there're lot of inefficiencies, out of those 1 trilun data, only 0.05% that can be useful. The remaining 99.9995% is garbage. But everytime we query, we force the computer to read the whole thing again and again. This require exponential needs in transistor in chip, electricity, bandwidth capacity and also storage/hard-disk capacity. Now someone and somewhere, all these data/logs need to be saved somewhere, but these are junk data. Now datacenter need to buy more and more storage so either this data has to be kept somewhere or being added/deleted continously. There're lot more engineers required just to maintain those junk lol.

Our current internet is actually not being designed to be capable to handle AI.

one of my job is analyzing these traffic pattern profiling for typical data center / netflix and AI. Most systems today are not optimized for AI. Most technology today still use 1980 paradgim lol ..... This itself would require lot and lot more demanding product if we want the world that's optimized for AI as it create so much garbage.

0 Votes

Raleigh, North Carolina

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David D.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David D.:

A Redfin export seems pretty useful, but don't they usually use very aggregated data? I'm not sure which export to use as I didn't find historical sales.

"4. In redfin output choose "Table"
5. Then click download, it would create csv file/excel file"

Some we people we joint venture with have found that Redfin does not allow downloadable files in their area. (Just a note to those who read this)

Yes in some market the sold data is not public information, for example in Texas it's not available. Long time ago I tried to find these from TX MLS but not available. Also the data from each MLS is litte bit different from one to another. May need to ask Lance from Resi how he gathers more information in specific market.

In "CA MLS", the "private" remark field data has lot more (hidden) information , we use to be able to read it but they close it again. There are lot of detail to particular house on this field.

So while I can find 2 standard deviation house, usually there's hidden explanation in primate remark why such and such house has lower selling price.

1 Vote

Detroit, Michigan

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

These are the cities if one wants to do land acquisition based on data center/AI conviction:

Northern Virginia

Largest data center market in the world with over 300 data centers and nearly 4,000 MW of power
Dense fiber connectivity and proximity to subsea cables
Relatively low risk of natural disasters
Competitive electricity rates and tax incentives

Dallas, Texas

Third largest data center market in the U.S. with over 150 data centers
Central location with excellent connectivity
Low electricity rates and ample available land
Minimal risk of natural disasters

Silicon Valley, California

Hub of tech innovation with nearly 160 data centers
Robust fiber connectivity and proximity to leading tech companies
High electricity and real estate costs, but still in high demand

Chicago, Illinois

Over 110 data centers with 805 MW of power
Central location serving as connectivity gateway between coasts
Reliable, mostly underground power grid
Lower cost of living than coastal cities

Phoenix, Arizona

Rapidly growing market with over 100 data centers and 1,380 MW of power
Affordable power and real estate costs
Robust connectivity and minimal natural disaster risk
Access to renewable energy sources

once up an running though data centers dont employee very many people..

They don't, but it's one of the businesses inside the real estate that's extremely profitable and has a lot of growth for the owner. Datacenter's CAGR is about 20%. Compare that to the Multifamily biz which only has CAGR of 1%. Their business growth is not impacted by employment or interest rates or any changes in economic policy. Our Oregon DC only employed a quarter of the soccer team lol. However, due to this future AI explosion, we expect more DC to be built on-premise or over the cloud. For example, a lot of large S&P has HQs in Minnesota, then expect each of those companies has started to build one inside the state.

in the silicon forest ( hillboro Or) they are restricting new ones.. because the amount of power and the fact that they do not bring the jobs compared to other tech. they are perfectly suited for central wa and or were small farming towns have plenty of land appreciate the few jobs they bring and columbia river power grid.

Really ? we have one data center in city of Quincy, Hillsboro OR and Quincy is seems within one hour driving to Portland. I know from long time ago I heard the cost of electricity is cheaper in OR then AI told me the cost in OR is actually half of Virginia DC. In oregon the avg cost is about 5-6 cents/kWh. Also after I ask this question to AI the city is going to relax these rectrictions by allowing more DC in Meek Rd Parcel. lol You may be familiar with the location.

0 Votes

Raleigh, North Carolina

Quote from @David D.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David D.:

A Redfin export seems pretty useful, but don't they usually use very aggregated data? I'm not sure which export to use as I didn't find historical sales.

0 Votes

Detroit, Michigan

All Forum Posts by: Carlos Ptriawan

Carlos Ptriawan has started 84 posts and replied 7088 times.

Post: Syndication deals gone sour and the GP is now radio silent! What can I do?

Post: For newbies and the BIG MEANIE INVESTORS in the BiggerPockets forums

Post: After 45 + Years in Real Estate - What Works and What Doesn’t

Post: After 45 + Years in Real Estate - What Works and What Doesn’t

Post: Longterm rental IRRs

Post: Using a predictive model to find undervalued properties.

Post: Is the need for affordable housing creating new markets?

Northern Virginia

Dallas, Texas

Silicon Valley, California

Chicago, Illinois

Phoenix, Arizona

Post: Using a predictive model to find undervalued properties.

Post: Is the need for affordable housing creating new markets?

Northern Virginia

Dallas, Texas

Silicon Valley, California

Chicago, Illinois

Phoenix, Arizona

Post: Using a predictive model to find undervalued properties.