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All Forum Posts by: Brad D.

Brad D. has started 17 posts and replied 79 times.

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Account Closed

re: vegas coming back, I agree it will. You mentioned Florida. Miami/Tampa/Orlando are other spots that will have a major downturn and also comeback. FL has older housing stock, higher insurance, higher prop taxes, hurricanes, sinkholes, etc. but they do have the beaches.

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Account Closed what would you expect to get for rent if you got the enclaves at 50k? the trump at 150k? Any chance Las Vegas reverse their airbnb stance?

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Account Closed re: the decrease in rent to $670. That seems a little low, but maybe not.

Does anyone know how much a 3br/2ba sfh that had dropped to 120k rent for in 2012 in good not great henderson type area?

Post: Unfair madness! Landlords getting hosed.

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

One of the problems is that landlords are not a politically powerful group. They are also not sympathetic like certain disenfranchised groups who tend to have their causes strongly taken up by the media.

Additionally you have groups representing you like this one that decided to strategically not oppose rent control in CA:
https://www.lamag.com/citythin...

And then I guess there is a basic market principle that landlords are not really a group that would unite, since one landlord going bust is good for other landlords. 

Basically the only thing that would help an individual landlord is a fair system with of laws where property owners rights were respected, even if the majority and the woke opposed them. 

So actions have consequences and if this is the direction the system is prepared to go, landlords will bite their lip, devise a plan and it will be priced into the sytem. 

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Account Closed  Haha, I don't know. But the foreign investor angle is another one that make make this buying opportunity comparable or even better than the last, despite the fact that lending standards were much worse last time. 

This time, especially with the cold war situation that is developing, there should be a lot less chinese investment dollars rolling into the market. 

EDIT to add:
Also re: Blackstone, I think they and other large institutional buyers bought a lot of SFH in major cities, esp in FL, TX, AZ, CA, NV at the bottom and then dumped a lot of them in recent years at the top. My guess is they are ready for round 2. But I'm wondering if they went as hard after vegas properties as say properties in Phoenix with a more balanced economy.

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

So in the great recession, the peak in Las Vegas was October 2006 for existing home sales. When houses purchased in the month of October 2006 were later sold, the median loss was 65%. 

Question to Vegas experts, especially those with good historical reference:  For a house in a good, not great part of Henderson, currently valued (feb 2020) at 340,000 and rented for 1900:
1. If the price has dropped to $120k in 2 years, what would you expect it to rent for then?
2. How were these properties dealt last time? Was it through auctions? 
3. How prominent were institutional investors like Blackstone in buying the distressed properties last time in LV?

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Jay Hinrichs agreed on the lending criteria issue. The standards had loosened recently, but nothing like 2006.

In 2006 I had left my former industry, started a new business that I had zero background in, and moved states. I knew buying a house at that time was a terrible idea, but my (now ex) wife couldn't stand the idea of 'being a renter' haha. So I decided to pick up a cheap house that I could turn into a rental later, i.e. suffer as little damage as possible while making the wife happy. I got on the phone with countrywide, told them the situation, no job etc. They ran my credit, and said 'you're set.'I told them what I was going to buy. The guy pushed back,said I 'was qualified' for a lot more house, that I should think about getting a more expensive one, etc. I said no.

So with a phone call, and no job, no tax returns, just a credit score, I got an easy loan. It wasn't even a liar loan. I told them the truth. I could have gotten 3x the house with no job and a new business. Btw, I did put 10% down, but they wouldn't have required me to. Wonder what ever happened to Countrywide...

As far as how this time will compare to last time: The lending standards are stronger now, yes. But this economic situation overall seems worse because:
1. Everyone was predicting a recession anyway in early 2020.
2. Coronavirus comes along; shutdown is declared and creates possible 40% downturn in Q2
3. Trending income and especially wealth disparity. We're pretty quickly turning into Brazil, and not just because 'diversity is our strength' but also in the overall acceptance of wealth inequality. I think the nature of technology is to exponentially increase the effect of intelligence and capital as to make increasing inequality inevitable.

So as far as the landing, I guess it depends on perspective. It's going to be great if you are in a position to profit from it, If not, it will be bad.

Post: Unfair madness! Landlords getting hosed.

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@David J. I agree with the initial post. First, the logic behind the shutdown is crazy. Thank god we have Sweden to provide the control group. Check out the Gangelt, Germany numbers. Read Alex Berenson's twitter.

But...and I'm not a conspiracy theorist, promise. That said, who benefits from the current situation. The super rich obviously: they will be buying at a discount soon. The poor seem to be doing better or at least as good ever. Government workers-their salaries are secure as they virtue signal to us about the need to shut it down. Who's hurt? the middle class workers, who don't work for the government. 

It's the same old story:  The top and bottom against the middle. And it makes sense if you think about it. Imagine you're the coach of the #1 college football team in the country. You're watching the #7 team play the #25 team. Who are you rooting for?

So as far as the renting situation. The Government/rich are obviously the #1 team. The landlords are #7 and the renters #25.

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Jay Hinrichs this is from the 2010 NYT article, which is behind a paywall:

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/business/20norris.html

"Already the four big commercial banks JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup have taken losses of $9.8 billion on loans they have repurchased or expect to be forced to repurchase. Moshe Orenbuch, an analyst at Credit Suisse, says he thinks that figure will rise to $20 billion or $30 billion before the wave is over. Other analysts think the number could be significantly higher.

Even now, long after we learned just how bad the underwriting standards were, it is surprising to see how bad many of these loans were. In the second quarter, Wells Fargo repurchased $530 million of mortgage loans. It concluded those loans were worth, on average, a little less than half their face value.

Wells says it has the right to recover some of that from the companies that sold it the loans. Unfortunately, “due primarily to the financial difficulties of some correspondent lenders, we typically recover on average approximately 50 percent from these lenders,” Wells added in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

So far, most of the money the banks have paid has gone to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which used to be government-sponsored enterprises and now, after the bailouts, are government-controlled. But even though they have collected billions, Fannie and Freddie are getting increasingly frustrated with the banks for what they see as foot-dragging.

Freddie, in its quarterly report filed this month, said it was now requiring banks “to commit to plans for completing repurchases, with financial consequences or with stated remedies for noncompliance, as part of the annual renewals of our contracts with them.”

So please correct me if I'm wrong or illuminate on this: The major banks, with shoddy underwriting, made bad loans pre Great Recession. They sold the loans to servicers, who were backed by the govt. The servicers had major problems, thus the fed had to step in. The govt then went t back to BofA,Wells,Chase and said "pay or else." The big banks tried to suck as much as they could back out of the servicers, then dragged their feet before eating the rest. The big banks were partially bailed out on this money they had to eat. Is that it?

Again, I'm not sure I understand this, but I'd like to, as I imagine this is what is going to happen in the next couple years.

Post: Corona Virus Impact to Las Vegas Market

Brad D.Posted
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 80
  • Votes 63

@Jay Hinrichs There's a saying "Everything's fine...until it isn't." 

Chase just increased standard to 20% down/700 fico score. They know something is up. Banks need to be able to offload these or get stuck with . Do you not think that will be harder now?

If things go bad, the banks can get stuck with these or be forced to buy them back, as happened last time in 2010:

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/business/20norris.html

The bottom line: The game of Hot Potato is on. Everyone is playing, whether you signed up or not.