All Forum Posts by: Brad D.

I think what a lot of these liberal "shut it down forever" types are really doing is engaging in Status Signalling..basically bragging: 
When they say, "Oh, I just think we should remain safer at home for 1 year, or 2 years if necessary to keep everyone safe," What they really mean is "I'm so rich, no amount of shutdown could ever affect me; and I can save on my utility bill by watering my garden with tears of the poor!"

What's happening to property rights right now via Landlords inability to evict or have controlling authority over their property is scary. What's scarier is that Property Rights are probably as secure in the US as anywhere on the planet.

 If you look at past past revolutions in Russia, China, Cuba and many others, they involve the government expropriating land from 'evil' landlords 'in the name of the peasants.' South Africa is doing something similar now to the Farmers. The Government gets to enrich itself, be the 'good' guy, and the peasants have their lives improved slightly (at least in the short run). The only loser in this is the evil, feudal landlord who had it coming anyway for his sins against the poor. Obviously I don't think this is happening in the US for many years, and hopefully not ever; but this is a pattern for how revolutions usually unfold. The top and bottom against the middle. 

1. Have dry powder. 
2. Massive inflation is coming long term.
3. But short term, a sort of deflation is coming, as the money supply (cash plus credit) will actually decrease. Massive printing is going on (very bad long term), but credit is contracting severely. 

Buying opportunities will present themselves for real estate in 1-2 years, maybe sooner. Stock market has not bottomed and has much farther to go. This is going to get very bad. All the staying at home, laying around, watching netflix, eating bad food has mitigated this reality; a month or two later, the anesthesia will wear off. 

True about the initial crazy stats of "1-2.2 million potential deaths in the US." This was from Neil Ferguson with the Imperial College study upon which all of this insanity was based on. He also had predicted a possible 200 million worldwide deaths from the Bird Flu in 2005. 

Thing is, these 'experts' only get paid for 1 message: "The Sky is falling." Something like this comes along. They come out with a moderate message on twitter: Crickets. Say the sky is falling... and now they are famous, on tv, get grants, write books etc.  And there is no downside when it turns out the bozos are wrong every time. Follow the incentives.

Here's another example: 
Which law enforcement agency leaders are you hearing about refusing to enforce these endless lockdowns: Sheriffs or Police Chiefs: And why do you think that difference is?

This is interesting. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028

Let me be clear. I definitely think real estate will drop in almost every city across the board. Everyone from zillow to your barber was calling for a recession in early 2020, and then we got the shutdown. 

But we'll have to see just how far this type of thing goes, just how much will it do toward foaming the runways. I was counting on foreign money drying up, if nothing else via the lowered amount of chinese dollars flowing in. However, the great thing about the US is no matter how bad things are, they are almost always less bad here. So we in the US are worried, about how much will real estate fall, and how many years will it take to bounce back. Other countries are worried about currency destruction and possible revolution. Peru had been doing well for 10 years before dissolving their congress late last year. Still a third world country but with almost double the per capita GDP of India, people from peru and other countries are looking at buying an asset in the US almost certain to drop in as their best option available. 

I think you're right; I checked a few and  auction.com had them all listed at happening there on 4th street.

That's good news. I have an Uncle in Overland Park who has been planning to sell at some point than move to either FL or socal. I had been on him to sell last summer but he was dragging his feet. Figured he was now stuck with it for 10 years, but who knows.

 Did you explore buying them in person at courthouse auctions, or does Clark County do that?

 On the one hand you have wealth inequality increasing rapidly, so it would make sense that SF, Seattle, NYC, Boston would have forces working against a drop. 

On the other hand, you would expect those city residents to be really in the know ala investors and be pulling back hard now. It seems like in the Great Recession, the expensive areas city fell first (didn't fall as far), and then rose again first (rising far higher) when compared to less nice areas.

 True on the Midwest houses. I've had so many issues over the years, my blood pressure rises every time it rains. No house is immune. Even a newer house. If the power goes out, you need a battery back up on your sump pump.