All Forum Posts by: Doug N.

@Kim Pham Thanks for posting! @Karen Margrave is right on all counts. 

As someone who has worked in acquisitions and feasibility, I can tell you that my experience has always been thus: long empty lots are that way for a reason. In the Bay area (land of not many buildable lots), it's likely this is doubly true. No doubt every builder in SJ is aware of this lot, and for various valid reasons, it remains unbuilt. 

That being said, it is possible that this lot is ready to go, simply needing infrastructure buildouts - assuming that the thousands of postcards sent to the owner over the years have gone unread, and that he has no telephone service, etc. Not to sound too pessimistic, but it's quite rare to find an open lot in this area. The first tell is the price at 60k for 0.5 acres - this puts raw South Bay lots at 120k per acre, and that's about 1/20th of the real price, maybe 1/30th depending on the exact locale.

 Please let us know what happens! Best of luck!

@Matthew Brill bravely and selflessly writes:

The key players said all the right things, the numbers looked good, and I even had a "30-day money back guarantee" on my EMD! Well, 3 years later, I still get sick to my stomach when I think about how gullible I was...the broker was less than honest, the attorney was less than honest, and the seller was less than honest...and I was less than educated...so I lost a hefty sum of money!

This is exactly why I keep coming back to BP. I learn so much, and it doesn't cost me a cent. (Thank you, Cynthia - that's not easy to write!)

Let us know what happens!

Hi @matthew brill - 

Sometimes it helps to look at the simple essence of a potential deal, ignoring all of the numbers and terms in the first-pass analysis.

In this way, some things become very clear. 

My edit may look snarky and such, but it's how I look at things sometimes, especially when I am trying to get a basic read on a proposal. 

There's a lot to work with here, and I can only advise that you follow your instincts. 

Please let us know what happens, and best of luck!

Hi Theodore!

Thanks for posting the details - it's not bragging at all, it's inspirational!

I like how the outside make-over makes it look a lot larger somehow (not just the photo scaling), maybe from the color choice? First impressions count, and it looks a lot more delicious now than before. You have an eye for this, it seems. 

Take it easy!

Hi Robert!

Everything in life is negotiable.

A single appraisal is just that - one person's subjective opinion.

There are always other properties.

Let us know what happens!

@Rob Murphy Welcome to BP! Thanks for posting about your first potential project. 

@Jon Holdman is right, the goal is more than acquisitions. 

I felt the same way when I stumbled upon this sector - I was pretty excited reading about a lot of the success stories, and I felt a certain sense of urgency, almost like I was being left behind while everyone else was scooping up piles of cash! 

And because I wanted to know how to do this, I started to read - a lot, maybe a few thousand posts, and a few heavy books. And because I wanted to Not Lose All Of My Money™, I started to read between the lines, and I started paying attention to the horror stories, of which there is no shortage, unfortunately. I really forced myself to read the other side of the coin, and not just the positive parts. It's really hard to do this, but it's a required skill. 

I feel we are in the last (long) phase(s) of an REI bull market, and I feel that patience is the best course of action right now - for buy-and-hold and a lot of other strategies. Some things can work - aggressive, disciplined, low-margin and data-driven wholesaling, for example - things that are more insulated from today's (irrational?) market volatility.

You say this yourself: The market is (what I and many others believe) highly inflated - so why the need to dive in now? Why not take this time to build a network, educate yourself and watch from the sidelines, and then scoop up some nice MF and apartments on the cheap when the inevitable market-correction comes thundering into town?

This forum is the best source of real REI info on the planet. Take advantage of it. Lots of folks here are smarter than anyone I have ever met, anywhere in the world. Read the stories - good and bad - and take your time.

You *will* make it happen!

Keep us informed of your progress!

@Nick Hedberg I like your plan, and also that you seem to like reading!

Can I suggest a few books? These are dense reads, but very good. 

Real Estate Finance and Investments (14th Ed), William B. Brueggeman & Jeffrey D. Fisher

You will need a bottle of Advil (and vodka) to get through this one, but if you manage to get 1/4 of it, you're going to know more than a lot of folks. Very complete - everything you need to know. I think it has a lot of the coursework Ben teaches in his CFU (just a guess).

The Depression of 2008 - by Fred E. Foldvary

A good overview of the moving parts in RE cycles and some economics as well. It's only 30 pages, but very informative. 

The Complete Guide To Real Estate Finance For Investment Properties (How To Analyze Any Single-Family, Multifamily, Or Commercial Property) Steve Berges

An easier version of Real Estate Finance and Investments, very good, though I have not read all of it. This has a lot of the analysis formulas you can find here on BP and other places. PM me if you're interested. 

Regarding areas to invest, a lot of folks on BP have extolled the virtues of CA's lower central valley (ie Stockton down to Fresno and then through Bakersfield), saying that it's just like the Midwest except the winters are very mild. I like those areas a lot, and there's quite a population base, larger than a lot of US states in those MSA's, maybe 3mm+ and another 2mm including Sacramento. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_statistic...

You could easily commute up/over there in a day trip from Lovely Santa Monica™, and there's likely to be property for you in every class, price range and demographic. Not all of CA is overheated. 

Keep us posted on your offers, I'd like to know what you decide on!

@Mark Suliman I have nothing on sinkholes or disclosure requirements, but one thing I can tell you is that your keyboard is missing the period and question mark keys. I have a few spares, pm me for your address. Best of luck!

Mr @Michael Quarles is your guy. Look up some of his posts for advice and design/copy examples. And you may want to up you sample size by 100x or so, in order to get more & better leads. 

Best of luck!

Run!