All Forum Posts by: Art Perkitny

@Billy Smith

@Billy Smith

Very interesting synopsis!

Thought I would add to the discussion by running some numbers on the data.

The following three maps show the change in the number of housing units for the 125 to 150k, 300k to 400k, and 750 to 1M home value cohorts from 2014 to 2018, aggregated by Census Division

As was stated, the supply of lower end properties (125k to 150k) has decreased drastically in all parts of the US except for the area around the great lakes region. 

Mid market (300l to 400k) has seen an increase everywhere except for the pacific coast states. 

And at the high-end, 750k to 1M, we see an increase across the board in housing supply. 

All in all, there is no doubt that the supply of entry homes is decreasing. What effect this will have on home values in the coming years is difficult to say exactly however. 

@Roger Verastegui

Here is vacancy data for Rocky Mount, NC

Total vacancy is at 16.4%

What you are interested in, however, is rental vacancy rates. This is competed via to following formula:

The figure for rental vacancy pencils out to be 9.1%

This is about 2% higher than what is considered healthy, but also nothing too alarming

As for affordability

For tenants rents represent, on average, 16.2% of median household incomes

For investors, rent to price ratios are hovering a bit south of 0.5% and trending upwards

Cap rates are 2.9% for SFR

Hope this helps! 

@Seung Oh

What you are saying suggests that you want to avoid a purely speculative investment, and would rather see some steady cash flow and moderate appreciation. I personally agree that this is the way to go most of the time, especially with how heated most markets are these days. 

This resource I put together may help with your search: Link to Home Values by City Spreadsheet

It lists the median home values for all major cities in the country as well as some other ancillary metrics.

If you are looking for a cash flow market with some appreciation I suggest looking at moderately priced markets with positive population growth.   

It's impossible to predict whether or not a market will go up or down with 100% certainty, but by looking at the data available we can make solid assertions as to the trajectory a market may take.  

Hope this helps! 

@Andres Ospina

@Thomas Psipsikas hit the nail on the head

Data sources such as the American Community Survey, also known as the annual Census, can help you judge a location by considering key market indicators, which I list below.

Some of the metrics that I find valuable to understand are:

- Population Total

- Population Age

- Home Values

- Household Incomes

- Rental Vacancy Rate

- Homeowner Vacancy Rate

- Poverty Rate

- Educational Attainment Rate (High School/GED & Bachelors)

- Number of Housing Unit

- Rent to Income Ratio

- Rent to Price Ratio

- Population on SNAPS (supplemental nutrition assistance program) percentage

- Property Tax Rate

- Median Age of Buildings

- Number of Structures by Units (SFR, Duplex, Triplex, Quadplex, etc...)

- Median Rents by Number of Bedrooms

- Unemployment Rate

- Employment Sectors Percentages

- Number of Building Permits Issued

- Foreclosure Rate

- School Ratings

- Crime Statistics

Also take into consideration the direction in which each of these market indicators are trending. This will better help you get an understanding of not just where market is today, but also where it may be heading.

Let me know if you have any other questions, hope this helps!

@Brandon Magierowski

I think the biggest distinguishing feature between Quantmaps and Neighborhoodscout is that we allow users to view all markets for a fixed monthly amount, rather than a one-off payment per report. 

We are more map focused as well and allow all variables to be plotted visually as a choropleth. 

We also offer REI specific metrics such as cap rates, rent to price ratios, and location grades

In the future I plan on adding additional datasets to the system that I don't believe Neighborhoodscout provides 

You mentioned that you learned a tough lesson on the importance of market research before investing in a property. Could I ask what that lesson was? 

@Nati Adler

The map above shows the change in values for Census tracts within Cleveland since 2014. 

The places with meaningful property value increases are going to be Downtown, Ohio City, Tremont, University Circle, and Lakewood for the most part. 

@Brandon Magierowski

The majority of Murfreesboro, TN seems to be B/C grade (on an A to F scale), which is a good thing since you won't really need to avoid any specific area all that much.

The map below shows the risk scores for census block groups in the Murfreesboro, TN area. The areas ranked F and D are such due to the high percentage of mobile home parks. 

As for the population growth, the data you have seems correct. 

Population has been growing consistently since 2010 and so have home values 

All in all, seems like a solid area to invest!

@Lakshmi Nikitha Duggirala

East Garfield is a very rough part of town.

Lets take a look at the data

The first chart shows the various income cohorts within East Garfield.

Note the very high frequency of households making under 10k 

Vacancy rates are also very high, at 16.5%. This is double what is considered healthy in a market. 

Lastly we have high levels of poverty at 43% and 48% of households are on SNAPS (food stamps) 

All in all this neighborhood is very tough. Money can be made here, but only if you have experience with D/F grade real estate already.  

@Nati Adler

I agree with @Remington Lyman, based on historical data, from the American Community Survey, for the past 5 year, property values have not risen in the Euclid area. 

The map below shows the change in values by Census block group from 2014 to 2018 

Hope this helps! 

@Kevin Lee 

What are you investment goals, cash flow, appreciation, hybrid? 

Start by defining this and it will help guide you on where to begin looking. 

Also, states are to broad to make meaningful a suggestion on where to invest. 

I suggest targeting a few cities, which you can select by looking at the relevant data.

Data sources such as the American Community Survey, also known as the annual Census, can help you judge a location by considering key market indicators, which I list below.

Some of the metrics that I find valuable to understand are:

- Population Total

- Population Age

- Home Values

- Household Incomes

- Rental Vacancy Rate

- Homeowner Vacancy Rate

- Poverty Rate

- Educational Attainment Rate (High School/GED & Bachelors)

- Number of Housing Unit

- Rent to Income Ratio

- Rent to Price Ratio

- Population on SNAPS (supplemental nutrition assistance program) percentage

- Property Tax Rate

- Median Age of Buildings

- Number of Structures by Units (SFR, Duplex, Triplex, Quadplex, etc...)

- Median Rents by Number of Bedrooms

- Unemployment Rate

- Employment Sectors Percentages

- Number of Building Permits Issued

- Foreclosure Rate

- School Ratings

- Crime Statistics

Also take into consideration the direction in which each of these market indicators are trending. This will better help you get an understanding of not just where market is today, but also where it may be heading.

Let me know if you have any further questions

Hope this helps!