Thanks for all of the input, guys! This is definitely my most successful forum post in terms of generating good discussion.
The summary of this update is that, after more thorough analysis, I think this deal will cash flow enough to be worth it. For more, read on.
I thought I'd give an update on where my thoughts are with this property. Based on some input here, I decided to really dive in on the analysis of the deal, using the most accurate numbers I could get. The numbers I used in the past were generally rough estimates for things like how much to save for CapEx and how much to expect to spend on insurance.
I can lay out the specifics of my analysis if anyone wants, but here's a summary. The current rent is $785 and the tenant is on a month to month lease. I'd like to keep the current tenant (the seller, who has some experience, says they have been great), but the rent is way below market. (Market rent, again, is about $1100-$1200). My analysis says that if I can get rent up to $900 then I'll cash flow about $50/month. At $1100 (the lower end of market rent), that number goes up above what I'd like my minimum to be ($100/month).
I really think this is enough cash flow to be safe. It covers all PITI, 1 month of vacancy, property management (I plan to self manage for now, but want to budget for future growth), and about $200/month for CapEx and repairs. There's $100/month in cash flow left over to make it worth my time. This works even if there is no appreciation, but I truly think there is huge potential for appreciation given the property's proximity to a downtown area that's being revitalized.
Any thoughts? What am I missing?