5 Main Reasons Why the Real Estate Market Won't Crash

[Michael Keith]

The real estate market is often the subject of speculation and forecasts, some predicting downturns or even crashes. However, based on my extensive experience and observation in the field, I believe there are strong reasons to maintain confidence in the stability of this market. Here are the five main reasons:

1. Strong Housing Demand

Demand for housing remains robust, driven by factors like population growth and demographic shifts. The National Association of Realtors' studies indicate that this consistent demand, particularly in urban and suburban areas, underpins the market's resilience.

2. Limited Housing Supply

The current housing inventory is notably low. This trend, highlighted in reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, helps maintain property values by preventing market oversaturation – a crucial factor that differentiates today's market from those of the past.

3. Stringent Lending Standards

Since 2008, lending practices have significantly tightened. The Mortgage Bankers Association points out that higher credit score requirements and larger down payments are now the norm, leading to a healthier market with fewer risky loans.

4. Diversification in Real Estate

Investors and homeowners today often have diversified real estate portfolios. According to the Harvard Business Review, this diversification helps mitigate local market fluctuations, contributing to the overall stability of the real estate sector.

5. Supportive Economic Indicators and Policies

Current economic indicators, such as low unemployment rates, along with supportive fiscal policies, favor a stable real estate market. Government interventions, like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, also demonstrate a commitment to sustaining the market.

Conclusion:

While no market is without its cycles, the real estate sector shows strong signs of stability and resilience. These factors, coupled with my professional observations, reassure me that a market crash is not imminent. Real estate remains a viable and valuable investment.

Michael Keith is a seasoned professional in real estate, leading the Michael Keith Team with a focus on delivering expert advice and insights into the real estate market.

[Eliott Elias]

Quote from @Nathaniel Epps:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

 People are going to need to sell once we enter a recession, not want to sell. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Quote from @Nathaniel Epps:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

 People are going to need to sell once we enter a recession, not want to sell. 

 most mortgage is still below 4% and these days husband and wife are working, so selling primary is not really an option because then you have to rent and then you have to buy again.

what might happn is people migrating....

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Quote from @Nathaniel Epps:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

 People are going to need to sell once we enter a recession, not want to sell. 

 most mortgage is still below 4% and these days husband and wife are working, so selling primary is not really an option because then you have to rent and then you have to buy again.

what might happn is people migrating....

Right.

People with sub 4% won't sell their house, especially not homeowners. In a recession, they still need a place to live. The last thing they'll tap out is home equity. The investors with sub 4% are likely cash flowing, so they aren't touching it. Even if rents drop they are still healthy.

It's the people with 6.5%-8% mortgages that may need to sell if they  didn't prepare with plenty of reserves, but likely the people that took creative financing with limited equity and/or short balloon payments that have to find a new end buyer and eat the cost differential. Someone who took a creative finance deal in Oct 22 and overpaid for the property, thinking overpaying is not an issue for creative financing, with a 2 year balloon payment is going to be facing the crisis. This amount is still quite low percentage wise of net transactions cause no real sub to person actually buys property and seller finance is very, very low for residential. Commercial is a whole other ordeal.

[Eliott Elias]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Quote from @Nathaniel Epps:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

 People are going to need to sell once we enter a recession, not want to sell. 

 most mortgage is still below 4% and these days husband and wife are working, so selling primary is not really an option because then you have to rent and then you have to buy again.

what might happn is people migrating....

 The interest rate does not matter if no more income is being made. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Quote from @Nathaniel Epps:

Quote from @Eliott Elias:

Here is where your statement is flawed. Supply and demand is at an all time low. The only thing likely to increase with this coming recession is supply. Only then will we see the rapid decline in the housing market.

 Where is the supply going to come from? If developers aren’t building because it cost too much due to inflation, and why would developers spend all this money to build and then take a loss on the sale? I think we’re still going to face a shortage problem until rates and inflation comes down. I don’t really see a crash like people are thinking. I know everyone wants 2008 to happen again especially the investors I just don’t see it happening.

 People are going to need to sell once we enter a recession, not want to sell. 

 most mortgage is still below 4% and these days husband and wife are working, so selling primary is not really an option because then you have to rent and then you have to buy again.

what might happn is people migrating....

 The interest rate does not matter if no more income is being made. 

Lower interest rates entice people to BUY. 

People enticed to BUY, motivates people to SELL, to facilitate there BUY's. 

HIGHER interest rates incentivize people to WAIT. To SIT, and stay, hold to current position. 

People HOLDING, reduces available inventory to buy, for buyers. 

Lowered inventory RAISES value of available, diminished inventory. 

RATES, are for most part, most applicable as a MOTIVATOR on action OR inaction. And with that, most applicable on INVENTORY levels. 

An economic event to FORCE selling, on VOLUME that facilitates moving the inventory needle in any meaningful way would have to be a SIZABLE, very SIZABLE economic event at this point. Not just a recessionary action but one that verges on depression. That is unlikely at this point. 

With a change in political direction, one that presses repatriation of certain industry sectors such as reshoring manufacturing, that makes a deep recessionary action all the more unlikely to near impossible. 

Most probable outlook; this is the new volume basis for protracted period through this consolidating phase. Developer/builders will continue to wisely throttle production and, will continue to "own" to net unit available market in market share presence now held at about 2X "norm" market share. 

[Alan Asriants]

I like to point out a few more things:

1. In order for there to be a crash (which some markets have actually experienced), there needs to be WAY more supply than demand. This is actually happening in many "Up and Coming" neighborhoods in Philly. Especially the Temple are. Prices are getting slashed and there is a property for sale or for rent on every other house. Why? Crime and local policy is forcing people out of the area leaving only the bad things behind. people don't want to move to an area filled with crime, drugs, and homelessness. This combined with the city's approval on a massive amount of construction spiked inventory, then crime went up, and then the rates went up. The perfect storm for a buyers market. Safe markets in the area are strong and follow the exact trends you laid out. San Fran is another area like this

Another example is the AirBnb market. Many speculative investors with over confident numbers purchased short terms rentals in Hot Spots near national parks based on the returns of a short term rental. The problem? Short term rentals are very unstable and market driven. So now those returns look awful combined with high rates. 

The point to be made here, is that markets can be hyperlocal

2. Social media. EVERYONE is now aware of how owning a home is beneficial. And with reels and tik tok, people have so much more information. More people want to invest than ever before. Look at this COmmunity, its HUGE. It was not like this 20 years ago. 18 year old kids know how to househack a duplex and buy a house with only 3.5% down. This used to be information not many people knew.

More information - more demand. More demand, small returns. 

3. Inflation. Real estate is a great hedge against inflation. The cost of EVERYTHING has gone up. So much money was printed that it became reflected in RE prices

Not saying that a crash can't happen, it clearly can and as I said earlier in some areas it already did, but on a national scale it isn't likely IMO

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.

 And here we go....the start of the fall from earnings. Doubt it gets better for Q3 earnings, the rate cut is priced in. The elections are going to be pivotal, but the lid is off things are going to star trading under Q2, if they are not already, shortly and you'll have resistance until  folks see Q3 earnings. If they are even remotely like we have seen, we got quite a drop in front of us.

Kamala has tremendous momentum, but again nothing until post labor day. Too much week to week change. The one thing I can say is a safe bet is getting long BTC. 

Rather than admiring the problem like others have stated. This is what I am doing. 

I've been long small cap ETFs and specific small cap stocks, long BTC, long platinum, long gold, long BDCs, long fixed rate debt(sub 2 year) and long puts against mega-cap. I'm going to unload the gold progressively, the fixed rate debt, and BDCs into mega cap stocks, large cap stocks, and options among both areas. Probably a small % growing into a larger % into years end peaking in Oct24. 

[Paul Azad]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.

 And here we go....the start of the fall from earnings. Doubt it gets better for Q3 earnings, the rate cut is priced in. The elections are going to be pivotal, but the lid is off things are going to star trading under Q2, if they are not already, shortly and you'll have resistance until  folks see Q3 earnings. If they are even remotely like we have seen, we got quite a drop in front of us.

Kamala has tremendous momentum, but again nothing until post labor day. Too much week to week change. The one thing I can say is a safe bet is getting long BTC. 

Rather than admiring the problem like others have stated. This is what I am doing. 

I've been long small cap ETFs and specific small cap stocks, long BTC, long platinum, long gold, long BDCs, long fixed rate debt(sub 2 year) and long puts against mega-cap. I'm going to unload the gold progressively, the fixed rate debt, and BDCs into mega cap stocks, large cap stocks, and options among both areas. Probably a small % growing into a larger % into years end peaking in Oct24. 

 Are you concerned that if last 2 weeks turn into a risk off market downturn like 2022 and 2020, that BTC will drop as it did both those times as it is still one of the most risky of Risk On Assets? And if we are sliding into recession not just a soft landing, that Small Caps/commodities-minerals/BDCs (with falling net interest margins as 10yr falls and rising defaults) may all be a dangerous place to be? 

10 yr down 70bips in 4 weeks, 20 just today, and if Sahm rule violation/longest inverted yield curve ever/and M2 - 4% drawdown all have >95% correlations each with near term Recessions, then maybe long bonds may be safest place to be for a while. I've been buying EDV heavy for last 10 months whenever 10yr above 4.5%

forward PE 16 on sp500 puts fair value SP at about 3800, so could be really bad for still frothy MAG7, so your MAG7 puts should really perform

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Paul Azad:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.

 And here we go....the start of the fall from earnings. Doubt it gets better for Q3 earnings, the rate cut is priced in. The elections are going to be pivotal, but the lid is off things are going to star trading under Q2, if they are not already, shortly and you'll have resistance until  folks see Q3 earnings. If they are even remotely like we have seen, we got quite a drop in front of us.

Kamala has tremendous momentum, but again nothing until post labor day. Too much week to week change. The one thing I can say is a safe bet is getting long BTC. 

Rather than admiring the problem like others have stated. This is what I am doing. 

I've been long small cap ETFs and specific small cap stocks, long BTC, long platinum, long gold, long BDCs, long fixed rate debt(sub 2 year) and long puts against mega-cap. I'm going to unload the gold progressively, the fixed rate debt, and BDCs into mega cap stocks, large cap stocks, and options among both areas. Probably a small % growing into a larger % into years end peaking in Oct24. 

 Are you concerned that if last 2 weeks turn into a risk off market downturn like 2022 and 2020, that BTC will drop as it did both those times as it is still one of the most risky of Risk On Assets? And if we are sliding into recession not just a soft landing, that Small Caps/commodities-minerals/BDCs (with falling net interest margins as 10yr falls and rising defaults) may all be a dangerous place to be? 

10 yr down 70bips in 4 weeks, 20 just today, and if Sahm rule violation/longest inverted yield curve ever/and M2 - 4% drawdown all have >95% correlations each with near term Recessions, then maybe long bonds may be safest place to be for a while. I've been buying EDV heavy for last 10 months whenever 10yr above 4.5%

forward PE 16 on sp500 puts fair value SP at about 3800, so could be really bad for still frothy MAG7, so your MAG7 puts should really perform

 This entire time on the highest of high rate eras, not to be confused with a high rate era, people overextended the quality option on equities and weren't willing to take risk on-- small caps and BTC. BTC/Gold was bought internationally as a hedge against US interest payments, war, and geopolitical concerns. Don't confuse the two. And it'll continue to be a savior-esque option, despite the hate some people push on it. It's agnostic, so if people liquidate that I would be a buyer.

Most PE funds divested from their exposure to (public) small caps to gain some liquidity(see Genius Sports and Apax Partners). As mega caps get dumped, you'll allocate some money into the (quality) of small caps and you'll see this tighten. Once folks over do this like they did Nvidia, mega caps, etc., you then start to pivot back into mega caps. So the trade after this is calls on large/mega caps and buying some large/mega caps. Let more AI-company earnings show no tangible revenue on this. People priced this in spring of 2024 as if it'll produce by eoY 2024-- it may not even produce this decade.

Everything I have done and will do will perform, I've just had to eat the rolling fees. What August has shown, I thought would materialize in April and what September will be would be my May. Same trades put on. I should've known better with bull-ish summer always being a thing, but I thought if we dared skip a March cut there'd be more fear in the market. The  market continued to act like there's no consequences.

My RE focus was post-labor day, but that was more family oriented and convenient with RE cycles.  Think all my focus will be post-labor day.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Paul Azad:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Demand will pick up as rates retrace. That'll negate the supply. The reason prices went up in 2023 YOY is because supply was lowered even more than demand was crushed(via rates).

We'll see a smaller YOY, but not a "rapid decline". Fundamentally, Russell is right. Couple that with the lack of home building post GR and that's made a 1+1 combo equal 5.

also in last 60 days, there're bunch of SFR funds liquidating their houses unsure why, but this month the top secret narrative that everyone already know is we are in GFC 2008 situation in CRE fantasy-land ; so it seems lot of funds in trouble and there're lot of redemption request from investors, maybe it's forced selling of the good performance asset to help recover the bad asset.
 
2024 is extremely interesting Jason, there're lot of factors that keep driving the dynamic of single family, and it's not employment per-se.

I know some funds that are liquidating single family to bid into CRE, there's also some funds that are divesting their real estate exposure and putting it more into other cyclical things(like oil & preparing for bitcoin) these are more macro funds not REI funds.

CRE opportunities have turned into CLO. The bitcoin strategy (short term) has been magnificent. Oil is going to be the most interesting at this point.

Oil is going to get worse, because it will get better.... 

I can feel people saying "but drill-baby-drill".... Yeah, exactly. What does more supply do? Increase profits, no. It drops market price. 

And it's been indicated that to resolve geopolitics of E.European situation, hit em where it hurts, ppb, as in pump market supply, crash ppb, eviscerate RU oil revenue, leverage to end a war. 

So I suggest people DON't run out and start acquiring oil stocks at random, it's a complex situation. 

If one want's a safer place to play in that arena I'd suggest to follow the Oracle of Omaha and look into the transportation leg of O&G, more volume = more transport = more revenue = more profits. 

100% correct, but wasn't expecting someone on an REI forum to come at energy like this. Let me correct myself-- energy is going to be most interesting thing at this point.

The reliability, acquisition, and demand. 

A step further; If I see that D.T. is certain, real -world certain to win, I'm going to be going so DEEPppppp into NG position and options it's gonna be butt puckering. Were talking I'm mulling going long options in 7 figure ratios, I am that certain. 

How do ya end a war with an O&G baron invading a nation? Ya remove the demand. 

USA has the ability, now today, to supply 100% of Europe's gas needs. I think it starts there because it can be done via executive order in 1hr. I think this is what D.T. has eluded to. 

Imagine he did that, started shipping 100% match to RU supply. How much would Putines butt pucker. 

Cause after that could open oil taps and let that flow. Collapsing RU econ in 30 days or less. There market would crash same day. I doubt Putin would survive the month. 

All because someone had the ballz to do it. 

Point is, I agree, I think it's gonna be boom time of net export in a BIG way.

There's still over 3 months to the election, and a possible nominee swap on the Democratic side. While I do believe 2024 will be a red wave, and have stated so before, I'm only putting positions post Labor Day or as early as after the DNC.

The energy play from DJT won't just be a source of war-reckoning in Russia and even Israel, it'll be the biggest game changer in the arms race of AI and how to support it. It'll calm any nerve China has about attacking Taiwan, and may even lead any notion of that threat falling adrift. You bet if we get a second term with Biden, if he remains, the chances of China tapping on Taiwan's door is imminent. 

There's more than one trade to put on. Right now, as I said in an another thread months ago, once the rate cut is near the small cap: large cap ratio will tighten. The next trades are oil producers, defense stocks, and mega cap tech after their reckoning. 

Energy will be the most weaponized and in demand area for the rest of our lives.

 And here we go....the start of the fall from earnings. Doubt it gets better for Q3 earnings, the rate cut is priced in. The elections are going to be pivotal, but the lid is off things are going to star trading under Q2, if they are not already, shortly and you'll have resistance until  folks see Q3 earnings. If they are even remotely like we have seen, we got quite a drop in front of us.

Kamala has tremendous momentum, but again nothing until post labor day. Too much week to week change. The one thing I can say is a safe bet is getting long BTC. 

Rather than admiring the problem like others have stated. This is what I am doing. 

I've been long small cap ETFs and specific small cap stocks, long BTC, long platinum, long gold, long BDCs, long fixed rate debt(sub 2 year) and long puts against mega-cap. I'm going to unload the gold progressively, the fixed rate debt, and BDCs into mega cap stocks, large cap stocks, and options among both areas. Probably a small % growing into a larger % into years end peaking in Oct24. 

 Are you concerned that if last 2 weeks turn into a risk off market downturn like 2022 and 2020, that BTC will drop as it did both those times as it is still one of the most risky of Risk On Assets? And if we are sliding into recession not just a soft landing, that Small Caps/commodities-minerals/BDCs (with falling net interest margins as 10yr falls and rising defaults) may all be a dangerous place to be? 

10 yr down 70bips in 4 weeks, 20 just today, and if Sahm rule violation/longest inverted yield curve ever/and M2 - 4% drawdown all have >95% correlations each with near term Recessions, then maybe long bonds may be safest place to be for a while. I've been buying EDV heavy for last 10 months whenever 10yr above 4.5%

forward PE 16 on sp500 puts fair value SP at about 3800, so could be really bad for still frothy MAG7, so your MAG7 puts should really perform

 This entire time on the highest of high rate eras, not to be confused with a high rate era, people overextended the quality option on equities and weren't willing to take risk on-- small caps and BTC. BTC/Gold was bought internationally as a hedge against US interest payments, war, and geopolitical concerns. Don't confuse the two. And it'll continue to be a savior-esque option, despite the hate some people push on it. It's agnostic, so if people liquidate that I would be a buyer.

Most PE funds divested from their exposure to (public) small caps to gain some liquidity(see Genius Sports and Apax Partners). As mega caps get dumped, you'll allocate some money into the (quality) of small caps and you'll see this tighten. Once folks over do this like they did Nvidia, mega caps, etc., you then start to pivot back into mega caps. So the trade after this is calls on large/mega caps and buying some large/mega caps. Let more AI-company earnings show no tangible revenue on this. People priced this in spring of 2024 as if it'll produce by eoY 2024-- it may not even produce this decade.

Everything I have done and will do will perform, I've just had to eat the rolling fees. What August has shown, I thought would materialize in April and what September will be would be my May. Same trades put on. I should've known better with bull-ish summer always being a thing, but I thought if we dared skip a March cut there'd be more fear in the market. The  market continued to act like there's no consequences.

My RE focus was post-labor day, but that was more family oriented and convenient with RE cycles.  Think all my focus will be post-labor day.

There is SOooo much more going on here than is readily visible to the novice eye. 

Think, wouldn't a "bad" jobs/economic read be a GOOD thing?     Why good? Because that's exactly what the Fed has been turning the thumb screws to achieve. 

So by finally hitting that bruising pain point, that means light at end of rate tunnel. 

So wouldn't markets start pricing in the impending rate drop, the resulting easing on lending, resulting added liquidity, resulting economic increase...... 

Apparently not. Instead, a rotation kicks off........ Huh....... 

Is this WS telling K.H. to get bent, that there gonna do what there gonna do and too bad for how it tanks election efforts? Because it will, kind of hard to promote yourself as the great "Captain" as the ship under your command burns..... 

Everything I am seeing is just evidence of the conflict between banking and politics. 

Now fruit for thought, I liquidated nearly 30% of my positions immediately prior to this rotation, and reallocated additional 40%.... Was I lucky????    I can assure nobody adjusts 70% of holdings for "funsies". 

This is exactly as I am speaking, a rotation. Intentional, with forethought, planned, designed and anticipated. 

I don't know how low it goes but my spidy-sense is it's a double task-action, and one of those is to generate a "crisis" to allow the "savior" to come forward. And wouldn't ya know it, just in time for polling open.... What a coincidence of timing.... 

For the average person/novice to understand, the smoking gun should be a simultaneous market sell-off and BTC selloff.... That = stockpiling cash..... Why would those stockpile cash during inflationary environment......    It's a transitory action. Wait and see, it's a rotation action, a planned strategic deflationary event meant to mother-f#%k the retail investor.     Watch for when starts hitting those cap-call levels, actuating forced sells...... 

Which again, people should later ask how such happens in a "free market system".... How does coordinated events on such scale happen? Group think.... really... At some point people gotta start admitting what's right in front of everyone's face.

Watch this week and then tell me how "non-political" it all is.......  

[Paul Azad]

"Which again, people should later ask how such happens in a "free market system".... How does coordinated events on such scale happen? Group think.... really... At some point people gotta start admitting what's right in front of everyone's face. Watch this week and then tell me how "non-political" it all is......."

James, I don't know if the large market movements/rotation need a "coordinated" explanation. My buddy is at a hedge fund and the same Greed/Fear that drive a retail investor often drive his decisions too. He describes it like a big game of musical chairs with having to be in positions which are winning because his competition is in those positions and then try to guess when to get out before everyone is trying to get out at the same time so as not to be left without a "chair" or taking the loss. 

Friday, unemployment data/PMI data shocked the market a bit, when just 2 days earlier Jerome Powell said the labor market "was normalizing". Then last night Asian markets digested that their largest export market (USA) may be slipping into Recession, so Nikkei _Japan down 13% worst loss in a day since 10/1987, Korea/Thai etc all down big, so now SP500/Nasdaq/Russel/Bitcoin/Ethe all down big as they digest the near term risks, price in higher risk of recession/unwind the Japanese Yen carry trade/rotate from over-valued AI stocks with no near term profitability/Buffet dumping Apple/BOFA etc/and digest domestic politics ( I agree with you that Dems have low chance of winning, whoever runs, due to low turnout from bad economy/inflation damage) but no "coordination" is really necessary to explain the market movements.

[V.G Jason]

The market moves profoundly, this is what people usually miss. Once people smell the air, they'll all pollute it in efforts to not get stuck in it.

There'll be a short term rebound for everytime the news mentions the Fed's interference, but there's more depth for this to be to hit. We're just around the topsies of it; the start of the fall. 

This was going to happen as soon as either the market gave us the answers we're looking for. I just hope the savior doesn't come in a nick of time and let some of this digest more. We should have a hard-ish 3 months. I don't think we see 52 wk lows for the most part, but I am anticipating we test some for equities. Hard assets will be next. 

[Chris Seveney]

@V.G Jason

I saw today that 30% of jobs now in this country are federal government or government contractors

We cannot live off trillions of dollar deficits every year - employment is actually negative this year without the government.

People lose jobs = cannot pay homes = homes get sold at discount = reset appraisals / lending…

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@V.G Jason

I saw today that 30% of jobs now in this country are federal government or government contractors

We cannot live off trillions of dollar deficits every year - employment is actually negative this year without the government.

People lose jobs = cannot pay homes = homes get sold at discount = reset appraisals / lending…

 You're not wrong, just the sold at discount part I think the floor is going to be higher than people think. Simply due to lack of inventory, a scarcity play, and other institutional investors wanting to manage the short. FOs like me now are playing ball, we weren't this aggressive 20 years ago. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@V.G Jason

I saw today that 30% of jobs now in this country are federal government or government contractors

We cannot live off trillions of dollar deficits every year - employment is actually negative this year without the government.

People lose jobs = cannot pay homes = homes get sold at discount = reset appraisals / lending…

 You're not wrong, just the sold at discount part I think the floor is going to be higher than people think. Simply due to lack of inventory, a scarcity play, and other institutional investors wanting to manage the short. FOs like me now are playing ball, we weren't this aggressive 20 years ago. 

Chris, immediately 1st thing that came to mind when read this was Dec 1991, USSR. 

I remember watching on the news as waves of government employees were shown looking dazed and confused, because there "safe" gov job was just.... gone. 

Scarry to think we are there ourselves now, and we are, we are.... 

We (USA) are way WAY past the point of no return on national debt. It's not only mathematically impossible we ever repay it, we are also at the door step of mathematical impossibility to service it.... We are entering an era where anything and everything, including every insane way-out-there theory is plausible because where we are IS a way-out-there position. 

The fact's are the USA is bankrupt. That ship sailed a long time ago, we are living off "credit cards" now to a really significant degree. So what happens next???? 

The only question is how well, and for how long, the US can play "kick-the-can"..... And for that game, US is all-time gold medalist world champ's, so IDK.... 

But when that comes to a reckoning, without doubt it will be something that changes the very landscape of the country and world. 

I do not think it will be nearly as simple as a "drop" or "crash" of any kind. It's far too big an event and fundamental. So I see it happening in connection with a currency swap. It has to. That is next chapter of can-kicking. 

And in such, I see assets of fundamental use skyrocketing vs collapsing. Food, water, shelter, the fundamental human needs. Now add internet and connectivity because as much as one can live without it perception is that one can-not, and there is societal truths to that. 

Although, the "right" trans-national state level conflict of aggression (WWIII) could be a big can-punt that buys a few more decades. Cost millions of lives yes, but it could work financially speaking. Or, lend a good excuse of a currency swap with ability to blame a villain for causality. 

If we are going there though, I see powers that be pumping things up to maximum pressure before letting it go, because they can, and it's what people do, they get greedy.