Memphis TN 2017 Housing Report and outlook on 2018

Memphis TN 2017 Housing Report and outlook on 2018

Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2015 · 435 posts · 300 votes

For those interested in the Memphis TN Real Estate Market: 

2017 Year-End Update

Home Sales
For the second year in a row, average home sales prices in Memphis and Shelby County have reached a record high.

Average home sales prices topped $165,644 in 2017, up 5% from last year's record high of $158,463.

Total home sales volume reached it's highest level since 2006, and was the fourth highest amount ever recorded at $3.13 billion, up 13% from $2.78 billion in 2016.

In 2017 there were the most home sales recorded since 2007 with 18,877 sales, up 8% from 17,516 sales recorded in 2016.

Every ZIP code in the county had an increase in average sales price last year and 24 of 33 ZIP codes had an improvement over 2016 in the number of home sales recorded.

Over 7,500 home sales, 40% of all home sales, were by cash buyers meaning no mortgage was taken at the time of sale.

The median sales price for 2017 was $130,000, up 5% from 2016.

Home sales over $500,000 were up 28% from last year with 648 recorded for the year compared to 505 recorded in 2016. Home sales valued over $1M were down 6% from last year with 48 recorded compared to 51 in 2016.

-Data Source: Chandler Reports

As far as my outlook on 2018. Inventory is getting harder and harder to find for many investors. I am seeing a lot of newbies wanting to get started in the area. We are getting outbid frequently at the courthouse auctions. That being said with low supply come high demand. We are getting calls from investors all over the country/world wanting to buy rentals in Memphis most of our turnkey properties that we sell still fit "The 1% Rule" which is a great return compared to other markets. There is still a great affordability level here with average home prices at $165k. 

I am bullish on 2018 real estate market here and feel home prices will continue to climb probably around the same as 2017 so around 4-7% appreciation. There will always be a demand for clean, safe and well managed rental properties in Memphis and with other markets being even more overpriced and oversaturated investors will continue to look towards Memphis for cash flow investment rental properties. 

I am curious to see what other people think about 2018 market here in Memphis?

12Reply
37 views

Most Popular Reply

Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
8y
Yael Fuerst I’m not an expert but I think you need to be careful in that zip code. The area can vary greatly. General areas to avoid in Memphis are frayser and orange mound. Some good locals who can provide more insight are Douglas Skipworth Elizabeth Wilson or Curt Davis
See this reply in the discussion

23 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Real Estate Investor · Memphis, TN · Member since 2016 · 940 posts · 695 votes
    8y

    @Sean Tagge - That is great info!  Thanks for sharing!   

    I'm curious if the Chandler report included any information about changes in the rental market? Changes in percentage of non-owner occupants of SFH? Also I find it incredible that 40% of all home sales in Memphis were by cash buyers! Do you have any idea how that compares to other cities? or in Tennessee? Do you assume those were primarily REIs?

    Thanks again!  Hope to make it back to coffee on Weds soon! :)

  • Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2015 · 435 posts · 300 votes
    8y

    Hey @Elizabeth Wilson . It doesn't say much about about non-owner occupants but I would assume there are other studies on this. 

    The 40% of home sales were to cash buyers is probably high compared to other markets. This is most likely due to large hedge funds buying 1000's of properties each year in cash and also investors buying for fix and flip/hold (turnkey companies and retail flippers). 

  • Real Estate Investor · Memphis, TN · Member since 2016 · 940 posts · 695 votes
    8y

    @Sean Tagge - That makes sense.  Thanks!

  • Real Estate Investor · Collierville, TN · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 11 votes
    8y

    @Sean Tagge - This is good information! 

  • Dyersburg, TN · Member since 2015 · 3 posts · 3 votes
    8y

    This is some very interesting information.  I am graduating college in May and moving back home to Memphis where I have accepted a full time job.  I am interested in buying a small multifamily to live in and rent out the other unit/units but as Sean said, demand is high and supply is low.  Does anyone have any suggestions or advice?   I would love to get some advice from some experienced investors and would be interested in working and learning from anyone willing to help.  I am still in town most weekends so if anyone needs help where I can learn some basics I would be interested.  Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    8y
    Sean Tagge thanks for posting. That’s good news since I plan on buying several more in Memphis this year. Really informative. I would agree with you on housing prices continuing to rise. I may not be as bullish as you at 4-7 percent but I would be comfortable with saying around 4 percent. That’s what I’ve seen from other similar reports too. On another interesting note, I read an interesting article the other day about cities in the US that we’re attracting the most millennials. I believe Memphis was number 9. As a millennial myself, I find that very encouraging as millennials will soon be the dominant consumer (and probably renter) generation
  • Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2015 · 435 posts · 300 votes
    8y

    @Jacob White my #1 advice is go to the local REIA its called MIG (Memphis Investors Group) here. Also, I am happy to talk at any of the networking events my team puts on We meet up for coffee every Wednesday morning and also every second Tuesday of the month at our office from 5-7 pm. Do not be discouraged there are still plenty of great deals to be had here in Memphis even for people just starting out.

    @Caleb Heimsoth I read that millenial report as well good stuff. 

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2015 · 1 post · 2 votes
    8y

    Here is a direct link to the article that Caleb mentioned:

    tl;dr

    cities listed are:
    • Charlotte, North Carolina
    • Fargo, North Dakota
    • Memphis, Tennessee
    • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
    • Athens, Ohio
  • Simi Valley, CA · Member since 2017 · 19 posts · 21 votes
    8y

    Will this have an effect on the housing market?

    FedEx investing $1 billion to expand its Memphis hub, improve network

    https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/424574002

  • Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2015 · 435 posts · 300 votes
    8y

    Great article you found there @Paul Comer . I think with FedEx investing $1B into expansion will create more stable jobs for hardworking tenants in Memphis. This will create more jobs and increase the demand for clean and safe rentals. It will make an increased demand for those rentals near the airport where FedEx is expanding. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2017 · 5 posts · 1 vote
    8y

    Do you have advice of what areas are good to find "safe and clean" multi-family units in Memphis? And which areas we might avoid?

  • Hallandale, FL · Member since 2016 · 45 posts · 9 votes
    8y

    Hi,

    Jumping in on this thread since it seems relevant to my dilemma. 

    I was told by an investor looking to raise cash that he has a 72 unit multi family property in zip code 38127. He told me that he is doing renovations and has received offers for $1.9 mil to sell. some background - he paid about $525,000 and is putting in about $500,000 in renovations.

    Based on some dry research on the area I see that crime and schools are very bad and there's a negative migration (-12%) from this area.

    Is he trying to con me? are things developing so much in the area that are causing prices to rise so much?

    I'd appreciate any input you have thanks

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    8y
    Yael Fuerst I’m not an expert but I think you need to be careful in that zip code. The area can vary greatly. General areas to avoid in Memphis are frayser and orange mound. Some good locals who can provide more insight are Douglas Skipworth Elizabeth Wilson or Curt Davis
  • Hallandale, FL · Member since 2016 · 45 posts · 9 votes
    8y

    @Caleb Heimsoth Thanks, it looks like it is in the Frayser area.

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    8y

    @Yael Fuerst then you should proceed with caution.  Look at what the average rent is per unit.  A lot of multifamily in Memphis is in rough areas.  If the rent is 500 a unit for example that can be a tough tenant base

  • Curt DavisBusiness Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Memphis, TN · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y

    Stay away from 38127

    Curt Davis - KAIZEN Realty538 Reviews
  • Flipper/Rehabber · Stockton, CA · Member since 2018 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Hello everyone,

    We are looking into purchasing our first real estate investment prop. And we happen to come across a property around the 38125 zip code. 3 bd 2 baths 1900 sqft. We are hoping to purchase it for $120 - $125k. Current estimated value $144k. We're newbies and wanting to get some input. Thanks in advance! :)

  • Investor · Lehi, UT · Member since 2015 · 435 posts · 300 votes
    7y

    Hello @Diohne Cortez

    Well I cant tell you much without an address. My question is how much in repairs will the property need? Ya sure you can buy it for $120k but does it need $5k or $30k in repairs? 

    We always check the big ticket items- age/condition of the: roof, Water heater, HVAC, and floors. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Stockton, CA · Member since 2018 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Hi @Sean Tagge !

    Thanks for the response. The address is

    4555 Kings Grant Dr. Memphis, TN 38125

    It looks like its in a great condition. I'm currently contacting the seller to provide some more pictures on this property.

    This will be an out of state buy, so I will definitely have to look into those big ticket items more closely. Thanks for the advice!

  • Honolulu, HI · Member since 2017 · 247 posts · 315 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Diohne Cortez:

    Hi @Sean Tagge !

    Thanks for the response. The address is

    4555 Kings Grant Dr. Memphis, TN 38125

    It looks like its in a great condition. I'm currently contacting the seller to provide some more pictures on this property.

    This will be an out of state buy, so I will definitely have to look into those big ticket items more closely. Thanks for the advice!

    @diohne cortez

    what kind of info are you looking for?

    I have a 2 properties less than 2 miles away and a couple of friends have one each around 2 miles away

    edit: I own 3 properties within 2 miles and know 2 friends that own 2 more

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Stockton, CA · Member since 2018 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    Hi @Steve K.

    That's so awesome about your properties! Are those properties near the one we're looking at purchasing (4555 Kings Grant Dr. Memphis, TN 38125)?

    If so, what are your thoughts on purchasing it for $120k? We'd like to be able to rent it out. I've been doing some research and we can probably rent it out for about $1200 to get a positive cash flow.

  • Honolulu, HI · Member since 2017 · 247 posts · 315 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Diohne Cortez:

    Hi @Steve K.

    That's so awesome about your properties! Are those properties near the one we're looking at purchasing (4555 Kings Grant Dr. Memphis, TN 38125)?

    If so, what are your thoughts on purchasing it for $120k? We'd like to be able to rent it out. I've been doing some research and we can probably rent it out for about $1200 to get a positive cash flow. 

    @diohne cortez

    yes, that is what I am saying, I know of 5 properties within 2 miles, I visited them in oct 2017

    I bought in summer 2012, and paid turnkey prices from Memphis Invest, so I cannot tell you what the property is worth 

    my friends bought about a year later

    not sure about the rent either, my closest house is at $1285, but is in a nicer neighborhood next to a lake 

    I have one a little to the north of yours that is at $1400, but it is a BIG house in a good neighborhood too

    my third house and my friends' houses rent for less than $1200, but the neighborhoods are not as good

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles · Member since 2018 · 32 posts · 17 votes
    7y

    Hi Sean,

    It's been a year since this report. Any pertinent updates on the market? I'm reading that the rental market and job growth remain steady, some fluctuations in terms of migration in/out of some communities and government worker jobs (stable) continue to decrease. 

    AWe're new investors also and are targeting this market. We were provided a list of properties in Rozelle/Cooper-Young (38114), Nutbush (38108), Whitehaven (38109) - how are those areas? We read Orange Mound and Frayser were rough areas but my research didn't reveal that - which makes our intel not so reliable. Any references for PMs or Real Estate Agents locally? Truly appreciate any information. We're also open to partnering with the right investor in the area!

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.