Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[James Hamling]

WOW! Wowy wow WOW!

Playing around with market data feed, I pull the complete MN main Twin Cities and extended area market data. 1.2 months inventory supply! ONE point 2. That's BONKERS! 

All time record low inventory for previously owned. I add in New Con and it get's to 1.5. 

That's as clear cut as it get's. That is what I would call "Crash-Proof" if there were such a thing. 

[James Hamling]

Lol, Homes for sale, the line is literally on the bottom of the chart, like it's about to go below the chart itself, lol. 

Some months ago I predicted a forecast that the only "crash" would be in inventory, that home owners would simply pull back, and that drop would insulate any price drop potential. Feel free to go to early pages of this thread and see my statements of this 5 months ago. Well, here it is, exactly as forecasted. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris John:

I know I've pointed this out, but I still think the comparison should be price per square foot.  To me, with low interest rates and easy money, that's a great time to trade up into a larger house.  With higher interest rates, I'm thinking that more smaller houses are being sold.  So, are we seeing a price drop because houses are actually getting cheaper or are more smaller houses selling which makes it look like prices are coming down?  No idea. 

I'd like to see @Greg R. and @James Hamling come up with competing sets of data and argue about it though!  haha.

Great idea Chris. There could be something to the price per Sqft angle. Not sure how to get that data... any suggestions?

And there are no competing sets of data. There is me producing current monthly sales data from the MLS and public records (via realtor.com & redfin), and there's James who produces quarterly data from Q2 2022 and then tries to pretend that those are current market data sets 😂

Exactly how do you have MLS data? Are you licensed? I am a licensed. I am a R.E. Broker actually, what are you?

My data is actually from the MLS. It was noted right on the postings I made. Data via Infosparks which is the ACTUAL data feed of/from MLS. realtor.com is NOT the MLS, it's kind of directly in there name, same for Redfin, so a little Edu. for ya there.

I also posted from FRED, which is the Federal Reserve. That anyone can access. But to get the actual MLS data feed, sorry you gotta be licensed for that and have a license for access generally obtained via ones membership to localized NAR chapter, and NAR itself, like I have.

For someone who knows so little, and get's so much wrong, the aggressiveness is interesting, to say the least. Reminds me of my university days and the psyc class discussions on Malignant Narcissism. 

Ha! So MLS data is super confidential then? Only realtors have information that's contained in the MLS? Sorry, not the 1990s anymore bud. I'm not licensed now, but I actually was at a time. I have more access to data now than what I did as a licensed realtor w/ access to the MLS over 20 years ago 😂. I'm not talking about notes on a listing or trivial things like that either. I'm talking about volume, sales prices, number  of new listings, etc. 

Per Redfin: "Since Redfin is a brokerage, our website and mobile apps are powered by the MLS, so you'll get access to the same information as real estate agents"

Per Zillow: "Listings are published on Zillow directly through MLS Internet Data Exchange (IDX) feeds"

Per Realtor.com: "While numerous websites aggregate home listings through highly condensed versions of MLS listings, realtor.com® is by far the most comprehensive, with 99% of all MLS-listed “for sale” properties in the U.S."

But I guess the info on these sites isn't accurate, Redfin, realtor.com, and Zillow publish fake data. We should all take James' word as truth and believe that data published by companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars is false. 

 So according to Greg he has MORE information on the Real Estate markets than licensed real estate agents 

Well, if the real estate agent we're talking about is you, then yeah definitely. Apparently your RE license and CE courses that you've taken have failed to teach you how to set correct parameters for the reports that you run and how to evaluate data. 

Let's not forget. Just a few hours ago you told me that I'm full of s#it for saying that RE prices nationally have gone down 10% since the peak in the summer. According to you they're actively increasing lol. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Chris John:

I still think the comparison should be price per square foot.  

Not sure if this really gives any direct answers but below is the full data on price per sqft in my entire market. 
It's interesting to see where it touched on pre '08', than that deep dip. If we consider '06' as a baseline of "reasonable" pricing, it really states we have been in a reverse-bubble more than anything, and this was a bursting of a bubble, a reverse-bubble. 
because you take '06' and draw line to today, it's not such a crazy rise. 
And new con follows similar lines as existing. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Chris John:

I know I've pointed this out, but I still think the comparison should be price per square foot.  To me, with low interest rates and easy money, that's a great time to trade up into a larger house.  With higher interest rates, I'm thinking that more smaller houses are being sold.  So, are we seeing a price drop because houses are actually getting cheaper or are more smaller houses selling which makes it look like prices are coming down?  No idea. 

I'd like to see @Greg R. and @James Hamling come up with competing sets of data and argue about it though!  haha.

Great idea Chris. There could be something to the price per Sqft angle. Not sure how to get that data... any suggestions?

And there are no competing sets of data. There is me producing current monthly sales data from the MLS and public records (via realtor.com & redfin), and there's James who produces quarterly data from Q2 2022 and then tries to pretend that those are current market data sets 😂

Exactly how do you have MLS data? Are you licensed? I am a licensed. I am a R.E. Broker actually, what are you?

My data is actually from the MLS. It was noted right on the postings I made. Data via Infosparks which is the ACTUAL data feed of/from MLS. realtor.com is NOT the MLS, it's kind of directly in there name, same for Redfin, so a little Edu. for ya there.

I also posted from FRED, which is the Federal Reserve. That anyone can access. But to get the actual MLS data feed, sorry you gotta be licensed for that and have a license for access generally obtained via ones membership to localized NAR chapter, and NAR itself, like I have.

For someone who knows so little, and get's so much wrong, the aggressiveness is interesting, to say the least. Reminds me of my university days and the psyc class discussions on Malignant Narcissism. 

Ha! So MLS data is super confidential then? Only realtors have information that's contained in the MLS? Sorry, not the 1990s anymore bud. I'm not licensed now, but I actually was at a time. I have more access to data now than what I did as a licensed realtor w/ access to the MLS over 20 years ago 😂. I'm not talking about notes on a listing or trivial things like that either. I'm talking about volume, sales prices, number  of new listings, etc. 

Per Redfin: "Since Redfin is a brokerage, our website and mobile apps are powered by the MLS, so you'll get access to the same information as real estate agents"

Per Zillow: "Listings are published on Zillow directly through MLS Internet Data Exchange (IDX) feeds"

Per Realtor.com: "While numerous websites aggregate home listings through highly condensed versions of MLS listings, realtor.com® is by far the most comprehensive, with 99% of all MLS-listed “for sale” properties in the U.S."

But I guess the info on these sites isn't accurate, Redfin, realtor.com, and Zillow publish fake data. We should all take James' word as truth and believe that data published by companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars is false. 

 So according to Greg he has MORE information on the Real Estate markets than licensed real estate agents 

Well, if the real estate agent we're talking about is you, then yeah definitely. Apparently your RE license and CE courses that you've taken have failed to teach you how to set correct parameters for the reports that you run and how to evaluate data. 

Let's not forget. Just a few hours ago you told me that I'm full of s#it for saying that RE prices nationally have gone down 10% since the peak in the summer. According to you they're actively increasing lol. 

 NOPE, not according to me, according to the DATA and facts. 

Did you suffer some TBI as a child? This has only been shown about 74 times now. Maybe Alzheimer's? 

There is pages upon pages of the data from FRED, and the MLS. Aaaand here you are, using slander again, false information again, personal attacks again.

Your pathetic, truly. 

[Bob Floss II]

[Greg R.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Let's not forget. Just a few hours ago you told me that I'm full of s#it for saying that RE prices nationally have gone down 10% since the peak in the summer. According to you they're actively increasing lol. 

 NOPE, not according to me, according to the DATA and facts. 

Did you suffer some TBI as a child? This has only been shown about 74 times now. Maybe Alzheimer's? 

There is pages upon pages of the data from FRED, and the MLS. Aaaand here you are, using slander again, false information again, personal attacks again.

Your pathetic, truly. 

[Adam Christopher Zaleski]

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

Agreed. However, during this same 7 month span in 2021: June, July, August, September, October, November, and December the national median price increased all but one month. The one month when it didn't increase it stayed flat. Since May we've seen 7 straight months of price declines Nationally. Since May the median sold price in the US is down 10-11%. 

https://www.realtor.com/news/t...

YOY is basically flat nationally for Dec, which represents a significant drop due to the huge spike we saw mid-year. 

However, there are many markets are already down YOY:

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Let's not forget. Just a few hours ago you told me that I'm full of s#it for saying that RE prices nationally have gone down 10% since the peak in the summer. According to you they're actively increasing lol. 

 NOPE, not according to me, according to the DATA and facts. 

Did you suffer some TBI as a child? This has only been shown about 74 times now. Maybe Alzheimer's? 

There is pages upon pages of the data from FRED, and the MLS. Aaaand here you are, using slander again, false information again, personal attacks again.

Your pathetic, truly. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

 Playing with the data, it's a weird relationship of size, market and price per sqft. 

When things are on the uptick, smaller sqft get's more and more $. BUT on a down-slide market, that relationship flips. I would say that is a strong reinforcement of adjustments in home size purchase activity related to market cycle. Which is an argument that buyers don't so much remove themselves from buying in ___ market, as much as they ADJUST there purchasing activity. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

 How do you know the house is now worth 400k? Do you have an offer?

[Greg R.]

Looks like rent growth has slowed quite a bit as well...

Also, Minneapolis saw the biggest rent decline in the nation

[Greg R.]

A little more from the December data dump...

• - Pending home sales were down 31.7% year over year to the lowest level on record, the 12th straight period of pending sales declining more than 30%.
• - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most in Las Vegas (-61.9% YoY), Jacksonville, FL (-57.4%), Phoenix (-56.9%), Austin, TX (-55.3%) and Nashville (-50.8%).
• - Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 20.7% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.
• - Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 44 days, the longest time period since April 2020. That’s up nearly two weeks from 31 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.

[Aaron Gordy]

@Greg R.Is the rent drops for houses, duplexes, fourplexes or apartments? Redfin operates in the sfh space. Please clarify. I hope that you are shorting the market based upon your data sets.  

@Adam Christopher Zaleski That is why year over year is the best metric to use so that it accounts for seasonal differences. 

Sam Zell "When everyone is going left, look right."

[Russell Brazil]

In Q3 2022 home prices are up 10.6% nationally year over year. (Media $454,900 Q3 2022 vs $411,200 Q3 2021). Q4 data has not been released yet by the St Louis Fed. (Which tracks all properties, not just MLS data)

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Looks like rent growth has slowed quite a bit as well...

Also, Minneapolis saw the biggest rent decline in the nation

 Of course rent growth has slowed. But unlike home values it won’t go negative.

[Adam Christopher Zaleski]

Quote from @Greg R.:

A little more from the December data dump...

• - Pending home sales were down 31.7% year over year to the lowest level on record, the 12th straight period of pending sales declining more than 30%.
• - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most in Las Vegas (-61.9% YoY), Jacksonville, FL (-57.4%), Phoenix (-56.9%), Austin, TX (-55.3%) and Nashville (-50.8%).
• - Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 20.7% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.
• - Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 44 days, the longest time period since April 2020. That’s up nearly two weeks from 31 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.

"Home sales" is volume, not sales price. Yes, volume is down. No one is going to disagree with you on that one. If you are a real estate agent or a lender you are most likely slower in second half of 2022 than first half of 2022. 

This thread is supposed to be based on sales price, not volume.   
 

[Adam Christopher Zaleski]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

 How do you know the house is now worth 400k? Do you have an offer?

It's not worth 400K right now. It's worth 380K. My estimate is based on comps. The comps in May/June were higher than Oct/Nov. 

Most offers are contingent on financing. If someone offers 450K, it doesn't mean it's worth 450K. The appraisal based on comps would come back at 380K and the deal would not close. 

How do I estimate the rent on my 4 rentals? I do it based on comps. Over the past 15 years, I have never lowered the rent price after posting the ad. However, I have had a few people offer more than the asking price on the rent a few times.   

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

@Greg R.Is the rent drops for houses, duplexes, fourplexes or apartments? Redfin operates in the sfh space. Please clarify. I hope that you are shorting the market based upon your data sets.  

@Adam Christopher Zaleski That is why year over year is the best metric to use so that it accounts for seasonal differences. 

Sam Zell "When everyone is going left, look right."

Hey Aaron, per the article Redfin stated that they analyzed rent prices from Rent.com across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas. This analysis uses data from more than 20,000 apartment buildings across the country.

Rent.com lists a variety of residential listings, SFH, apartments, etc. Below is a from their website for the options if you want to list. Looks strictly residential, no commercial. Everything from SFH all the way up to complexes with hundreds of units. 

Here's the article if you'd like to check it out: https://www.redfin.com/news/re...

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Quote from @Greg R.:

A little more from the December data dump...

• - Pending home sales were down 31.7% year over year to the lowest level on record, the 12th straight period of pending sales declining more than 30%.
• - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most in Las Vegas (-61.9% YoY), Jacksonville, FL (-57.4%), Phoenix (-56.9%), Austin, TX (-55.3%) and Nashville (-50.8%).
• - Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 20.7% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.
• - Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 44 days, the longest time period since April 2020. That’s up nearly two weeks from 31 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.

"Home sales" is volume, not sales price. Yes, volume is down. No one is going to disagree with you on that one. If you are a real estate agent or a lender you are most likely slower in second half of 2022 than first half of 2022. 

This thread is supposed to be based on sales price, not volume.   

This thread is under the category "Real Estate News & Current Events". We've been discussing a multitude of topics about current RE trends and economics. Trust me, we haven't gotten to almost 3k posts by only talking about prices. 

However, I've been posting about pricing as well... Below is from a post earlier today - a matter fact it was a reply to you...

"However, during this same 7 month span in 2021: June, July, August, September, October, November, and December the national median price increased all but one month. The one month when it didn't increase it stayed flat. Since May we've seen 7 straight months of price declines Nationally. Since May the median sold price in the US is down 10-11%.

https://www.realtor.com/news/t...

YOY is basically flat nationally for Dec, which represents a significant drop due to the huge spike we saw mid-year.

However, there are many markets are already down YOY:

[Carlos Ptriawan]

CoreLogic automatic valuation software predicts home prices going to slow growth-flat this year.
Zillow predicting low single-digit home growth.
And HC software predicts a 4% drop between Q1 to Q4 2023.

If software itself doesn't have an agreement, no wonder this thread keeps continue haha

What is likely this year is possible default of Class A/B MF complexes.

[Adam Christopher Zaleski]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

Quote from @Greg R.:

A little more from the December data dump...

• - Pending home sales were down 31.7% year over year to the lowest level on record, the 12th straight period of pending sales declining more than 30%.
• - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most in Las Vegas (-61.9% YoY), Jacksonville, FL (-57.4%), Phoenix (-56.9%), Austin, TX (-55.3%) and Nashville (-50.8%).
• - Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 20.7% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.
• - Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 44 days, the longest time period since April 2020. That’s up nearly two weeks from 31 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.

"Home sales" is volume, not sales price. Yes, volume is down. No one is going to disagree with you on that one. If you are a real estate agent or a lender you are most likely slower in second half of 2022 than first half of 2022. 

This thread is supposed to be based on sales price, not volume.   

This thread is under the category "Real Estate News & Current Events". We've been discussing a multitude of topics about current RE trends and economics. Trust me, we haven't gotten to almost 3k posts by only talking about prices. 

However, I've been posting about pricing as well... Below is from a post earlier today - a matter fact it was a reply to you...

"However, during this same 7 month span in 2021: June, July, August, September, October, November, and December the national median price increased all but one month. The one month when it didn't increase it stayed flat. Since May we've seen 7 straight months of price declines Nationally. Since May the median sold price in the US is down 10-11%.

https://www.realtor.com/news/t...

YOY is basically flat nationally for Dec, which represents a significant drop due to the huge spike we saw mid-year.

However, there are many markets are already down YOY:

You stated above that YOY sales price is flat for December 2022 and then reposted the Redfin article. On the second line of the Redfin article, it states that YOY sales price is up 8.4% for December 2022. 

Could you clarify? 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Price declines from May are not really news because it's the time of the peak of interest rates.
When folks say national price decline that's where it causes a problem, if 80% of luxury homes in CA or TX have price crash while the median price house in the same state stays flat, that's not a crash, that's statistical deviation.

Also, the cash flow market is not affected by these ' recessions', Ohio activity is still strong.

The more folks saying "national" the more confusion you will be. 

The bigger problem is; this discussion is like keeps repeating in 2008 not to invest in stock market, although in 2008 it's the best time to buy from the bottom, as 10 year note is reaching 3.44% yesterday (6 months low), we don't have much time to buy property before a rebound in real estate market LOL

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Adam Christopher Zaleski:

You stated above that YOY sales price is flat for December 2022 and then reposted the Redfin article. On the second line of the Redfin article, it states that YOY sales price is up 8.4% for December 2022. 

Could you clarify? 

 I know where this is coming from, even an article from the same redfin has a data analysis mismatch, and they're not in sync.

I think what can be said from the reality is that the sold price after May 2022, has a wild price swing, there's a house in the neighborhood that receives 5% above listing, but there're houses that receive -30% price decline as well. 

House particularly 4BR SF that's on top of 20% of the local median price the one that receives a huge setback.

It's luxury market price declines.
What's funny is if the house is 2 BR condo with low price in an expensive local market, then that condo psf could be higher than luxury SF psf.