Real Estate News & Current Events
Market News & Data
General Info
Real Estate Strategies
Landlording & Rental Properties
Real Estate Professionals
Financial, Tax, & Legal
Real Estate Classifieds
Reviews & Feedback
Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
#3 Ask About A Real Estate Company Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,135
- Votes |
- 3,960
- Posts
#3 Ask About A Real Estate Company Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
@James Hamling is waffling all the time and changes his prediction like the weatherman. I get it, circumstances change so you need to adjust with the market, but it’s easy to change predictions after stuff already happens. He’s very inconsistent on his prediction, we did a yin and Yang analogy on someone buying 3 months ago vs someone waiting until end of 2023 to buy and he was saying how great it was to buy then at 7-8 percent interest. But yes, if he truly believes now 15 percent correction then that’s in line with my 20-30 percent. My whole point has always been there’s no rush to buy after the fed raised rates. At a minimum prices will not be going up so you are getting a freeroll waiting to see what happens for 99 percent of deals. 20-30 percent correction. My new word will be correction going forward to appease the rulebook Larry’s on technical definitions.
There is no ends to your lies, misrepresentations, distortions and out right FRAUD.
- James Hamling
#3 Ask About A Real Estate Company Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
- 5,135
- Votes |
- 3,960
- Posts
#3 Ask About A Real Estate Company Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
My statements and forecast has been as consistent as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.
Mr John C. on the other hands enjoys regular trolling, distortion and out right lies. John has wailed of a "crash" and even in a timeline that has come and gone, yet not crash, collapse or other variant of the sky falling.
You can not get blood from a rock, nor truth from john C.
For a definition of "crash" just google it. The meaning of words is NOT open for interpretation, one does not get to just randomly decide "crash" means one thing today and a different tomorrow because the "feel" is should mean ____.
By the very definition there is NO crash, has been NO crash, is NO crash today, tomorrow or "coming soon".
There is NO CRASH, full stop. I have said this for 2yrs+ now. Yes, over 2yrs, because these fruit-cakes keep coming on here saying the market is just about to crash from any little anything they feel month to month. First it was covid would kill everyone and crash it all. Than it was covid lockdowns. Than it was some massive "shadow" inventory of foreclosures. Than it was the stock market collapse from meme stocks. Than it was the lifting of covid moratoriums. Than than than...... It has been a running circus or ridiculousness in calling out "CRASH, CRASH, A CRASH IS COMING".
It's some cult like obsession with "crash", and interestingly enough consistently from those with little to no experience, holdings or actual knowledge center of any kind BUT oh-so-certain they are spot on reporting from there mothers basement.
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
My statements and forecast has been as consistent as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.
Mr John C. on the other hands enjoys regular trolling, distortion and out right lies. John has wailed of a "crash" and even in a timeline that has come and gone, yet not crash, collapse or other variant of the sky falling.
You can not get blood from a rock, nor truth from john C.
For a definition of "crash" just google it. The meaning of words is NOT open for interpretation, one does not get to just randomly decide "crash" means one thing today and a different tomorrow because the "feel" is should mean ____.
By the very definition there is NO crash, has been NO crash, is NO crash today, tomorrow or "coming soon".
There is NO CRASH, full stop. I have said this for 2yrs+ now. Yes, over 2yrs, because these fruit-cakes keep coming on here saying the market is just about to crash from any little anything they feel month to month. First it was covid would kill everyone and crash it all. Than it was covid lockdowns. Than it was some massive "shadow" inventory of foreclosures. Than it was the stock market collapse from meme stocks. Than it was the lifting of covid moratoriums. Than than than...... It has been a running circus or ridiculousness in calling out "CRASH, CRASH, A CRASH IS COMING".
It's some cult like obsession with "crash", and interestingly enough consistently from those with little to no experience, holdings or actual knowledge center of any kind BUT oh-so-certain they are spot on reporting from there mothers basement.
what’s funny from all these posts are the bearish dude usually protests because they see what happen to their market while every market is extremely different.
also what’s funny if someone cry why their house in Idaho doesn’t appreciate like in 2021 LOL , what happen in 2021 maybe happen only once in lifetime.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Mel D.:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt.
Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.
You are welcome to form your own opinions, but the only market crash we need to look at is 2008. The economy, geo-politics, property rights, regulations, taxation, investing, banking, the stock market, and currencies (to name a few), were completely different "back in the day". Credit scores weren't even a thing until 1990. These aren't the same times when grandpapi was paying $.05 per gallon of gas. Makes no sense to look at ancient days when trying to analyze a modern-day housing crisis.
And yes, in 2008 we know lending was lose, there were appraisal problems, etc. But there are also similarities. In addition to those similarities, there is a new set of problems associated with the upcoming crash.
With that, I believe that we're going to see housing market crashes on a fairly regular basis going forward. not every few years, but definitely not once every 75 years.
Definitely at the early stages. Prices have come down some (really depends on locality). However, we've seeing the bottom fall out of sales volume, which happens before price drops. Plus, I don't see rates easing any time soon. If anything I think we may see J Pow raise rates some more. He recently said that the US housing market is in a bubble. He also said that the housing market needed a "difficult correction" and "reset".
One of the software that I follow is saying we are on the mid. 2024 to 2026 is rebound time.
bond market says we are on the mid.
m2 says we are on the end, dollar is saying we are on the mid.
I personally think it is different for every market , for CA we already rebound, but all other market are either in the mid or in early phase.
I can’t wait to buy again:) when too many folks is waiting for bearish sentiment confirmation that’s the time I purchase at the bottom LOL
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
@James Hamling is waffling all the time and changes his prediction like the weatherman. I get it, circumstances change so you need to adjust with the market, but it’s easy to change predictions after stuff already happens. He’s very inconsistent on his prediction, we did a yin and Yang analogy on someone buying 3 months ago vs someone waiting until end of 2023 to buy and he was saying how great it was to buy then at 7-8 percent interest. But yes, if he truly believes now 15 percent correction then that’s in line with my 20-30 percent. My whole point has always been there’s no rush to buy after the fed raised rates. At a minimum prices will not be going up so you are getting a freeroll waiting to see what happens for 99 percent of deals. 20-30 percent correction. My new word will be correction going forward to appease the rulebook Larry’s on technical definitions.
There is no ends to your lies, misrepresentations, distortions and out right FRAUD.
Please explain, everything I’ve said is factual. My timeframe has always been end of 2023…
By true definition you are right James housing won’t crash, but it will decline by 20-30 percent by end of 2023 as I’ve said from day one. How are ying and Yang doing? I found my guy a killer deal on a rental to ride 2023 out
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Chris John:
You've definitely made some compelling arguments throughout this thread. However, I've gotta quibble a little with this statement:
"When you buy a home, do you own the home? No, in 99% of cases no, the BANK does, and your a tenant to the bank are you not?"
The real owner of all the houses is the government in the form of property taxes. Even if you don't have a mortgage on your home, you still don't actually own it and never will. Uncle Sam sees to that.
On land side, 100% Chris, your spot on, one NEVER actually "owns" that land as long as someone else has a position of control over such and rights to receivership regardless of the red-tape to do such. Although this is a point of semantics because there is no change of such, never has been never will be, it's a necessary mechanism of society.
When a person takes $ from a bank, to buy a home, that is the Bank "owning" that real estate. A person has a option to own that real estate once they perform on that note with the bank.
There is a education deficit in the U.S. where people like to lie to themselves and say they "own" that property, which they just paid 3.5 - 20% upon.
Think on it, what is renting out a property? We give a person use of the property in full, in exchange they must make regular payments and maintain that property to a set standard to retain that usership right. And this is given, at profit. Ok, now when one "buys" a home via banks $, on must do the exact same, and again, for profit to the bank. Yes, your a tenant to the bank.
You have to think big picture to comprehend how these elitist view the world and structure of things. When they say "you will own nothing, and be happy" most put it in there personal "box" of life and scratch there head picturing some entity coming in and taking all real estate, all assets, and making them lease everything. No, you have to jump into there shoes to comprehend.
Those who FUND the purchases, control via lending mechanism, THEY own "everything" do they not? And when a person get's that home for 3.5% down, are they not "happy"? And completely ignoring the fact they will be paying that bank 2X+?
Auto loans are now commonly going 7+yrs, that was once unthinkable, especially with people cycling autos on average ever 5yrs. That makes for perpetual debt, which is NOT owning anything, just purchasing usership rights. Expand home mortgages to 50yrs and you get the same, lifetime debt.
People are happily moving into perpetual debt service, and doing it with a smile because they "feel" they "own" those things because they "own" the use and responsibility of it.
I see this same mindset in my long-term tenants. Once in a home 10+yrs, they say "my home" and act in ways that they own it. I like this, heck I encourage it, because it makes me a bunch of $ and I love them accepting on the responsibility and care of my assets, that I allow them use of, at profit.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
@James Hamling is waffling all the time and changes his prediction like the weatherman. I get it, circumstances change so you need to adjust with the market, but it’s easy to change predictions after stuff already happens. He’s very inconsistent on his prediction, we did a yin and Yang analogy on someone buying 3 months ago vs someone waiting until end of 2023 to buy and he was saying how great it was to buy then at 7-8 percent interest. But yes, if he truly believes now 15 percent correction then that’s in line with my 20-30 percent. My whole point has always been there’s no rush to buy after the fed raised rates. At a minimum prices will not be going up so you are getting a freeroll waiting to see what happens for 99 percent of deals. 20-30 percent correction. My new word will be correction going forward to appease the rulebook Larry’s on technical definitions.
There is no ends to your lies, misrepresentations, distortions and out right FRAUD.
Please explain, everything I’ve said is factual. My timeframe has always been end of 2023…
By true definition you are right James housing won’t crash, but it will decline by 20-30 percent by end of 2023 as I’ve said from day one. How are ying and Yang doing? I found my guy a killer deal on a rental to ride 2023 out
The software says the same LOL
90 % chance we see price reduction til dec 2023 in many market lol
but Zillow guy says otherwise
this will be fun anyhow
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Mel D.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Chris John:
You've definitely made some compelling arguments throughout this thread. However, I've gotta quibble a little with this statement:
"When you buy a home, do you own the home? No, in 99% of cases no, the BANK does, and your a tenant to the bank are you not?"
The real owner of all the houses is the government in the form of property taxes. Even if you don't have a mortgage on your home, you still don't actually own it and never will. Uncle Sam sees to that.
On land side, 100% Chris, your spot on, one NEVER actually "owns" that land as long as someone else has a position of control over such and rights to receivership regardless of the red-tape to do such. Although this is a point of semantics because there is no change of such, never has been never will be, it's a necessary mechanism of society.
When a person takes $ from a bank, to buy a home, that is the Bank "owning" that real estate. A person has a option to own that real estate once they perform on that note with the bank.
There is a education deficit in the U.S. where people like to lie to themselves and say they "own" that property, which they just paid 3.5 - 20% upon.
Think on it, what is renting out a property? We give a person use of the property in full, in exchange they must make regular payments and maintain that property to a set standard to retain that usership right. And this is given, at profit. Ok, now when one "buys" a home via banks $, on must do the exact same, and again, for profit to the bank. Yes, your a tenant to the bank.
You have to think big picture to comprehend how these elitist view the world and structure of things. When they say "you will own nothing, and be happy" most put it in there personal "box" of life and scratch there head picturing some entity coming in and taking all real estate, all assets, and making them lease everything. No, you have to jump into there shoes to comprehend.
Those who FUND the purchases, control via lending mechanism, THEY own "everything" do they not? And when a person get's that home for 3.5% down, are they not "happy"? And completely ignoring the fact they will be paying that bank 2X+?
Auto loans are now commonly going 7+yrs, that was once unthinkable, especially with people cycling autos on average ever 5yrs. That makes for perpetual debt, which is NOT owning anything, just purchasing usership rights. Expand home mortgages to 50yrs and you get the same, lifetime debt.
People are happily moving into perpetual debt service, and doing it with a smile because they "feel" they "own" those things because they "own" the use and responsibility of it.
I see this same mindset in my long-term tenants. Once in a home 10+yrs, they say "my home" and act in ways that they own it. I like this, heck I encourage it, because it makes me a bunch of $ and I love them accepting on the responsibility and care of my assets, that I allow them use of, at profit.
My question is why do you care so much about James opinion ? LOL
even Fed chairman is having different idea of what’s going on LOL
I see this one as the best opportunity to acquire property and I don’t need people opinion to validate my approach
I have been anti BP advise for long time anyhow LOL
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
are we actually all that far apart in terms of predictions for what is going to happen? to be clear, @James Hamling thinks prices are going to come down - here's what he said:
"there could be a national average consolidation of as-much-as 15% step back in median home prices. This is a consolidating event NOT collapse, crash or "correction". And there WILL be localized market specific deviations of this. For example CA, in the negative or FL in the positive. Again, specific to and coming from specific factors unique to those specific markets..."
so - do you think prices will come down even further than that?
are we still disagreeing about what "crash" means 10,000 posts into this thread? =)
@James Hamling is waffling all the time and changes his prediction like the weatherman. I get it, circumstances change so you need to adjust with the market, but it’s easy to change predictions after stuff already happens. He’s very inconsistent on his prediction, we did a yin and Yang analogy on someone buying 3 months ago vs someone waiting until end of 2023 to buy and he was saying how great it was to buy then at 7-8 percent interest. But yes, if he truly believes now 15 percent correction then that’s in line with my 20-30 percent. My whole point has always been there’s no rush to buy after the fed raised rates. At a minimum prices will not be going up so you are getting a freeroll waiting to see what happens for 99 percent of deals. 20-30 percent correction. My new word will be correction going forward to appease the rulebook Larry’s on technical definitions.
There is no ends to your lies, misrepresentations, distortions and out right FRAUD.
Please explain, everything I’ve said is factual. My timeframe has always been end of 2023
Still waiting for him to respond to my rebuttal about human rights abuses in China. According to James it’s racist to call out truths about labor conditions in China. He thinks he’s taking the moral high ground by pretending their atrocities don't exist and turning a blind eye.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Mel D.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Chris John:
You've definitely made some compelling arguments throughout this thread. However, I've gotta quibble a little with this statement:
"When you buy a home, do you own the home? No, in 99% of cases no, the BANK does, and your a tenant to the bank are you not?"
The real owner of all the houses is the government in the form of property taxes. Even if you don't have a mortgage on your home, you still don't actually own it and never will. Uncle Sam sees to that.
On land side, 100% Chris, your spot on, one NEVER actually "owns" that land as long as someone else has a position of control over such and rights to receivership regardless of the red-tape to do such. Although this is a point of semantics because there is no change of such, never has been never will be, it's a necessary mechanism of society.
When a person takes $ from a bank, to buy a home, that is the Bank "owning" that real estate. A person has a option to own that real estate once they perform on that note with the bank.
There is a education deficit in the U.S. where people like to lie to themselves and say they "own" that property, which they just paid 3.5 - 20% upon.
Think on it, what is renting out a property? We give a person use of the property in full, in exchange they must make regular payments and maintain that property to a set standard to retain that usership right. And this is given, at profit. Ok, now when one "buys" a home via banks $, on must do the exact same, and again, for profit to the bank. Yes, your a tenant to the bank.
You have to think big picture to comprehend how these elitist view the world and structure of things. When they say "you will own nothing, and be happy" most put it in there personal "box" of life and scratch there head picturing some entity coming in and taking all real estate, all assets, and making them lease everything. No, you have to jump into there shoes to comprehend.
Those who FUND the purchases, control via lending mechanism, THEY own "everything" do they not? And when a person get's that home for 3.5% down, are they not "happy"? And completely ignoring the fact they will be paying that bank 2X+?
Auto loans are now commonly going 7+yrs, that was once unthinkable, especially with people cycling autos on average ever 5yrs. That makes for perpetual debt, which is NOT owning anything, just purchasing usership rights. Expand home mortgages to 50yrs and you get the same, lifetime debt.
People are happily moving into perpetual debt service, and doing it with a smile because they "feel" they "own" those things because they "own" the use and responsibility of it.
I see this same mindset in my long-term tenants. Once in a home 10+yrs, they say "my home" and act in ways that they own it. I like this, heck I encourage it, because it makes me a bunch of $ and I love them accepting on the responsibility and care of my assets, that I allow them use of, at profit.
My question is why do you care so much about James opinion ? LOL
even Fed chairman is having different idea of what’s going on LOL
I see this one as the best opportunity to acquire property and I don’t need people opinion to validate my approach
I have been anti BP advise for long time anyhow LOL
I just simply fire back at people like James. I agree with a lot of what he says long term, but his ego is the biggest I’ve ever seen on BP so I’ll call him out on his BS.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Mel D.:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Chris John:
You've definitely made some compelling arguments throughout this thread. However, I've gotta quibble a little with this statement:
"When you buy a home, do you own the home? No, in 99% of cases no, the BANK does, and your a tenant to the bank are you not?"
The real owner of all the houses is the government in the form of property taxes. Even if you don't have a mortgage on your home, you still don't actually own it and never will. Uncle Sam sees to that.
On land side, 100% Chris, your spot on, one NEVER actually "owns" that land as long as someone else has a position of control over such and rights to receivership regardless of the red-tape to do such. Although this is a point of semantics because there is no change of such, never has been never will be, it's a necessary mechanism of society.
When a person takes $ from a bank, to buy a home, that is the Bank "owning" that real estate. A person has a option to own that real estate once they perform on that note with the bank.
There is a education deficit in the U.S. where people like to lie to themselves and say they "own" that property, which they just paid 3.5 - 20% upon.
Think on it, what is renting out a property? We give a person use of the property in full, in exchange they must make regular payments and maintain that property to a set standard to retain that usership right. And this is given, at profit. Ok, now when one "buys" a home via banks $, on must do the exact same, and again, for profit to the bank. Yes, your a tenant to the bank.
You have to think big picture to comprehend how these elitist view the world and structure of things. When they say "you will own nothing, and be happy" most put it in there personal "box" of life and scratch there head picturing some entity coming in and taking all real estate, all assets, and making them lease everything. No, you have to jump into there shoes to comprehend.
Those who FUND the purchases, control via lending mechanism, THEY own "everything" do they not? And when a person get's that home for 3.5% down, are they not "happy"? And completely ignoring the fact they will be paying that bank 2X+?
Auto loans are now commonly going 7+yrs, that was once unthinkable, especially with people cycling autos on average ever 5yrs. That makes for perpetual debt, which is NOT owning anything, just purchasing usership rights. Expand home mortgages to 50yrs and you get the same, lifetime debt.
People are happily moving into perpetual debt service, and doing it with a smile because they "feel" they "own" those things because they "own" the use and responsibility of it.
I see this same mindset in my long-term tenants. Once in a home 10+yrs, they say "my home" and act in ways that they own it. I like this, heck I encourage it, because it makes me a bunch of $ and I love them accepting on the responsibility and care of my assets, that I allow them use of, at profit.
My question is why do you care so much about James opinion ? LOL
even Fed chairman is having different idea of what’s going on LOL
I see this one as the best opportunity to acquire property and I don’t need people opinion to validate my approach
I have been anti BP advise for long time anyhow LOL
I just simply fire back at people like James. I agree with a lot of what he says long term, but his ego is the biggest I’ve ever seen on BP so I’ll call him out on his BS.
Well well well
philosopically speaking , the entire real estate in America IS Bullsht industry anyway
Just think about it , In 10 years I acquire one million dollar without adding any more of labour productivity , suddenly it appreciate so much because the Fed has money to be printed ..now when that printer is turned off , people in BP is screaming lol
I guess we are all lucky in that aspect as we understand this BS game of america real estate industry , we gained because we understand how to play it well, with the tenant paying the cost.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Mel D.:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Russell Brazil:
The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt.
Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.
You are welcome to form your own opinions, but the only market crash we need to look at is 2008. The economy, geo-politics, property rights, regulations, taxation, investing, banking, the stock market, and currencies (to name a few), were completely different "back in the day". Credit scores weren't even a thing until 1990. These aren't the same times when grandpapi was paying $.05 per gallon of gas. Makes no sense to look at ancient days when trying to analyze a modern-day housing crisis.
And yes, in 2008 we know lending was lose, there were appraisal problems, etc. But there are also similarities. In addition to those similarities, there is a new set of problems associated with the upcoming crash.
With that, I believe that we're going to see housing market crashes on a fairly regular basis going forward. not every few years, but definitely not once every 75 years.
We have discussed this earlier in this thread , including Michael in the topic. The epicenter of the home crash only happened in three to four west coast submarket "outside CA" where home appreciation between 2020-2022 is simply "irrational", that market is primarily Austin, Las Vegas, and Arizona, and possibly Idaho. That market receives the "California" excess money during 2020-2022 ; and when CA buyers stopped coming that market started reverting to the mean. What's funny is many of the market react very differently in 2020-2022, unlike 2008 where market reacted in tandem.
This is why, in James's market like MN, they dont feel much negative impact of the 2020-2022 massive apprecation.
That's why also, market like FL or even new mexico, is just stagnant. I also pointed out this thing to Forbes author that keep saying real estate is crash crash crash, there's crash obviously, but only in few markets. Now some folks want to argue that their market should react differently hahaha LOL that wouldn't happen in hundred years.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
On land side, 100% Chris, your spot on, one NEVER actually "owns" that land as long as someone else has a position of control over such and rights to receivership regardless of the red-tape to do such. Although this is a point of semantics because there is no change of such, never has been never will be, it's a necessary mechanism of society.
When a person takes $ from a bank, to buy a home, that is the Bank "owning" that real estate. A person has a option to own that real estate once they perform on that note with the bank.
There is a education deficit in the U.S. where people like to lie to themselves and say they "own" that property, which they just paid 3.5 - 20% upon.
>>>
This is very funny, why in the world one want to "owns" that land".
For me buying real estate is simply the easiest form "to make money for almost zero effort".
If you purchase any home from X time frame to X+3 years time frame, you make this $X amount of money.
That amount of money is real. You keep buy and sell and buy and sell overdecade, sometimes with huge leverage
when the time is right, after few decades, your job stays the same, your salary may increase a bit, but your
bank account increases a lot without doing anything more from your productivity aspect LOL
I could just simply buying home in Denver,CO or San Diego,CA in 2023; locked the door for 5 years ;
live in Mali for 5 years (who wants to live in Mali LOL), and then come back and sell it again 2027.
There's no business as easy as owning real estate in US. The Fed is like working for us.
Who really care about owning a land.
" Well well well
philosopically speaking , the entire real estate in America IS Bullsht industry anyway
Just
think about it , In 10 years I acquire one million dollar without
adding any more of labour productivity , suddenly it appreciate so much
because the Fed has money to be printed ..now when that printer is
turned off , people in BP is screaming lol
I guess we are
all lucky in that aspect as we understand this BS game of america real
estate industry , we gained because we understand how to play it well,
with the tenant paying the cost."
I've been trying to explain this to my coworkers, but have had very limited success. A couple of thoughts that I'm uncomfortable with, but have been trying to become more okay with:
1. I am sad that my grandparents got ahead by working hard and saving, but I got ahead by borrowing. It feels wrong, but...
2. I used to feel bad for those renters that you're referring to, but they keep voting for it over and over and over again. I explained to my students how giving money to everyone hurts those at the bottom the most. We all get money, prices for everything inflate, then the money runs out, but the prices never come back down. Renters keep paying higher rents and owners siphon that excess money into their pockets. Won't stop the next handout though...
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Chris John:
" Well well well
philosopically speaking , the entire real estate in America IS Bullsht industry anyway
Just
think about it , In 10 years I acquire one million dollar without
adding any more of labour productivity , suddenly it appreciate so much
because the Fed has money to be printed ..now when that printer is
turned off , people in BP is screaming lol
I guess we are
all lucky in that aspect as we understand this BS game of america real
estate industry , we gained because we understand how to play it well,
with the tenant paying the cost."
I've been trying to explain this to my coworkers, but have had very limited success. A couple of thoughts that I'm uncomfortable with, but have been trying to become more okay with:
1. I am sad that my grandparents got ahead by working hard and saving, but I got ahead by borrowing. It feels wrong, but...
2. I used to feel bad for those renters that you're referring to, but they keep voting for it over and over and over again. I explained to my students how giving money to everyone hurts those at the bottom the most. We all get money, prices for everything inflate, then the money runs out, but the prices never come back down. Renters keep paying higher rents and owners siphon that excess money into their pockets. Won't stop the next handout though...
anywhere in the world is the same, the land owner is going to enjoy the land appreciation while productivity/wage remains down ; which basically means only land owner could survive in the long run, the 9-5 renter would just living paycheck-to-paycheck. @James Hamling is quite right US is going to be renter nation , it's like in the old feudal world. The renter is working for the landlord class lol.
While your student is being "possesed" by the Wall-Street banks that sell consumerism dream ; you could have a loan to buy Tesla, truck , SUV, 24 hour vacation in Hawaii , Gucci and all instagrammable fashion design clothes ; while the landlord and banker (like us) is lending our own money, house, STR,etc to them LOL
Investing is the only way to survive rather than being taken out for consumerism. lol
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Chris John:
" Well well well
philosopically speaking , the entire real estate in America IS Bullsht industry anyway
Just
think about it , In 10 years I acquire one million dollar without
adding any more of labour productivity , suddenly it appreciate so much
because the Fed has money to be printed ..now when that printer is
turned off , people in BP is screaming lol
I guess we are
all lucky in that aspect as we understand this BS game of america real
estate industry , we gained because we understand how to play it well,
with the tenant paying the cost."
I've been trying to explain this to my coworkers, but have had very limited success. A couple of thoughts that I'm uncomfortable with, but have been trying to become more okay with:
1. I am sad that my grandparents got ahead by working hard and saving, but I got ahead by borrowing. It feels wrong, but...
2. I used to feel bad for those renters that you're referring to, but they keep voting for it over and over and over again. I explained to my students how giving money to everyone hurts those at the bottom the most. We all get money, prices for everything inflate, then the money runs out, but the prices never come back down. Renters keep paying higher rents and owners siphon that excess money into their pockets. Won't stop the next handout though...
anywhere in the world is the same, the land owner is going to enjoy the land appreciation while productivity/wage remains down ; which basically means only land owner could survive in the long run, the 9-5 renter would just living paycheck-to-paycheck. @James Hamling is quite right US is going to be renter nation , it's like in the old feudal world. The renter is working for the landlord class lol.
While your student is being "possesed" by the Wall-Street banks that sell consumerism dream ; you could have a loan to buy Tesla, truck , SUV, 24 hour vacation in Hawaii , Gucci and all instagrammable fashion design clothes ; while the landlord and banker (like us) is lending our own money, house, STR,etc to them LOL
Investing is the only way to survive rather than being taken out for consumerism. lol
James is right on that.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
just as a reminder, here's what you said in your 5th post to this thread:
"I would say take the 10 years prior to the bubble and get the average rate of appreciation. Use the same rate of appreciation for 2021 & 2022, once you get to where values are at that point, that's the market correction. Crash is beyond that."
i haven't done the math to see what that would be. and i think you'd agree that it's not the case that every single market corrects to that... right?
Greg this is for you.
Redfin agrees market bottom is at Q2 or Q3 2023 before a rebound:
https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...
@Alex Hochberger Well said … but would it be more accurate to say real estate track growth in money supply than wage growth? My sense is that that is what we’ve witnessed over the COVID era (and even in the post 2008 recovery).
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
I see listing price of $1.5m house sold for $1.7m, while 5 miles from there 1950 SF listing for $850k, end up sold for $680k. This market is in total chaos, few homes are still in home run while others depleted in value, especially Single Family.
What's the common theme in this market today is "Condo" has much more price stability than Single Family Residential.
But Redfin and Zillow's SF started showing uptick in sold price , indicator market has reached bottom for some zip code.
Seems best to make decisions now that are based on sound economic principles, prudent leverage (if used), and having substantial cash reserves. Making decisions that make sense today versus what can be expected in the future is a great place to start. Speculating over crash or no crash leads to decisions made on anticipation vs. present realities.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
just as a reminder, here's what you said in your 5th post to this thread:
"I would say take the 10 years prior to the bubble and get the average rate of appreciation. Use the same rate of appreciation for 2021 & 2022, once you get to where values are at that point, that's the market correction. Crash is beyond that."
i haven't done the math to see what that would be. and i think you'd agree that it's not the case that every single market corrects to that... right?
Greg this is for you.
Redfin agrees market bottom is at Q2 or Q3 2023 before a rebound:
https://www.redfin.com/news/ho...
Quote from @Greg R.:
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
2751 replies, holy lol
This is quite the conversation that I am late to. I am going to enjoy reading through all of this.
Quote from @Ace Kaspar:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
2751 replies, holy lol
This is quite the conversation that I am late to. I am going to enjoy reading through all of this.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Ace Kaspar:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
2751 replies, holy lol
This is quite the conversation that I am late to. I am going to enjoy reading through all of this.