Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

[Khoa Ha]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg Scott:

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

Ok, so I don't deny the amount of regs re: lending, but let's be honest. Good lenders are able to manipulate DTI and bend the numbers to get people into loans that they can barley afford. Let's not pretend that all the people who purchased in this over-inflated market are super stable and can't foreclose. I personally know people who are living check to check and who bit off more than they could chew thinking that they had to buy during the recent housing craze. 

So I respectfully disagree... there is a house of cards that will come tumbling down.

There will be a crash but no one can tell when. Just like all the people that calling for a crash back 5+ years ago and yet here we are with a few minor corrections here and there. You can say that people cannot afford to buy a property but have you ever look at it at a different angle where they might not be able to afford not to buy? Rental rate are still sky high and sometime the only different between buying and renting is the down payment. In some cases rental rates are the same is monthly mortgage. For people that are still in the sideline hoping for a crash (I do want a crash (20% drop) too but not sure if there will be one in that magnitude. So far my area see a 5-7% correction but with interest rate went up by 100% you are still paying more today than if you had purchased it a few months back. For investor just make sure you have a good cash flow and don’t worry too about getting in at the bottom because the bottom might be more costly than you think. 

[Khoa Ha]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

Too much equity in the homes and people will not let go of the sub 3% interest rate if they can rent out the house for more than the monthly mortgage payment. Seller can just pull their property off the market if they can’t sell it at the price of a few months ago. The big different this time and 2008 is that current owner have many option other then allowing the lender to foreclose on their property. I purchased 2 investment properties 1 in May and 1 in June and I still think they were good deals comparing to today since I was able to locked them at lower interest rates. Even if I purchase a similar property today for 10% lower in price I know my monthly mortgage payment might still be higher. 

[Joseph P Davis]

Personally Bought House a couple years ago to rehab and sold but renting now myself in Phoenix AZ

House values are too high waiting to bottom till buy again maybe a year or two who knows lets see if recession gets worse

[Dustin Verley]

Opened this topic thinking there was only a few pages of dialogue (silly me.)

Instead of reading all 100 pages of content, my guess is a correction is coming. I don't foresee a "crash" myself, but the market prices will end up needing to correct with the state of the economy now, and where it's going.

Which stings when I see realtors up and down my FB timeline, mortgage brokers too, swearing the market is cooling and that "now is a good time to purchase." Everyone's entitled to their objectional views, but I cringe when I see this kind of advice getting tossed around sooo loosely.

We shall see....

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Khoa Ha:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

Too much equity in the homes and people will not let go of the sub 3% interest rate if they can rent out the house for more than the monthly mortgage payment. Seller can just pull their property off the market if they can’t sell it at the price of a few months ago. The big different this

One strategy that's doable to be executed now if one has to sell their rental sub 3 mortgage is...by 1031 to DST , I noticed there're still a bunch of DST from 40-60% LTV offering 4 percent 10 year IO for cash-flow.  

Assuming they sell in 2027-2030 timeframe,by that time those DST is sold, interest rate would be lower to do another 1031.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Joseph P Davis:

Personally Bought House a couple years ago to rehab and sold but renting now myself in Phoenix AZ

House values are too high waiting to bottom till buy again maybe a year or two who knows lets see if recession gets worse

 There're three things fighting in the market that is very convoluted :
1. 10 year yield and 6 months yield
2. mortgage/cap rate
3. CPI 

Time to invest : when spread between (1) and (2) is as wide as possible.
Now historically speaking, cap rate going up only ever happened in 2008. But 2022 ain't 2008 so far data-wise.

Now since #3 is greater than #1, we have to wait for #3 to crash to be below #1. When #1 and #3 cross, that may be good time to invest.

In other word, best time to invest is when oil price move back to $50 and/or Ukraine war is over LOL.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

Then the liquidity theory has proven to be correct.
Also, liquidity is an abstraction of the M2 money supply.

If Feb-Mar-Apr timeframe we don't have a price reduction like in winder we could say Fed is unable to control/manipulate the market LOL.

Greg would be happy in March as the whole Fed team is supporting him indirectly.

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

15 percent???? Are you on drugs? I’ve been calling for 20 percent several months ago and you said that was as likely as aliens invading. But a 15 percent is in line with your projections by end of March? My 20 percent was by end of 2023, so I never predicted a “crash”

do you even know what you write on here James? 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Dustin Verley:

Which stings when I see realtors up and down my FB timeline, mortgage brokers too, swearing the market is cooling and that "now is a good time to purchase." 

Well I think that is true - generally speaking - although I believe the 'bottom' is really several months away at least.....

[Carlos Ptriawan]

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

[Khoa Ha]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Khoa Ha:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

Too much equity in the homes and people will not let go of the sub 3% interest rate if they can rent out the house for more than the monthly mortgage payment. Seller can just pull their property off the market if they can’t sell it at the price of a few months ago. The big different this

One strategy that's doable to be executed now if one has to sell their rental sub 3 mortgage is...by 1031 to DST , I noticed there're still a bunch of DST from 40-60% LTV offering 4 percent 10 year IO for cash-flow.  

Assuming they sell in 2027-2030 timeframe,by that time those DST is sold, interest rate would be lower to do another 1031.

[Khoa Ha]

Quote from @Khoa Ha:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Khoa Ha:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I guess the most real-time important real estate metrics that we have right now is that the housing inventory in Nov 2022 is adjusted to Q2 2000 active inventory level. However nationwide price is barely moving from an all-time high and CA  state (as the leading 'crasher') is only regressed to Q1 2022/Q4 2021 price level.

That was very surprising actually. There's no 1-to-1 correlation between price adjustment and inventory level. 

 I did expect we would be around a 2-5% consolidation in national median pricing by now. I am a bit surprised how resilient the vast majority of country is holding, despite volume drop. The entrenchment seems to be a bit more then I had projected. 

How crazy would it be if we get into Feb, with a 50% drop in volume YOY, but remain flat on national median price, or near flat. That would be very interesting. I projected up to 15% consolidation on national median by end of Q1 '23'. 

Too much equity in the homes and people will not let go of the sub 3% interest rate if they can rent out the house for more than the monthly mortgage payment. Seller can just pull their property off the market if they can’t sell it at the price of a few months ago. The big different this

One strategy that's doable to be executed now if one has to sell their rental sub 3 mortgage is...by 1031 to DST , I noticed there're still a bunch of DST from 40-60% LTV offering 4 percent 10 year IO for cash-flow.  

Assuming they sell in 2027-2030 timeframe,by that time those DST is sold, interest rate would be lower to do another 1031.

That might be an option. But trading in a decent cash flow property in order to hope to pick up a better cash flow property isn’t something I am willing to risk. If I can still purchase good cash flow property now I will still do it. As a matter of fact I am still actively looking right now. 

[Khoa Ha]

Quote from @Dustin Verley:

Opened this topic thinking there was only a few pages of dialogue (silly me.)

Instead of reading all 100 pages of content, my guess is a correction is coming. I don't foresee a "crash" myself, but the market prices will end up needing to correct with the state of the economy now, and where it's going.

Which stings when I see realtors up and down my FB timeline, mortgage brokers too, swearing the market is cooling and that "now is a good time to purchase." Everyone's entitled to their objectional views, but I cringe when I see this kind of advice getting tossed around sooo loosely.

We shall see....

“Good time to buy” is relative. I always believe that if it is your primary resident and you can afford the monthly mortgage then you should buy regardless of the which way you think the market will head toward. If you compare the market of 6 months ago to the market of today you will see that the monthly mortgage payment for a $1,000,000 home with 20% down and 3% rate is still lower than the monthly mortgage of an $800,000 home at 6% rate right now ($3,373 vs $3,837). So essentially the buyer lost 20% of their purchasing power because they believe the raise in interest rate will trigger a crash. I swear that last year people were predicting a crash as well as the year before that and so on. So far we can go way back to 2012 and find people that were claiming property were too expensive. What if you see a drop of 10% in home price in a few months but lose 20% of buying power due to interest rate increase. Is it really worth it? It haven’t for people that have been waiting on the sideline for many years. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)
Now the largest mortgage lender in the country would like to become the biggest landlord too.

I bet after 2023, many of the large asset funds is having an extremely difficult time deciding which asset class to invest in.
In 2022, after crypto was totally wiped out, hedge funds and tech stocks are 25% wiped out, the country's bond went to the lowest point since 1786, and only real-estate backed investment is making a positive return in all of 2022. While Europe going through the dark ages and Oil price is normalized now.....

I guess they have no choice other than to invest in real estate (hard asset class).

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

When US experiencing inflation in 70 and also in Asia during the hyperinflation of the late 90s, real estate skyrocketed. Was it due to pent-up demand, how to measure it?

 To understand the '90's one has to study the '80's. 

The bull-run of the '90's was absolutely, 100% "primed" by the previous decade of assorted recession. I once heard an economist give a talk where he said a measure he uses is new cars, not the sales volume or the sale prices but the styling. He pointed out the "economy" cars of the 80's and how it is a "read" of the economy as a whole, the more restricted the styling and features, it was a direct reflection of the greater "restriction" in the economy and thus an indicator of loading pent-up-demand.    And then in other years, he used a portion of the '90's, the more lavish features, the return of hot-rods and assorted vehicles for leisure at mass market level, as an indicator of the more "free-spending" economy and thus the "demand-itch" being readily scratched.  

The new home sales price made a new record in October of $480k-ish, an 8% increase MoM.
Another pent-up demand or what ?? 

I guess people are quickly realizing 6%  rate is the new normal.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

When US experiencing inflation in 70 and also in Asia during the hyperinflation of the late 90s, real estate skyrocketed. Was it due to pent-up demand, how to measure it?

 To understand the '90's one has to study the '80's. 

The bull-run of the '90's was absolutely, 100% "primed" by the previous decade of assorted recession. I once heard an economist give a talk where he said a measure he uses is new cars, not the sales volume or the sale prices but the styling. He pointed out the "economy" cars of the 80's and how it is a "read" of the economy as a whole, the more restricted the styling and features, it was a direct reflection of the greater "restriction" in the economy and thus an indicator of loading pent-up-demand.    And then in other years, he used a portion of the '90's, the more lavish features, the return of hot-rods and assorted vehicles for leisure at mass market level, as an indicator of the more "free-spending" economy and thus the "demand-itch" being readily scratched.  

The new home sales price made a new record in October of $480k-ish, an 8% increase MoM.
Another pent-up demand or what ?? 

I guess people are quickly realizing 6%  rate is the new normal.

 just realized one hour ago, new home sales made a U return with the strongest growth in the northeast and south.
https://www.marketwatch.com/st...

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

When US experiencing inflation in 70 and also in Asia during the hyperinflation of the late 90s, real estate skyrocketed. Was it due to pent-up demand, how to measure it?

 To understand the '90's one has to study the '80's. 

The bull-run of the '90's was absolutely, 100% "primed" by the previous decade of assorted recession. I once heard an economist give a talk where he said a measure he uses is new cars, not the sales volume or the sale prices but the styling. He pointed out the "economy" cars of the 80's and how it is a "read" of the economy as a whole, the more restricted the styling and features, it was a direct reflection of the greater "restriction" in the economy and thus an indicator of loading pent-up-demand.    And then in other years, he used a portion of the '90's, the more lavish features, the return of hot-rods and assorted vehicles for leisure at mass market level, as an indicator of the more "free-spending" economy and thus the "demand-itch" being readily scratched.  

The new home sales price made a new record in October of $480k-ish, an 8% increase MoM.
Another pent-up demand or what ?? 

I guess people are quickly realizing 6%  rate is the new normal.

 Well, actually 6.25% IS "normal". Sub 5% is NOT normal, sub 4% is crazy, and 3% and under is just BONKERS insane.    For some reason the "information-age" does a horrible job at actually informing people. 

Look, in the "Media-4-Profit" world, it's shock-media too shock-media too shock-media. People on a whole react, like good lil-sheeple, but they've grown a rapid response rate from the conditioning. People are already getting well burnt-out on the "sky is falling" messaging and are already moving on. Each month that goes by we will see more and more acceptance of the new leveling. AND when rates drop too say, that 6.25% level or near, lol, your going to hear talk of how "great" rates are now and how significantly they come down..... 

Just look at fuel prices. Gas hit's say $5gal, people freak out, panic, shake there fists and yell. Then, things step back to $4 and people talk about how good it is, gas came way down, yet it was $3 before the run up. Hello new accepted pricing level. 

If you sell something for $10, and want people to happily pay $15, all you have to do is re-price it to $20, let people feel the pain, then move it to $15 and demand everyone thank you for it. And guess what, they will, with a smile on there face to boot. 

Come mid-summer '23', the response to people ranting about inflation will probably be something similar to "ok-boomer".... Hell, they may even call that person a "conspiracy theorist". 

Ah, aren't things fun when the tail wags the dog....

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)

NDA's. Remember back to previous posts, more then enough light shed there. 
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Mahdi Hemmat:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Greg R.:

When US experiencing inflation in 70 and also in Asia during the hyperinflation of the late 90s, real estate skyrocketed. Was it due to pent-up demand, how to measure it?

 To understand the '90's one has to study the '80's. 

The bull-run of the '90's was absolutely, 100% "primed" by the previous decade of assorted recession. I once heard an economist give a talk where he said a measure he uses is new cars, not the sales volume or the sale prices but the styling. He pointed out the "economy" cars of the 80's and how it is a "read" of the economy as a whole, the more restricted the styling and features, it was a direct reflection of the greater "restriction" in the economy and thus an indicator of loading pent-up-demand.    And then in other years, he used a portion of the '90's, the more lavish features, the return of hot-rods and assorted vehicles for leisure at mass market level, as an indicator of the more "free-spending" economy and thus the "demand-itch" being readily scratched.  

The new home sales price made a new record in October of $480k-ish, an 8% increase MoM.
Another pent-up demand or what ?? 

I guess people are quickly realizing 6%  rate is the new normal.

 Well, actually 6.25% IS "normal". Sub 5% is NOT normal, sub 4% is crazy, and 3% and under is just BONKERS insane.    For some reason the "information-age" does a horrible job at actually informing people. 

Look, in the "Media-4-Profit" world, it's shock-media too shock-media too shock-media. People on a whole react, like good lil-sheeple, but they've grown a rapid response rate from the conditioning. People are already getting well burnt-out on the "sky is falling" messaging and are already moving on. Each month that goes by we will see more and more acceptance of the new leveling. AND when rates drop too say, that 6.25% level or near, lol, your going to hear talk of how "great" rates are now and how significantly they come down..... 

Just look at fuel prices. Gas hit's say $5gal, people freak out, panic, shake there fists and yell. Then, things step back to $4 and people talk about how good it is, gas came way down, yet it was $3 before the run up. Hello new accepted pricing level. 

If you sell something for $10, and want people to happily pay $15, all you have to do is re-price it to $20, let people feel the pain, then move it to $15 and demand everyone thank you for it. And guess what, they will, with a smile on there face to boot. 

Come mid-summer '23', the response to people ranting about inflation will probably be something similar to "ok-boomer".... Hell, they may even call that person a "conspiracy theorist". 

Ah, aren't things fun when the tail wags the dog....

 Yes, and as all these CPI is measured YoY basis, by the time we reach mid-2023 we thought the inflation was over.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)

NDA's. Remember back to previous posts, more then enough light shed there. 
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend. 

 Someone going to write a book in 2024 : "33 Reasons Why the Fed unable to crash the market" LOL

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)

NDA's. Remember back to previous posts, more then enough light shed there. 
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend. 

 Someone going to write a book in 2024 : "33 Reasons Why the Fed unable to crash the market" LOL

 Title may be a bit more correctly stated as "The Fed vs The Market, a pursuit or arrogant ignorance".

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)

NDA's. Remember back to previous posts, more then enough light shed there. 
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend. 

 That’s right, JP Morgan using Minneapolis based realtor to close their billion dollar purchases. 

I thought fed was communist for forcing rates so high so fast? Now you speak of it how great it is by tricking the public perception. Which one is it?

also, still predicting 15 percent drop by March? Or are you reverting back to the original no drop at all now?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

https://therealdeal.com/2022/1...

the institution started buying again, this time jp morgan

 I cannot comment on this.... (I bet Mr Carlos has an idea why)

Why :)

NDA's. Remember back to previous posts, more then enough light shed there. 
I can say any thought of big-$ having any struggle in SFR segment is SO not true. 1st hand knowledge. Just wait, few months there will be reporting's of things, there is BIG things happening, B-I-G. You ain't seen noting yet in the i-buyer space my friend. 

 That’s right, JP Morgan using Minneapolis based realtor to close their billion dollar purchases. 

I thought fed was communist for forcing rates so high so fast? Now you speak of it how great it is by tricking the public perception. Which one is it?

also, still predicting 15 percent drop by March? Or are you reverting back to the original no drop at all now?

what's funny (or hyprocrite) from the Fed is truly what they say and their action is very different than reality LOL.
Today  they said they want to increase the rate again albeit slowly, so the normal reaction would be the yield to be higher right, but instead
Yield is going to go another 1 month low with the dollar hitting 3 month low, the dollar position is almost similar to the May position.

What's astonishing too is the Fed keep injecting new liquidity to the market, so while they raise the terminal rate but effectively they do QE as new dollar increases. As result new home price is reaching new high this month, same happened to stock markt as well. I guess that would be an indirect result of the liquidity. Here's the snapshot of latest 15 days of Fed liquidity.