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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.
And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.
This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.
Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.
Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......
And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there......
But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made.......
But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......
I googled as you suggested.
You mean this dog crap spac that’s merging with your dog crap company? I’m sure blackstone is running so much business through this soon to be delisted spac turd.
Perhaps you should spend more time improving your business and clients instead of positing on BP.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Where's the "CRASH"???????
This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?! Let me guess, it's "coming".......
To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE.
So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right?
most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.
HOGWASH!
And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW!
I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it.
I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it.
I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions.
So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again?
FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.
You should be very very happy when the recession coming.
For you guys that always look at the mirror, when the recession is formally recognized, historically we have the following stats :
- stock market melting up
- Fed is lowering rate 400 BPS !! 300 bps in 12 months alone.
Of course, that's historically speaking.
Recession, please come LOL
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Daniel Smyth:
@Greg R.
Markets are local.
Like talking religion, talking about markets just makes one push the other.
The markets are good if you gamble with what you can afford to loose.
In 2007 and 2008 it was the same. Those who overextended themselves and then fell on hard times, lost big. I am that guy! Hard times recovered from, I have a new respect for hands on research and perhaps going a bit slower.
I talked to this Fortune magazine real estate-focused author to stop talking about nationwide and nationwide real estate.
real estate is hyper local, maximum is regional based.
now they think they're going to cover real estate as regional analysis only. If the crash is only in west coast, then folks shall call it west coast recession.
and 2022 is not 2007
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.
And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.
This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.
Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.
Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......
And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there......
But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made.......
But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......
I googled as you suggested.
You mean this dog crap spac that’s merging with your dog crap company? I’m sure blackstone is running so much business through this soon to be delisted spac turd.
Perhaps you should spend more time improving your business and clients instead of positing on BP.
I am RENTERS WAREHOUSE and NOT who ever the F you have highlighted here! I am so exhausted of your stalking, non stop harassment, LIES, slander, defamation!
Appreciate is NOT merging with us, we ARE Appreciate. Appreciate is our "crown" entity name, under which we have different "limbs", of which the "body" is Renters Warehouse. But you'd have to actually know something about REI at a substantial level to comprehend a massive corporate entity such as ours, and the billions in performing real estate we hold.
Get a clue kid and stop slandering because you start publicly slandering Appreciate your gonna have a nice time with legal buddy.
- James Hamling
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @Kevin Maher:
What is missing from all this discussion is actual data. What has happened in the past 90 days in SF or Colorado. In my market NW Fl inventory went from less than a month to 6 months of inventory over the past 180 days. With about 3 months showing up in the past 90 days with a 50% decline in sales. So with fewer buyers and more choices only the best deals close. Lowest price for the best house. The price is declining. Ask a local realtor for some real stats broke down by the month over the past year. More inventory the lower the price. You were all screaming a year ago no inventory higher price and now you can't see the opposite in front of you. Where is the data showing a increase in the median price in the past 90 days in your market.
Would you like to take this chance to address your LIE that FL has 6 months home inventory? To help you out I posted the TRUTH and FACTS of FL home inventory, which you can see is at a significant LOW right now. Feel free to add an explanation as to why you felt a need to state lies, that you knew were completely made up, and pretend they were facts. Or better known as malicious intent.
- James Hamling
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
- Minneapolis, MN
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Where's the "CRASH"???????
This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?! Let me guess, it's "coming".......
To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE.
So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right?
most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.
HOGWASH!
And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW!
I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it.
I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it.
I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions.
So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again?
FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.
You should be very very happy when the recession coming.
For you guys that always look at the mirror, when the recession is formally recognized, historically we have the following stats :
- stock market melting up
- Fed is lowering rate 400 BPS !! 300 bps in 12 months alone.
Of course, that's historically speaking.
Recession, please come LOL
I get a VERY strong sense some people require to read the below definition, as there seems to be a lot of insinuation recession is something completely different then what it ACTUALLY is.
- James Hamling
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.
And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.
This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.
Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.
Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......
And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there......
But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made.......
But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......
I googled as you suggested.
You mean this dog crap spac that’s merging with your dog crap company? I’m sure blackstone is running so much business through this soon to be delisted spac turd.
Perhaps you should spend more time improving your business and clients instead of positing on BP.
I am RENTERS WAREHOUSE and NOT who ever the F you have highlighted here! I am so exhausted of your stalking, non stop harassment, LIES, slander, defamation!
Appreciate is NOT merging with us, we ARE Appreciate. Appreciate is our "crown" entity name, under which we have different "limbs", of which the "body" is Renters Warehouse. But you'd have to actually know something about REI at a substantial level to comprehend a massive corporate entity such as ours, and the billions in performing real estate we hold.
Get a clue kid and stop slandering because you start publicly slandering Appreciate your gonna have a nice time with legal buddy.
So your company is down 60 percent this year. Out of curiosity why do you think that is?
https://www.nasdaq.com/videos/...
Maybe this will get it some exposure? Why wasn’t James hamlin invited to ring the bell?
you aren’t even on the website and you claim to be ceo?
If you didn’t constantly spout nonsense could take some of what you say at face value.
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
Blackstone is taking a mark to market hit, for sure. But I am not sure they are going to hit the sell button, because once they do they will never be able to get out of from underneath that. I can see them hitting every measure prior, and riding out the wave of depreciating house prices(in some markets) and selling a few in appreciated markets.
And if I'm wrong, cool, I'm a net buyer once I get ahold of my taxes owed in 2022.
This year, All private REIT funds from blackrock , JLL has a return of 8-10% this year, the weakest is GS Real Estate.
It's the only private investment asset class that is still solid and hypothetically safe.
Have more information on Blackstone, wondering why their return is so good this year. They made 13% NOI growth this year. The major reason is 90% of their property has an average fixed interest rate of 4% until 2028/2029. Pretty smart manager I guess.
Huh, almost as if they have retained some really great advisors on acquisition and operational strategy in the SFR segment....... Gee, I wonder if someone like them was looking for that kind of advisor, with National presence, like say 40+ brokerage locations throughout the US, and they gotta SPECIALIZE in SFR, huh, I wonder who that would be?.......
And wouldn't that really be something if say, one of the Senior Advisors at that group, wouldn't it be something if they just by chance happened to be keyed into BP community, maybe lent some insights and advise for all the "Average Janes'/John's" out there......
But, unfortunately, we'd really struggle to know exactly WHO that is because work like that would of course have layers of NDA's, and that brokerage would be of some size, like NASDAQ listed entity or something, and that brings in SEC oversight on top of it all, so that person would really have to watch the disclosures HE made.......
But I bet with just a bit of digging it would become real obvious real fast. Because they probably have the company there associated with listed, say in there signature line like so many do. And a quick google search would find that companies website, and I bet you they'd have a ton of info on investor services, and it would be some expansive stuff, even talking on major portfolio level. Probably just takes some googling and 15 minutes or so.......
I googled as you suggested.
You mean this dog crap spac that’s merging with your dog crap company? I’m sure blackstone is running so much business through this soon to be delisted spac turd.
Perhaps you should spend more time improving your business and clients instead of positing on BP.
I am RENTERS WAREHOUSE and NOT who ever the F you have highlighted here! I am so exhausted of your stalking, non stop harassment, LIES, slander, defamation!
Appreciate is NOT merging with us, we ARE Appreciate. Appreciate is our "crown" entity name, under which we have different "limbs", of which the "body" is Renters Warehouse. But you'd have to actually know something about REI at a substantial level to comprehend a massive corporate entity such as ours, and the billions in performing real estate we hold.
Get a clue kid and stop slandering because you start publicly slandering Appreciate your gonna have a nice time with legal buddy.
So your company is down 60 percent this year. Out of curiosity why do you think that is?
https://www.nasdaq.com/videos/...
Maybe this will get it some exposure? Why wasn’t James hamlin invited to ring the bell?
Your blocked, and for good reason. STOP slandering, STOP lieing! Stop stalking! Stop making up BS and trying to misguide and misinform.
This is your LAST warning. From here forward, it's all stick.
- James Hamling
https://www.vox.com/platform/a...
I knew something like this was going to be proposed. Even if it won’t happen on national level, expect this stuff to get passed at local levels.
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I totally agree that we will see pockets of "trying something" at the state and local level - rental increase caps, zoning changes, STR regs, etc. And I guess that will reinforce that there is no national housing market - you might have houses a few miles apart in different states with radically different laws.
What I like about this article though is that it utterly refutes all of the clickbait around how "every" rental is owned by Wall Street:
"So-called “mom-and-pop” investors, who own fewer properties, are growing at faster rates, and according to the National Rental Home Council, only 1.16 percent of single-family rental homes were owned by rental companies." Then another estimate following it is 1.6%.
Again, housing is regional, and there are zip codes and neighborhoods, especially in the south and sunbelt, where a high percentage of rentals are owned by large companies, and then entire states where they effectively own zero.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
https://www.vox.com/platform/a...
I knew something like this was going to be proposed. Even if it won’t happen on national level, expect this stuff to get passed at local levels.
I'm fine if it becomes the new regulation. In Hawaii it's started happening too. Now single-family non-primary where the host doesn't live there, can't airbnb their place. The purpose of this regulation is to make local people/FTHB to able to purchase the home and indirectly control home price appreciation.
So when it becomes rules nationwide, well yes , maybe that's good for greater good.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
sunbelt market started controlled by Ibuyer/institution since 2014, that time, the cap rate perhaps is still double digit, due to their investment, the sunbelts no longer have high cap rate.Also there will be excess MF supply in this area starting from 2024. Their target price long time ago was the one between 150k-400k area While west coast, has a very minuscule home owned by the institution because it has the lowest cap and gives them the lowest profit entirely. But the west region is the target market for the flipper/BRRR model.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Where's the "CRASH"???????
This posting PROMISED me a MINIMUM 20% drop in the NATIONAL median home sale price by now....... where'd it go?! Let me guess, it's "coming".......
To help keep this ultra-simple, I attached the ACTUAL facts and data below. Feel free to check it out yourself at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/se...
I know many like to say "well so and so says....", great, good for them, your confirmation bias found a supporting OPINION, I do not invest on Opinions, I don't reno Opinions, I don't rent Opinions, I don't flip Opinions, I do all these things to REAL ESTATE so the only thing that matters is what REAL ESTATE says and what the facts, numbers and data actually ARE.
So, where is that "CRASH"? Where is my 30% Fire-Sale discount IN-MASS I was promised? The OP said the sky was falling and if any said different, that were just "deniers". Soooo does that make the Real Estate Market a "denier"? Is the data a "denier"? Without doubt the Fed is certainly a "denier" right?
most economists predict the recession hits mid year 2023, if that means many people lose jobs then, it means they will need to sell their houses then. (not that i wish anyone lose their jobs, but it may just be coming) Do I think there will be a "crash" then? it really depends on how deep the recession will be and how many people need to sell. no one knows for sure, but everyone can speculate.
HOGWASH!
And I am SOOOOooooo exhausted with novices saying "well, no-one can know...." BS! I KNEW! Look up my historical posts, I KNEW!
I knew how covid moratoriums would play out, and I called it.
I knew there would be NO crash the last 2 years, and I DID forecast it.
I knew this whole OP premises was BS, and I ACCURATLY forecasted today, including Fed actions.
So if nobody can forecast things, exactly how do you explain ME?! How am I doing what you say "can't" be done, over and over and over again?
FYI; my occupation is, literally, forecasting REI.
You should be very very happy when the recession coming.
For you guys that always look at the mirror, when the recession is formally recognized, historically we have the following stats :
- stock market melting up
- Fed is lowering rate 400 BPS !! 300 bps in 12 months alone.
Of course, that's historically speaking.
Recession, please come LOL
I get a VERY strong sense some people require to read the below definition, as there seems to be a lot of insinuation recession is something completely different then what it ACTUALLY is.
I think Fed is really successful in influencing the brain and way of thinking of people in this country, the Fed wants to control your psychology. If you folks believe we will be in recession, lot of layoffs, and have very pessimistic view, then that's exactly what Fed really wants to do. Because after that, then you will be careful with your finances, not spending a lot, which in the end, reduces inflation entirely. That's good you are helping the Fed.
You guys that believe we are going towards recession are the same folks that on 12/9/2021 actually believe the covid is over and I have to buy every single home and the nicest car I have. I bet you have 3 covid shots too as well :) LOL
Although if we actually come down a little bit without emotion, we know what really happen is because in 2020 we have 40% new dollars in circulation, and now the Fed is just burning that money. While the world is shut down in 2020, the world started new economic boom in 2021 but was stopped by the Fed because they now realize they had mistake.
If the Fed/ECB doesn't just print more money in 2020 like gov. of Saudi Arabia/India/Bangladesh/South Africa/Russia then we wouldn't even have an inflation problem. And the inflation is actually still small in nature.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
I get a VERY strong sense some people require to read the below definition, as there seems to be a lot of insinuation recession is something completely different then what it ACTUALLY is.
we also need to remind our friend recession lover in this group:
- gdp is growing at 3%
- new 1 year inflation forecast has lowest reading since 2021
- dollar went down, yes!
- oil and gas is much cheaper now.
- massive calls in tlt :) LOL
- and...... customer sentiment this month is ticking up
The recession button is canceled because the Fed hits the wrong button. lol now the jpow grandpa afraid that he's overcooling the systems while he himself made it overheat in 2020
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
- Real Estate Broker
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Joanne Tsai:
Quote from @James Hamling:
I think Fed is really successful in influencing the brain and way of thinking of people in this country, the Fed wants to control your psychology. If you folks believe we will be in recession, lot of layoffs, and have very pessimistic view, then that's exactly what Fed really wants to do. Because after that, then you will be careful with your finances, not spending a lot, which in the end, reduces inflation entirely. That's good you are helping the Fed.
You guys that believe we are going towards recession are the same folks that on 12/9/2021 actually believe the covid is over and I have to buy every single home and the nicest car I have. I bet you have 3 covid shots too as well :) LOL
Although if we actually come down a little bit without emotion, we know what really happen is because in 2020 we have 40% new dollars in circulation, and now the Fed is just burning that money. While the world is shut down in 2020, the world started new economic boom in 2021 but was stopped by the Fed because they now realize they had mistake.
If the Fed/ECB doesn't just print more money in 2020 like gov. of Saudi Arabia/India/Bangladesh/South Africa/Russia then we wouldn't even have an inflation problem. And the inflation is actually still small in nature.
Very well said, only question is how many on BP can comprehend this? I think you may need to add a tic-tac dance to it to get most on BP to pay attention, lol. Financial literacy is the real "crash" of the day.......
- James Hamling
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
I get a VERY strong sense some people require to read the below definition, as there seems to be a lot of insinuation recession is something completely different then what it ACTUALLY is.
we also need to remind our friend recession lover in this group:
- gdp is growing at 3%
- new 1 year inflation forecast has lowest reading since 2021
- dollar went down, yes!
- oil and gas is much cheaper now.
- massive calls in tlt :) LOL
- and...... customer sentiment this month is ticking up
The recession button is canceled because the Fed hits the wrong button. lol now the jpow grandpa afraid that he's overcooling the systems while he himself made it overheat in 2020
Problem is Carlos, we are reading economic data, we are considering policy actions, we are factoring lynch-pin theory, we are accounting supply-demand curve and logistical supply impact, we are trying to take this multitude of factors and discern what it all means, which YES it will show one the future path BECAUSE the future, economically speaking, is not all that impossible to know because economics moves soooooo sloooooowwwwwlllleeeeyyyyy. Economics is a road, and it requires layers laid upon layers laid upon layers. yes, the "base" is set months and years ahead of time, this is a certain outline of where things can go. That's why total derailments DON'T result in wild instantaneous different direction's such as '08' breaking of the MBS securitization system, it results in a STOP. Things just STOP dead in there tracks, like tires falling off a car, it just stops then and there.
What so many of the others are doing is "reading" there EMOTIONS of what they SEE on HEADLINES, what they HEAR on YT, and then running around with hair on fire shouting there EMOTIONS, which in simplest form is "2008/9 2.0!, it's happening again, it's happening again, it's gonna be 2009 any day now!". That is purely emotions speaking, and expression of feelings, that the FEAR feeling is of a 2009 world again. Which in itself those shouting this are at same time declaring there ignorance for financial and economic literacy, that they don't know what it all means, so there defaulting to FEAR, because that's how the mammal brain works. So it's FEAR, with UNKNOWN, so they default to the KNOWN fears of what happens in big economic calamity which is 2008/9.
Ok, there ya go, that's enough time on my couch getting weeks therapy session, feel free to send payment, lol. Seriously, I need to start charging for "Economic Therapy" sessions. "No, the sky isn't falling, I know, I know, that media got ya all worked up, it's ok, chill out, take a breath, breath, just breath....".
- James Hamling
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level.
At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level.
At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now.
it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation
we know now in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER compare to 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.
When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level.
At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now.
it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation
we now know in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER in 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.
When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.
Yeah that is for sure rates won’t be higher in 2025. We still haven’t proven yet the economy can fully function on a high terminal rate for prolonged period of time. Powell has 25 percent wiggle room in spx before he needs to telegraph rate cuts next year. Layoffs will be en masse after New Years. If job market is weak, “plans” for these new giants will go on hold. Market sentiment can change quickly.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level.
At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now.
it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation
we now know in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER in 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.
When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.
Yeah that is for sure rates won’t be higher in 2025. We still haven’t proven yet the economy can fully function on a high terminal rate for prolonged period of time. Powell has 25 percent wiggle room in spx before he needs to telegraph rate cuts next year. Layoffs will be en masse after New Years. If job market is weak, “plans” for these new giants will go on hold. Market sentiment can change quickly. Inflation still has a lot to fall as well so not expecting in back pedaling from Powell at all until 2-3 percent annualized inflation.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @John Carbone:
The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now.
in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.
I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.
Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level.
At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now.
it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation
we now know in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER in 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.
When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.
Yeah that is for sure rates won’t be higher in 2025. We still haven’t proven yet the economy can fully function on a high terminal rate for prolonged period of time. Powell has 25 percent wiggle room in spx before he needs to telegraph rate cuts next year. Layoffs will be en masse after New Years. If job market is weak, “plans” for these new giants will go on hold. Market sentiment can change quickly. Inflation still has a lot to fall as well so not expecting in back pedaling from Powell at all until 2-3 percent annualized inflation.
we are going 4% rate in 2025.
inflation is reaching 4%-5% in Dec 2023.
By January 3, 2025 investor in this group thinks like it's 2013 again lol
@Greg R. I think this question is very simple. It will be location dependent. Real estate these days, we have investors buying and selling more and more all over the country vs localized. If you plan to invest, you research different markets, find the most stable local economies and invest. The area I live was not really affected by 2008 and I believe won't be during this cycle either. Large Corp keeps moving in and Jobs keep increasing in our area. Your post seems that you want to mitigate risk so find those communities that are stable.