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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
Sorry, I just heard of this new invention called "Google"...
"The Fed can increase the money supply by lowering the reserve requirements for banks,
which allows them to lend more money. Conversely, by raising the banks'
reserve requirements, the Fed can decrease the size of the money
supply." - Investopedia
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Chris John:
Sorry if you've already explained this (there's a lot to read through...)
What process does the fed use to increase and decrease the money supply? I hear people refer to it all the time, but I have no idea of the mechanics behind it.
Thanks
So quantitivate tightening (burning dollar) project is executed via reverse repo and Treasury General Account. I don't also know about this much before until I learned from someone with IQ 10 times from me. The data for both is available to the public.
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
supply chain issue due to Covid and Ukraine war.
Are you sure these are the only two causes?
three.... M2 supply is the biggest.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
supply chain issue due to Covid and Ukraine war.
Are you sure these are the only two causes?
three.... M2 supply is the biggest.
you can add more lol
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Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
"At the start of Covid, the world rapidly moved online and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized revenue growth. Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments. Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected. Not only has online commerce returned to prior trends, but the macroeconomic downturn, increased competition, and ads signal loss have caused our revenue to be much lower than I’d expected. I got this wrong, and I take responsibility for that."
This perfectly aligns with what we've seen in the housing market. Many of the folks who have over committed and over leveraged are standing firm that the growth and acceleration seen since Covid would be permanent. However, it's not. It's simply not sustainable. We're barreling toward a recession, and I fear that a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Housing prices will come down - you're guess is as good as mine as to how much, but they will come down. I believe significantly.
You can say that this is a tech company and not analogous to the housing market, but Meta has behaved very much like aggressive housing consumers (including some RE investors) in the last two years, and look where they are now.
My Daughter is in finance at Intel been there straight out of college so 20 years now.. her pay with benefits stock options extra is over 3 large . she was just in a meeting and as we know Intel is also talking about layoffs.. She said they are going to follow the airlines.. first folks are going to get an option for early retirement once those folks take advantage of that then they will determine layoffs.. Severance for my Daughter is 48 weeks FULL Pay.. She does not want to leave but did make in inquiry and got a job offer straight away for basically same pay.. So thats just one person with deep experience in her field she is not worried at all and on top of that she is a Dave Ramsey disciple so has no debt except for a few rentals she has . So bottom line does not want to go some where else but sure she will find employment with equal pay and bene's.. So have to think many others in the same position at least in Tech and very long tenured .
- Jay Hinrichs
- Podcast Guest on Show #222
Quote from @James Hamling:
So in REALITY, 650k divorces means what % owns homes, maybe 325k. AND of that, how many are 1 spouse not staying in and keeping the home, maybe 115k. Ok, so REALITY is "as many as" 192 properties coming onto the sale market per STATE, per month. On an average LOW volume month like now, any average states has about what, 4,000 listings per month? Oh no, 200 homes.........
I'm pretty sure you don't even read the posts you reply to. Which makes a lot of sense due to the amount of idiocracy in your replies.
Not all, but a good amount of home sales are due to life events. Again, I know this is a really difficult concept for you to grasp - but trust me, this is a real thing. Life happens.
Divorces, deaths, loss of income, relocation, retirement, etc., etc. There are a ton of reasons why people are forced to sell.
So right on cue, rather than presenting actual data to support your claim, you conjure up some fictional numbers 😂😂. But who cares about real data. We'll recap the science behind you analysis with this...
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
"At the start of Covid, the world rapidly moved online and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized revenue growth. Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments. Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected. Not only has online commerce returned to prior trends, but the macroeconomic downturn, increased competition, and ads signal loss have caused our revenue to be much lower than I’d expected. I got this wrong, and I take responsibility for that."
This perfectly aligns with what we've seen in the housing market. Many of the folks who have over committed and over leveraged are standing firm that the growth and acceleration seen since Covid would be permanent. However, it's not. It's simply not sustainable. We're barreling toward a recession, and I fear that a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Housing prices will come down - you're guess is as good as mine as to how much, but they will come down. I believe significantly.
You can say that this is a tech company and not analogous to the housing market, but Meta has behaved very much like aggressive housing consumers (including some RE investors) in the last two years, and look where they are now.
My Daughter is in finance at Intel been there straight out of college so 20 years now.. her pay with benefits stock options extra is over 3 large . she was just in a meeting and as we know Intel is also talking about layoffs.. She said they are going to follow the airlines.. first folks are going to get an option for early retirement once those folks take advantage of that then they will determine layoffs.. Severance for my Daughter is 48 weeks FULL Pay.. She does not want to leave but did make in inquiry and got a job offer straight away for basically same pay.. So thats just one person with deep experience in her field she is not worried at all and on top of that she is a Dave Ramsey disciple so has no debt except for a few rentals she has . So bottom line does not want to go some where else but sure she will find employment with equal pay and bene's.. So have to think many others in the same position at least in Tech and very long tenured .
Meta gave 16 weeks, Twitter 12 weeks, Lyft 10 weeks, Stripe 14, etc. Executives and other high ranking people could definitely get more, but standard seems to be 2-4 months.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
OMG that's exactly what I am saying, but in reverse.
If the layoff doesn't impact engineering team and only impacting corporate support, that's OK.
Even then, usually company chop the head where the organization is not making money, which is OK to chop that area.
See when 10,000 people get laid off it doesn't have an effect to company bottom line if that 10,000 folks/group is not making money, that's even making the company beter, and those guys if they're good they can find job the next day.
i tell you what, we have RECORD GREAT RESIGNATION IN 2021 IN ALL TECH COMPANY, all tech company are looking for people....
In San Jose alone we have 8000 engineering jobs opening right now, while available home listing is only 800
stop reading stupid headline that would confirm your bias, read the statistic yooo
I don't dispute this. A majority of the time it's great for the company, but that wasn't my point. My point is that people are still getting laid off and losing really good jobs with great benefits. Not many companies pay the way tech does nor do they offer the same benefits.
Are these various administrative positions as in demand as engineers? No. We are in agreement that this isn't about developers.
Did you ever think that there might be a reason there are so many vacancies in the bay area? Could have a little something to do with the cost of living, politics, homelessness, etc. Seems that a lot of developers got fed up with the bay and moved off to greener pastures in places like Texas and FL.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
"At the start of Covid, the world rapidly moved online and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized revenue growth. Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments. Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected. Not only has online commerce returned to prior trends, but the macroeconomic downturn, increased competition, and ads signal loss have caused our revenue to be much lower than I’d expected. I got this wrong, and I take responsibility for that."
This perfectly aligns with what we've seen in the housing market. Many of the folks who have over committed and over leveraged are standing firm that the growth and acceleration seen since Covid would be permanent. However, it's not. It's simply not sustainable. We're barreling toward a recession, and I fear that a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Housing prices will come down - you're guess is as good as mine as to how much, but they will come down. I believe significantly.
You can say that this is a tech company and not analogous to the housing market, but Meta has behaved very much like aggressive housing consumers (including some RE investors) in the last two years, and look where they are now.
My Daughter is in finance at Intel been there straight out of college so 20 years now.. her pay with benefits stock options extra is over 3 large . she was just in a meeting and as we know Intel is also talking about layoffs.. She said they are going to follow the airlines.. first folks are going to get an option for early retirement once those folks take advantage of that then they will determine layoffs.. Severance for my Daughter is 48 weeks FULL Pay.. She does not want to leave but did make in inquiry and got a job offer straight away for basically same pay.. So thats just one person with deep experience in her field she is not worried at all and on top of that she is a Dave Ramsey disciple so has no debt except for a few rentals she has . So bottom line does not want to go some where else but sure she will find employment with equal pay and bene's.. So have to think many others in the same position at least in Tech and very long tenured .
Meta gave 16 weeks, Twitter 12 weeks, Lyft 10 weeks, Stripe 14, etc. Executives and other high ranking people could definitely get more, but standard seems to be 2-4 months.
depends on the tenure on the company boss, usually 3 weeks per 1 year in the company.
Sometimes, GETTING LAYOFF IS THE BEST OUTCOME FOR TECH People like us. Stop giving sympathy to us and make it reason for home downfall :)
If I get laidoff, it's the best interest of my company competitor interest LOL
... except coming to Google, interviewing at other company is easy, piece of cake.
My son 19 year old this week got offered at zillow as software guy, he had interview at roblox, UBS, cisco and many others, all his classmates already got job as well..100%.... we have negative unemployment lol
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Greg R.:
@Chris Clothier @John Carbone @Carlos Ptriawan @Bruce Woodruff @Jay Hinrichs
Yesterday Meta (Facebook) laid off +/- 11k employees. In a letter to the company, Zuck stated:
"At the start of Covid, the world rapidly moved online and the surge of e-commerce led to outsized revenue growth. Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments. Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected. Not only has online commerce returned to prior trends, but the macroeconomic downturn, increased competition, and ads signal loss have caused our revenue to be much lower than I’d expected. I got this wrong, and I take responsibility for that."
This perfectly aligns with what we've seen in the housing market. Many of the folks who have over committed and over leveraged are standing firm that the growth and acceleration seen since Covid would be permanent. However, it's not. It's simply not sustainable. We're barreling toward a recession, and I fear that a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. Housing prices will come down - you're guess is as good as mine as to how much, but they will come down. I believe significantly.
You can say that this is a tech company and not analogous to the housing market, but Meta has behaved very much like aggressive housing consumers (including some RE investors) in the last two years, and look where they are now.
My Daughter is in finance at Intel been there straight out of college so 20 years now.. her pay with benefits stock options extra is over 3 large . she was just in a meeting and as we know Intel is also talking about layoffs.. She said they are going to follow the airlines.. first folks are going to get an option for early retirement once those folks take advantage of that then they will determine layoffs.. Severance for my Daughter is 48 weeks FULL Pay.. She does not want to leave but did make in inquiry and got a job offer straight away for basically same pay.. So thats just one person with deep experience in her field she is not worried at all and on top of that she is a Dave Ramsey disciple so has no debt except for a few rentals she has . So bottom line does not want to go some where else but sure she will find employment with equal pay and bene's.. So have to think many others in the same position at least in Tech and very long tenured .
Meta gave 16 weeks, Twitter 12 weeks, Lyft 10 weeks, Stripe 14, etc. Executives and other high ranking people could definitely get more, but standard seems to be 2-4 months.
depends on the tenure on the company boss, usually 3 weeks per 1 year in the company.
Sometimes, GETTING LAYOFF IS THE BEST OUTCOME FOR TECH People like us. Stop giving sympathy to us and make it reason for home downfall :)
If I get laidoff, it's the best interest of my company competitor interest LOL
... except coming to Google, interviewing at other company is easy, piece of cake.
My son 19 year old this week got offered at zillow as software guy, he had interview at roblox, UBS, cisco and many others, all his classmates already got job as well..100%.... we have negative unemployment lol
Developers and tech folks are in a good place right now. However, let's be clear, because I can see James barrel in here making some more uninformed comments. A majority of these tens of thousands of people laid off from tech companies are not developers. Many of them are in administrative roles.
Great news about your son. I wish him all the best. Sounds like he's in an excellent position for a 19 year old.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
stop reading stupid headline that would confirm your bias, read the statistic yooo
I don't dispute this. A majority of the time it's great for the company, but that wasn't my point. My point is that people are still getting laid off and losing really good jobs with great benefits. Not many companies pay the way tech does nor do they offer the same benefits.
Are these various administrative positions as in demand as engineers? No. We are in agreement that this isn't about developers.
Did you ever think that there might be a reason there are so many vacancies in the bay area? Could have a little something to do with the cost of living, politics, homelessness, etc. Seems that a lot of developers got fed up with the bay and moved off to greener pastures in places like Texas and FL.
I think you are seriously thinking too much, you keep saying there's disaster or earthquake in CA while it's still jam pack people working. Administrative demand job, while not easy to fill up, has their own niche as well, they may take longer to get a job.
There's a serious recession if you are a realtor though, I know one that no longer sells houses in the last 5 months and thinking of switching careers.
Everyone in the mortgage industry is facing the same issue. This recession is very sectoral.
We have a booming economy in the weapon technology area but we have a crash also in Cyrpto investments technology. However, when engineers or administrative official got laid off from BlockFi for example (Crypto company), they can move across industry that's more stable, like Lockheed martin. It happened many times.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
stop reading stupid headline that would confirm your bias, read the statistic yooo
I don't dispute this. A majority of the time it's great for the company, but that wasn't my point. My point is that people are still getting laid off and losing really good jobs with great benefits. Not many companies pay the way tech does nor do they offer the same benefits.
Are these various administrative positions as in demand as engineers? No. We are in agreement that this isn't about developers.
Did you ever think that there might be a reason there are so many vacancies in the bay area? Could have a little something to do with the cost of living, politics, homelessness, etc. Seems that a lot of developers got fed up with the bay and moved off to greener pastures in places like Texas and FL.
I think you are seriously thinking too much, you keep saying there's disaster or earthquake in CA while it's still jam pack people working. Administrative demand job, while not easy to fill up, has their own niche as well, they may take longer to get a job.
There's a serious recession if you are a realtor though, I know one that no longer sells houses in the last 5 months and thinking of switching careers.
Everyone in the mortgage industry is facing the same issue. This recession is very sectoral.
We have a booming economy in the weapon technology area but we have a crash also in Cyrpto investments technology. However, when engineers or administrative official got laid off from BlockFi for example (Crypto company), they can move across industry that's more stable, like Lockheed martin. It happened many times.
Yes, there's still a lot of people there, including my family, but there are also a ton of people who saw the writing on the wall and didn't want to deal with all the nonsense going on in the state.
Agree about folks in the RE industry, this is a severe drought for them. Hopefully they have something they can fall back on until the market rebounds.
I sure hope the weapons industry doesn't boom too much. However, seems like the politicians will make sure they stay busy. Not an industry I'd want to be a part of.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
stop reading stupid headline that would confirm your bias, read the statistic yooo
I don't dispute this. A majority of the time it's great for the company, but that wasn't my point. My point is that people are still getting laid off and losing really good jobs with great benefits. Not many companies pay the way tech does nor do they offer the same benefits.
Are these various administrative positions as in demand as engineers? No. We are in agreement that this isn't about developers.
Did you ever think that there might be a reason there are so many vacancies in the bay area? Could have a little something to do with the cost of living, politics, homelessness, etc. Seems that a lot of developers got fed up with the bay and moved off to greener pastures in places like Texas and FL.
I think you are seriously thinking too much, you keep saying there's disaster or earthquake in CA while it's still jam pack people working. Administrative demand job, while not easy to fill up, has their own niche as well, they may take longer to get a job.
There's a serious recession if you are a realtor though, I know one that no longer sells houses in the last 5 months and thinking of switching careers.
Everyone in the mortgage industry is facing the same issue. This recession is very sectoral.
We have a booming economy in the weapon technology area but we have a crash also in Cyrpto investments technology. However, when engineers or administrative official got laid off from BlockFi for example (Crypto company), they can move across industry that's more stable, like Lockheed martin. It happened many times.
Yes, there's still a lot of people there, including my family, but there are also a ton of people who saw the writing on the wall and didn't want to deal with all the nonsense going on in the state.
Agree about folks in the RE industry, this is a severe drought for them. Hopefully they have something they can fall back on until the market rebounds.
I sure hope the weapons industry doesn't boom too much. However, seems like the politicians will make sure they stay busy. Not an industry I'd want to be a part of.
It is what it is, Bay Area is the highest GDP in the country currently but for the future, I guess Austin,TX would be quickly rising too so we can move there peacefully LOL
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
It is what it is, Bay Area is the highest GDP in the country currently but for the future, I guess Austin,TX would be quickly rising too so we can move there peacefully LOL
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
It is what it is, Bay Area is the highest GDP in the country currently but for the future, I guess Austin,TX would be quickly rising too so we can move there peacefully LOL
CA folks bring trouble everywhere LOL
Mortgage rates set to drop next year. Seems like time will have an impact just not what some are expecting:
Came across an interesting piece of data. Phoenix inventory has now surpassed where it was in Nov 2019. Most people who believed that the market couldn't crash or correct used inventory as their primary reason as to why. Still early, but inventory is starting to raise in several of the markets I'm following.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Came across an interesting piece of data. Phoenix inventory has now surpassed where it was in Nov 2019. Most people who believed that the market couldn't crash or correct used inventory as their primary reason as to why. Still early, but inventory is starting to raise in several of the markets I'm following.
February would be the most interesting watch to monitor ….let’s check Phoenix updates
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Given the direction of the thread this is sort of funny little tidbit of news. https://finbold.com/bitcoin-ad...
Bitcoin adds $15 billion in 15 minutes as CPI data comes in lower than expected hahaha I'm probably the only one here who mentioned that Inflation would be lowered quickly. I even share the data analytics from JP Morgan. The Fed knows that their data is lagging 12-16 months but as Food, medical insurance, used car and gas service is all going down. Even James saying inflation would be here to stay. NO.
So how do I know that ? the fastest way to reduce inflation is by : taking the money out of circulation. This is the real trick.
So what one must do to track Inflation progress is check Fed Balance Sheet position along with M2 in circulation, I keep hunting this information and have been telling you the balance sheet now (if we calculate it correctly) is on the same level as mid-level of 2020. It has regressed a lot.
Next few months, the inflation number would be down as well as the shelter is catching up with the downtrend and hopefully energy price keeps going down.Fed evans already announced by 2025 the inflation is 2% again, it will take 24 months.
Now if FFR is between 4.5-5% in 2023 and yield around 3.5-4%, expect 30YFRM around 6.5-7.0 then. Not sure what would be the impact later on the house inventory.
Carlos, you and I have a different comprehension level in economics then the vast majority out there, and thus our language is a bit different speaking in exact correct econ language vs common tongue.
When I say inflation is here to stay, I am speaking in "common tongue" and in reference in terms of the price basis of items. I am NOT saying inflation rate is "here to stay" as in inflation will remain ~8%, or even ~6%, no, that would be nuts right.
When most people are saying, in common tongue, about relief from inflation, they mean prices going back to what they were 6, 12, 18, 24 months ago. Which you and I know is not inflation stopping but deflation.
So to be more accurate I have been, and ma still forecasting with absolute conviction that no serious or substantial DEFLATION will occur. Not now or any time soon. That this is an event that is a re-setting event for pricing basis. That includes homes, fuel, food, automobiles etc.
Now that does not mean everything will sit at it's high, but a 15% step-back from highs is not a return when the run-up was say 54%. A 15% step-back is CONSOLIDATION, which is indication of a new price/cost basis being formed and reinforced.
I did NOT anticipate the rate of inflation abating this soon, that is a surprise. I was looking more towards January, something post holiday consumer actions as I can see the holiday consumer cycle propping up consumer activity. This level of decline, at this time, raises the question of did the Fed most recently over-steer. I am certain that is a conversation they are having at this time, and will continue having into December for next actions.
I still believe holiday consumer activity will have an impact and for that, I do believe December will be another rate increase coming from Nov. read, although I expect something of 50 basis points or possibly even 25, not 0 and certainly not a reduction, no way a reduction. I think the Fed will want to see a full quarter of good reads before doing any kind of reduction and when they do, i would expect it to be in very small measure like 25 basis points.
ALTHOUGH the political powers are already talking about MORE stimulus injections now..... ugh...... So more inflationary actions to combat inflation while Fed is trying to lower. I have no doubt someone at Fed made a call to the hill on this. Injecting more "stimulus" is just feeding the inflation monster all the more, I am clueless why these politicians don't grasp it at this point, it's not that complicated.
Remember, this "good" CPI report was on Month over Month INCREASE, not on CPI as a whole as some may think in say, today vs a year or 2 ago. CPI for the year is still sitting around 8%. AND how CPI is calculated leaves out some factors that may shock the average person.
"the Consumer Price Index rose by a less-than-expected 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release, the same increase as in September. Core CPI (that is, excluding volatile food and energy) rose 0.3% after a 0.6% rise in September. Overall, year-over-year inflation was down to 7.7%, the lowest it has been since January 2022."
https://www.brookings.edu/blog...
I will point out, as detailed in the above, the general consensus is this Oct CPI read is hopeful BUT the inflation itself is considered here to stay, or some time before any deflation of any real size. Don't get "A" hopeful report mixed up with an "all clear" designation, they are not the same.
Welcome to the new normal is my thoughts.
- James Hamling
Austin is another one that has exceeded 2019 inventory levels...
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Given the direction of the thread this is sort of funny little tidbit of news. https://finbold.com/bitcoin-ad...
Bitcoin adds $15 billion in 15 minutes as CPI data comes in lower than expected hahaha I'm probably the only one here who mentioned that Inflation would be lowered quickly. I even share the data analytics from JP Morgan. The Fed knows that their data is lagging 12-16 months but as Food, medical insurance, used car and gas service is all going down. Even James saying inflation would be here to stay. NO.
So how do I know that ? the fastest way to reduce inflation is by : taking the money out of circulation. This is the real trick.
So what one must do to track Inflation progress is check Fed Balance Sheet position along with M2 in circulation, I keep hunting this information and have been telling you the balance sheet now (if we calculate it correctly) is on the same level as mid-level of 2020. It has regressed a lot.
Next few months, the inflation number would be down as well as the shelter is catching up with the downtrend and hopefully energy price keeps going down.Fed evans already announced by 2025 the inflation is 2% again, it will take 24 months.
Now if FFR is between 4.5-5% in 2023 and yield around 3.5-4%, expect 30YFRM around 6.5-7.0 then. Not sure what would be the impact later on the house inventory.
Carlos, you and I have a different comprehension level in economics then the vast majority out there, and thus our language is a bit different speaking in exact correct econ language vs common tongue.
When I say inflation is here to stay, I am speaking in "common tongue" and in reference in terms of the price basis of items. I am NOT saying inflation rate is "here to stay" as in inflation will remain ~8%, or even ~6%, no, that would be nuts right.
When most people are saying, in common tongue, about relief from inflation, they mean prices going back to what they were 6, 12, 18, 24 months ago. Which you and I know is not inflation stopping but deflation.
Yes, that's very true, especially for Food item, usually, it would be like this:
1 lbs chicken March 2019: $1.05
1 lbs chicken March 2020: $1.20
1 lbs chicken March 2021: $1.40
1 lbs chicken March 2022: $1.80
then on
March 2023: $1.70 ... for a while and we will accept that as new normal.
For Real Estate prices, the correlation is extremely correlated to the cap rate based on my study.
We have zip code here in 2022 where the price is gratifying between 2017-2021 levels but most other zip codes like in MN is printing the new high every year.
Price of real estate is possible to regress to the prior year value if demand is not there in the low cap rate market.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Austin is another one that has exceeded 2019 inventory levels...
Austin price level now is equal to February 2022 pricing, our market regressed to September 2021.
I think Austin may be stable once it reached 2021-level prices. During 2022, what is very interesting is Austin is better in performance compared to Bay Area. Meaning the demand is more robust there.
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
One more... Las Vegas NV is another city that has also surpassed 2019 inventory levels.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Greg R.:
Some other interesting news... A Federal Judge in Texas blocked Biden's loan forgiveness program. If this sticks and can only be possible through a bill passed by congress, it'll be dead in the water if the R's take the house.
I knew a couple people who were banking on this, so this would be a big blow to those who were expecting relief from their high intertest loans.
I think the biggest impact this year in the mega crash level would be the crypto wipeout. The impact in term of dollar is huge, maybe most Silicon VC now are 25% poorer after their stupidity :-) Their level of corruption inside the crypto business is amazing. Such in a way that the money coming from FTX is being re-invested to Sequoia (its own funder), that's Ponzi scheme.
But wait, there're a lot of folks here even in BP that restart to buy crypto LOL
Greg as long as there're crazy people there we don't know what would happen. Few years ago I thought NFT and Metaverse is joke.