Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

I would put zero stock on any 'news reports' like that. Every couple days the 'experts' say something different. They have no clue, probably much less than we do on this forum.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

I would put zero stock on any 'news reports' like that. Every couple days the 'experts' say something different. They have no clue, probably much less than we do on this forum.

 This is not news report actually, some Fed chairman has indicated they want to stop rate hikes after Nov final rate hikes. THis is what makes everyone confused as some of Fed chairmen no longer have the same voice. 

It's very tricky I know.

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

I would put zero stock on any 'news reports' like that. Every couple days the 'experts' say something different. They have no clue, probably much less than we do on this forum.

 This is not news report actually, some Fed chairman has indicated they want to stop rate hikes after Nov final rate hikes. THis is what makes everyone confused as some of Fed chairmen no longer have the same voice. 

It's very tricky I know.

Not to mention the markets are super careful with this sort of thing. It’s telling in a lot of ways. Guaranteed? Nope. but it’s a very interesting sign. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

I would put zero stock on any 'news reports' like that. Every couple days the 'experts' say something different. They have no clue, probably much less than we do on this forum.

 This is not news report actually, some Fed chairman has indicated they want to stop rate hikes after Nov final rate hikes. THis is what makes everyone confused as some of Fed chairmen no longer have the same voice. 

It's very tricky I know.

 Nor would I give any credence to what a Fed clown says..... just my .02

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

I would put zero stock on any 'news reports' like that. Every couple days the 'experts' say something different. They have no clue, probably much less than we do on this forum.

 This is not news report actually, some Fed chairman has indicated they want to stop rate hikes after Nov final rate hikes. THis is what makes everyone confused as some of Fed chairmen no longer have the same voice. 

It's very tricky I know.

 Nor would I give any credence to what a Fed clown says..... just my .02

Ugh this thread and comment is begging for an ”ok boomer”….. :) 
 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Ugh this thread and comment is begging for an ”ok boomer”….. :) 
 

 Ok, let er rip.... 🤣

But ya gotta admit the Fed is a joke and the guys that run it are generally clueless though right?

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Ugh this thread and comment is begging for an ”ok boomer”….. :) 
 

 Ok, let er rip.... 🤣

But ya gotta admit the Fed is a joke and the guys that run it are generally clueless though right?

 Kidding just your answer was perfect for it.

And to an extent yes I feel that way about the fed, to an extent no.

Frankly I made a comment that I believe politics should never be in play when it comes to money. Half of the issues with fed in my opinion center around politics. Most money issues do. I can point to tax cuts causing problems and I can point to spending causing problems. Not always for either just dependent on timing. 

The problem is politically they implement them regardless of what the need is and only what politically is in line at the time. 

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Heck the President nominates the Fed Board. And they try and tell us that it's not political..... 🤣

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Heck the President nominates the Fed Board. And they try and tell us that it's not political..... 🤣

Bias always exists. It’s all about mitigation whether we are talking politics or business for that matter, 

If it didn’t exist we obviously would not have lobbyists… 

 The sad thing is over about the last 15 years roughly neither party has been able to reduce their bias when it’s needed. BUt then culturally that is where we are at I suppose. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Heck the President nominates the Fed Board. And they try and tell us that it's not political..... 🤣

Bias always exists. It’s all about mitigation whether we are talking politics or business for that matter, 

If it didn’t exist we obviously would not have lobbyists… 

 The sad thing is over about the last 15 years roughly neither party has been able to reduce their bias when it’s needed. BUt then culturally that is where we are at I suppose. 

 Thing is we don't know this fed chairman is working for who

the way I see it any fed policy is only giving an advantage to ........... china lol :)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Ugh this thread and comment is begging for an ”ok boomer”….. :) 
 

 Ok, let er rip.... 🤣

But ya gotta admit the Fed is a joke and the guys that run it are generally clueless though right?

 the clueless grandpa haha

[Walter Correia]

@Greg Scott with record inflation is it likely to force people to tap into their equity to fund their retirement if their stock/bond portfolio aren’t performing well? Would they also take out their home equity to help family members being affected by this record inflation?

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Walter Correia:

@Greg Scott with record inflation is it likely to force people to tap into their equity to fund their retirement if their stock/bond portfolio aren’t performing well? Would they also take out their home equity to help family members being affected by this record inflation?

 Income is also up. Not quite that simple and people tend to not look to those items for inflation historically. Right now CC debt is up (still below the high historically). Where this all goes is going to come down to the rest of the year. If we stay in line with expect trends on fed rates and inflation. We oddly enough should come out semi-ok. 

But we’ve got a world impacted by this - many countries worse - right now I’d be concerned about a domino outside our country than in at the moment. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

You always got the thing correctly @Michael Wooldridge, which is good.

See here's the difference between inflation in US and inflation in other parts of the world due to financial currency crises like Mexico debt in 1990, South east asian 1998, Argentina's defaults,etc. In those countries, the crisis happened when debt in the dollar is larger while they can't print the dollar and people has static/reduced income.

Inflation in US in 2022 is extremely different. We got into inflation because people's income and saving has increased tremendously in the last two years, it's coming from the asset bubble and injection of subsidy from the US gov.  It's not really an inflation IF your saving increased 5 times and your spending only increased of more few hundred dollar for your BBQ grocery store.

So Fed chairman at least agrees to do one thing : tightening.

What they do not agree is to what level. 

What they agree on:
- they agree the neutral FFR is 2.5%
-with neutral FFR like this, US economy still generally strong, including labour market. But it already caused so much trouble in Europe that lot of funds is going to be out of capital. So this is more like European crisis now rather than US financial crisis. 
-Even with this neutral FFR, the Fed/treasury started to lose money and they don't really do QT fully since the  other country has to relentless sell US Bond (mainly Japan and China) ; this keep yiel rising, as an affect they need to keep injecting liquidity thru buyback of T-Bill and FX swap lines.
- The FX swap line by Suiss bank has reached higher debt than 2008 level. The FX lines are also useful to minimize the impact of increasing bond yield after other country sell more US bonds.  

Most neutral economist outside the Fed camp als has two different opinion, whether today inflation is caused by money supply only or it's just temporary supply chain issue, if it's just temporariy supply chain issue then there's no need to increase rate that much. 

There're lot of things that the Fed doesnot tell us, but lot of other folks smarter than me able to figure out what is their actual plan would be. For example, the Fed already reduced their balanced sheet since June 2021 from RRP operation. Today in October, they seem they no longer reduce asset that much. Market is very near to their end of year SPX fair value of 3400-3500.

[Robert Esposito]

@Bill Brandt I may be incorrect, but 12 years ago was 2010 and weren't we still in a major real estate correction?

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

You always got the thing correctly @Michael Wooldridge, which is good.

See here's the difference between inflation in US and inflation in other parts of the world due to financial currency crises like Mexico debt in 1990, South east asian 1998, Argentina's defaults,etc. In those countries, the crisis happened when debt in the dollar is larger while they can't print the dollar and people has static/reduced income.

Inflation in US in 2022 is extremely different. We got into inflation because people's income and saving has increased tremendously in the last two years, it's coming from the asset bubble and injection of subsidy from the US gov.  It's not really an inflation IF your saving increased 5 times and your spending only increased of more few hundred dollar for your BBQ grocery store.

So Fed chairman at least agrees to do one thing : tightening.

What they do not agree is to what level. 

What they agree on:
- they agree the neutral FFR is 2.5%
-with neutral FFR like this, US economy still generally strong, including labour market. But it already caused so much trouble in Europe that lot of funds is going to be out of capital. So this is more like European crisis now rather than US financial crisis. 
-Even with this neutral FFR, the Fed/treasury started to lose money and they don't really do QT fully since the  other country has to relentless sell US Bond (mainly Japan and China) ; this keep yiel rising, as an affect they need to keep injecting liquidity thru buyback of T-Bill and FX swap lines.
- The FX swap line by Suiss bank has reached higher debt than 2008 level. The FX lines are also useful to minimize the impact of increasing bond yield after other country sell more US bonds.  

Most neutral economist outside the Fed camp als has two different opinion, whether today inflation is caused by money supply only or it's just temporary supply chain issue, if it's just temporariy supply chain issue then there's no need to increase rate that much. 

There're lot of things that the Fed doesnot tell us, but lot of other folks smarter than me able to figure out what is their actual plan would be. For example, the Fed already reduced their balanced sheet since June 2021 from RRP operation. Today in October, they seem they no longer reduce asset that much. Market is very near to their end of year SPX fair value of 3400-3500.

Whoppi Goldberg says its corporate greed and greedy landlords that caused inflation.

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

You always got the thing correctly @Michael Wooldridge, which is good.

See here's the difference between inflation in US and inflation in other parts of the world due to financial currency crises like Mexico debt in 1990, South east asian 1998, Argentina's defaults,etc. In those countries, the crisis happened when debt in the dollar is larger while they can't print the dollar and people has static/reduced income.

Inflation in US in 2022 is extremely different. We got into inflation because people's income and saving has increased tremendously in the last two years, it's coming from the asset bubble and injection of subsidy from the US gov.  It's not really an inflation IF your saving increased 5 times and your spending only increased of more few hundred dollar for your BBQ grocery store.

So Fed chairman at least agrees to do one thing : tightening.

What they do not agree is to what level. 

What they agree on:
- they agree the neutral FFR is 2.5%
-with neutral FFR like this, US economy still generally strong, including labour market. But it already caused so much trouble in Europe that lot of funds is going to be out of capital. So this is more like European crisis now rather than US financial crisis. 
-Even with this neutral FFR, the Fed/treasury started to lose money and they don't really do QT fully since the  other country has to relentless sell US Bond (mainly Japan and China) ; this keep yiel rising, as an affect they need to keep injecting liquidity thru buyback of T-Bill and FX swap lines.
- The FX swap line by Suiss bank has reached higher debt than 2008 level. The FX lines are also useful to minimize the impact of increasing bond yield after other country sell more US bonds.  

Most neutral economist outside the Fed camp als has two different opinion, whether today inflation is caused by money supply only or it's just temporary supply chain issue, if it's just temporariy supply chain issue then there's no need to increase rate that much. 

There're lot of things that the Fed doesnot tell us, but lot of other folks smarter than me able to figure out what is their actual plan would be. For example, the Fed already reduced their balanced sheet since June 2021 from RRP operation. Today in October, they seem they no longer reduce asset that much. Market is very near to their end of year SPX fair value of 3400-3500.

Whoppi Goldberg says its corporate greed and greedy landlords that caused inflation.

Doesn't she make $8,000,000 a year to tell us that? 

[Tanner Sherman]

As an extremely biased salesperson, I do not anticipate a crash. In the midwest there is still such a shortage of housing that prices are continuing to increase even though the demand has significantly dropped due to the interest rate increases. We have a 9% year over year drop in supply, but a 12% increase in the average home price since Sept of last year. A correction is healthy, but come Spring time we will see what happens to the market. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Whoppi Goldberg says its corporate greed and greedy landlords that caused inflation.

funded by the Fed and Wall Street LOL

[Carlos Ptriawan]

The drama on Friday...

The U.S, ten-year bond yield (orange) vs. Japan´s yen (blue) — Always, always. Always, always connect the dots. There are no coincidences. The Fed, the White House, the Wall Street Journal, and the Bank of Japan – were all working closely together on Friday morning.

......


The Fed was put on notice from the highest levels – White House officials were knocking on Fed chair Powell´s door this week. They couldn’t get OPEC to help oil prices lower, to support the inflation fight. Now politically – the S&P MUST move higher ahead of the BIG DAY on November 8th. Midterm elections are won and lost in suburbs, where 401Ks are even more important than the price at the pump.

.........

Later in the afternoon – James Brian Bullard – the chief executive officer and 12th president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis came barreling in with further evidence of a coordinated policy path shift. He stressed the Fed should use more caution next year. Bullard is looking for a disinflationary process going into 2023. The slowdown in money growth is a positive factor for inflation. The Fed wanted to cal markets on the eve of their blackout period (which started Friday night, no more Fedspeak) ahead of their Nov. 1-2 policy meeting. This is an extremely dovish sales pitch relative to PREVIOUS – extremely hawkish expectations – “You’ve come off zero. You’ve gone to this much higher level of the policy rate. But once you’re at the right level, then you can just make minor adjustments at that point — maybe to stay where you are, maybe to go a little bit higher, based on incoming data,”

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Obviously trajectory isn’t turning….. 

https://markets.businessinside...

Odds look good some people overestimated the pain. 

 Surprise, surprise, surprise....... 

The economy fart's and a group of people strap on the tinfoil hat's and run in circles screaming this is it, THIS-IS-IT, the end of everything!       We should call it the "Y2K Effect", because it's the same level of loosing one's mind, certainty of total disaster, completely ignoring of any/all actions to address that calamity and smooth it into a speed-bump.       The system will defend it's existence. Always has, always will. Only way one get's a collapse is an event that completely over-whelms the systems capacity to defend and counter-act, and as history has shown that requires a very sudden, instantaneous item. Nothing slow moving has ever crashed the system, ever. 

But I am sure all who were so absolute on the certainty of a "crash" will come on here and revise position to NO-crash.......          Or let me guess, it's just around the corner, again....... 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

You always got the thing correctly @Michael Wooldridge, which is good.

See here's the difference between inflation in US and inflation in other parts of the world due to financial currency crises like Mexico debt in 1990, South east asian 1998, Argentina's defaults,etc. In those countries, the crisis happened when debt in the dollar is larger while they can't print the dollar and people has static/reduced income.

Inflation in US in 2022 is extremely different. We got into inflation because people's income and saving has increased tremendously in the last two years, it's coming from the asset bubble and injection of subsidy from the US gov.  It's not really an inflation IF your saving increased 5 times and your spending only increased of more few hundred dollar for your BBQ grocery store.

So Fed chairman at least agrees to do one thing : tightening.

What they do not agree is to what level. 

What they agree on:
- they agree the neutral FFR is 2.5%
-with neutral FFR like this, US economy still generally strong, including labour market. But it already caused so much trouble in Europe that lot of funds is going to be out of capital. So this is more like European crisis now rather than US financial crisis. 
-Even with this neutral FFR, the Fed/treasury started to lose money and they don't really do QT fully since the  other country has to relentless sell US Bond (mainly Japan and China) ; this keep yiel rising, as an affect they need to keep injecting liquidity thru buyback of T-Bill and FX swap lines.
- The FX swap line by Suiss bank has reached higher debt than 2008 level. The FX lines are also useful to minimize the impact of increasing bond yield after other country sell more US bonds.  

Most neutral economist outside the Fed camp als has two different opinion, whether today inflation is caused by money supply only or it's just temporary supply chain issue, if it's just temporariy supply chain issue then there's no need to increase rate that much. 

There're lot of things that the Fed doesnot tell us, but lot of other folks smarter than me able to figure out what is their actual plan would be. For example, the Fed already reduced their balanced sheet since June 2021 from RRP operation. Today in October, they seem they no longer reduce asset that much. Market is very near to their end of year SPX fair value of 3400-3500.

Whoppi Goldberg says its corporate greed and greedy landlords that caused inflation.

Doesn't she make $8,000,000 a year to tell us that? 

Sounds about right. She sits in her ivory tower looking down on us insisting that she is oppressed. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Tanner Sherman:

As an extremely biased salesperson, I do not anticipate a crash. In the midwest there is still such a shortage of housing that prices are continuing to increase even though the demand has significantly dropped due to the interest rate increases. We have a 9% year over year drop in supply, but a 12% increase in the average home price since Sept of last year. A correction is healthy, but come Spring time we will see what happens to the market. 

Do you consider Texas the midwest?

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Tanner Sherman:

As an extremely biased salesperson, I do not anticipate a crash. In the midwest there is still such a shortage of housing that prices are continuing to increase even though the demand has significantly dropped due to the interest rate increases. We have a 9% year over year drop in supply, but a 12% increase in the average home price since Sept of last year. A correction is healthy, but come Spring time we will see what happens to the market. 

Do you consider Texas the midwest?

 Texas is obviously not the Midwest markets. Frankly the only thing that matters at a national level for median home prices are the coasts, West Coast including a few other key states as Californias spread out  and Texas. 

I can’t imagine anybody thinks any big shift is happening in the real Midwest. They never really got a bit shift up.