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Updated almost 2 years ago, 01/14/2023
Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
@Greg R. If people keep recklessly voting for corrupt Marxists, than it’s probably imminent. It’s clear the “leadership” in this country has a tremendous impact on the market and the last few years have been unprecedented bucking traditional market trends.
Quote from @Account Closed:
@Greg R. If people keep recklessly voting for corrupt Marxists, than it’s probably imminent. It’s clear the “leadership” in this country has a tremendous impact on the market and the last few years have been unprecedented bucking traditional market trends.
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
That's the reason why, even at 2-3 mil houses in bay area, the discount for cash is only 100k , I just look the recently sold listing:
Listing $3,500,000
Sold for $3,388,888 :) LOL They even make a joke on the number :)
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
That's the reason why, even at 2-3 mil houses in bay area, the discount for cash is only 100k , I just look the recently sold listing:
Listing $3,500,000
Sold for $3,388,888 :) LOL They even make a joke on the number :)
That may have been (and likely) is a Chinese buyer requesting 88888 for good luck 😂 and they are going to need it too with that purchase price!
but yes, generally speaking, they do make jokes of the numbers with dart throws. I actually know a realtor who admits this stuff to me too, it’s a running joke.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
If there're more cash buyer then the following statement is true in CA market:
- The one that could buy cash is only the CA buyer that already has a house, basically they are upgrading or downsizing. For them it's nor first time home buying but they just want to expand. But to be able to achieve this, they must have at least approx. 70% equity, so adding additionl 30% is quite possible. Then, to have 60-70% equity is possible only if they purchase in early 2000s. Which means they're 50 something years old.
- If they're young , the other cash buyer is only possible if they work at startup that making lot of money in 2020-2021 boom
- No FTHB this time around, especially
- it's almost imposible for midwest buyer willing to relocate to CA and even buying a house. Except if they have a huge inheritance.
- Most people would not even consider moving, they will stick with their 2.5 mortgages forever in their current home. They will not move to CA.
Basically the CA buyer is only from the CA buyer only, which is very limited in number AND good thing is....while the job availability is super high in CA, there's no more supply of new talent. The texas guy would not want to come here.
This impact of interest rate in employment and mobility is huge in large scale.
I think the issue is the magnitude of a crash as much as whether there's a crash or not. In 2009, there were cheap houses EVERYWHERE. The number of cheap houses changing hands was IMMENSE.
Even if the market crashes now, I can't fathom it will be nearly the same. If prices drop, it will still be on a very small pool of available houses. If people's portfolios go upside down, they won't care as long as they can cashflow it every month. And, since most of us are locked in under 4%, that's a lot of houses that will NOT be hitting the market.
So, even if there is a "crash", it won't be anything like 2009 because:
1. The sheer number of houses will be minuscule in comparison.
2. There are a ton of buyers champing at the bit to get into this "crash". If/as prices drop, the new, lower prices will be met with more and more buyers.
Definitely seeing the prices decline and expect to continue to see that continue, but not holding my breathe on buying $60k houses in Cali again anytime soon...
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
Quote from @Chris John:
I think the issue is the magnitude of a crash as much as whether there's a crash or not. In 2009, there were cheap houses EVERYWHERE. The number of cheap houses changing hands was IMMENSE.
Even if the market crashes now, I can't fathom it will be nearly the same. If prices drop, it will still be on a very small pool of available houses. If people's portfolios go upside down, they won't care as long as they can cashflow it every month. And, since most of us are locked in under 4%, that's a lot of houses that will NOT be hitting the market.
So, even if there is a "crash", it won't be anything like 2009 because:
1. The sheer number of houses will be minuscule in comparison.
2. There are a ton of buyers champing at the bit to get into this "crash". If/as prices drop, the new, lower prices will be met with more and more buyers.
Definitely seeing the prices decline and expect to continue to see that continue, but not holding my breathe on buying $60k houses in Cali again anytime soon...
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
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Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
So all those homes I flipped in those years, all my buyers getting mortgages, exactly how did they pull that off? I did a ton of homes in those years. And so did every other flipper. All our buyers had mortgages. Hell, I had mortgages.
I don't understand the invention of such weird notions as no mortgages between 08-12, that's just not true in any form of fashion. Might as well say the moon stopped rotating around the earth from 08-12, holds as much credibility.
- James Hamling
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
So all those homes I flipped in those years, all my buyers getting mortgages, exactly how did they pull that off? I did a ton of homes in those years. And so did every other flipper. All our buyers had mortgages. Hell, I had mortgages.
I don't understand the invention of such weird notions as no mortgages between 08-12, that's just not true in any form of fashion. Might as well say the moon stopped rotating around the earth from 08-12, holds as much credibility.
James is right on this for once. I bought during this timeframe. And I bought a primary with 3 percent down, with seller concessions and a realtor rebate. I walked away with money at closing in 2012 at 3.75, best deal I’ve ever made. Used all my money to buy rental properties at this time too. I’m thankful for the fed induced welfare housing bubble.
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Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
I was in Real Estate since early 90's. Everyone and i do mean EVERYONE I knew in Real Estate in '08' was only surprised how long the whole ridiculous went on, most of us thought it would fall in '07'. We all saw it a mile away, it was inevitable. All a person had to do was fog a mirror and could get a mortgage for whatever they were ready to BS there way into: "income, oh, yeah, I make aaahhhh let's see, $100k, no, $150k yeah, wait, $175k, yeah, $175k, now can i have that as interest only payments on 3yr reset please, thanks, by, I got to get to my shift at McD's".
Not to mention in developments I was building we solidly saw 30%+ going to non-owner occupied. Mass glut of homes. Only question was when the house of cards would fall not if. We were all just enjoying the ride as long as it lasted.
- James Hamling
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Not to mention in developments I was building we solidly saw 30%+ going to non-owner occupied.
Is this positive or negative James ??? We now know at least at the end of 2021 purchase by owner-occupant was 60% only. what's the difference now?
It's actually very hard to gauge the strength of US households as so many factors there (flipper,institution, and also Fed that has the wrong data).
Btw reading the US economic growth and the long term cycle, it seems the best time to buy a house or stock is when US printed a negative growth.
https://data.worldbank.org/ind... I bet the cycle would be restarted in 2024/2025.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
There need to be exogenous events to happen for the Fed to slow down, several scenarios:
- if suddenly tomorrow the Ukraine conflict stopped and oil settled below production cost ($50), then inflation would be cut by half and Fed can reduce the rate
- or the effect of fed fund rate is very high that the unemployment rising from 2% to 6%
- leakeage somewhere , such a a collapse of institution or country in Europe, then as a result of that the contagion is so dramatic that another too big too fail bank in America has to be rescued (Like Chase/Lehman in 08)
What's funny is, the Europe is facing more extreme pressure due to Russia+Fed decision, while for us we can say it started to affect the real estate sector, gas is more expensive blablabla but we don't feel that much in labour market so far.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
There need to be exogenous events to happen for the Fed to slow down, several scenarios:
- if suddenly tomorrow the Ukraine conflict stopped and oil settled below production cost ($50), then inflation would be cut by half and Fed can reduce the rate
- or the effect of fed fund rate is very high that the unemployment rising from 2% to 6%
- leakeage somewhere , such a a collapse of institution or country in Europe, then as a result of that the contagion is so dramatic that another too big too fail bank in America has to be rescued (Like Chase/Lehman in 08)
What's funny is, the Europe is facing more extreme pressure due to Russia+Fed decision, while for us we can say it started to affect the real estate sector, gas is more expensive blablabla but we don't feel that much in labour market so far.
The scary part is, the only thing fed can really control to lower prices is real estate and car values. So yeah, unless something happens abroad, the further we will fall here. It’s unfortunate that the energy policies are what they are, there’s a zero percent chance there will be a reversal of that policy. Unfortunately, it’s going to mean lower home prices as that is only mechanism to lower inflation the fed can control.
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Harish V.:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
I am a buyer for credit investment now, but not for equity investment as the market can whipsaw anyone.
The only thing you can do is be strong in financials to be able to buy cash/without loans. From 2008 to 2012 no bank will give a loan even to buyers strong enough. 2013 banks changed all of sudden, and so did market.
Lets see how long it takes this time.
#1 Market Trends & Data Contributor
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
The scary part is, the only thing fed can really control to lower prices is real estate and car values. So yeah, unless something happens abroad, the further we will fall here. It’s unfortunate that the energy policies are what they are, there’s a zero percent chance there will be a reversal of that policy. Unfortunately, it’s going to mean lower home prices as that is only mechanism to lower inflation the fed can control.
Their data is fake in 2022. This is so funny because this inflation is not as big as they displayed in the media, but the effect of policy changes would kill the econony of the world, no wonder UN amd IMF is so mad with the Fed.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Doesn’t look like there will be any fed slow down.
The scary part is, the only thing fed can really control to lower prices is real estate and car values. So yeah, unless something happens abroad, the further we will fall here. It’s unfortunate that the energy policies are what they are, there’s a zero percent chance there will be a reversal of that policy. Unfortunately, it’s going to mean lower home prices as that is only mechanism to lower inflation the fed can control.
Their data is fake in 2022. This is so funny because this inflation is not as big as they displayed in the media, but the effect of policy changes would kill the econony of the world, no wonder UN amd IMF is so mad with the Fed.
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#1 Real Estate Agent Contributor
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Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
We literally referenced the mortgages as a "Liar Loan" lol.
- James Hamling
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
We literally referenced the mortgages as a "Liar Loan" lol.
nowadays, the joke is about the HELOC borrower who paid “cash” for a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th home.
new bubble, same burst.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
We literally referenced the mortgages as a "Liar Loan" lol.
nowadays, the joke is about the HELOC borrower who paid “cash” for a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th home.
new bubble, same burst.
The HELOC won't be an issue though, If they are investing they are still making their money (equity) make money, And if there rate is locked they could be in a pretty nice position to be honest with 30 year fixed at 7%
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
We literally referenced the mortgages as a "Liar Loan" lol.
nowadays, the joke is about the HELOC borrower who paid “cash” for a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th home.
new bubble, same burst.
The HELOC won't be an issue though, If they are investing they are still making their money (equity) make money, And if there rate is locked they could be in a pretty nice position to be honest with 30 year fixed at 7%
That is only going to go higher. Even higher income people (a good portion likely with multiple homes), are also barely scraping by.
this is 3 months old data too and strongest jobs market likely in history.
the Fed is quickly peeling back the onion. The first domino has already fallen. There is virtually no liquidity now.
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @Peter Redmond:
The crash is here. Similar to 2008, most, including myself thought it would never happen. Then the home I purchased for $740k, resold for $450k & the condo I paid $250k for resold for $167k. The cheaper it is to borrow money the higher the prices, the more expensive it is to borrow money the lower the prices. We will have a wave of cash buyers, but they always want a cash discount. You will generally see folks offering incentives like free trips & upgrades before the prices reductions.
I don;t know anybody in the industry in 2005-2008 who was surprised by the crash. Whether you were in investor, realtor, or lender, you could see what was happening when they basically stopped verifying income. You could outright lie and the lenders knew it. The crash back then was obvious. Granted Lehman going under made it worse but there were a whole hell of a lot of people who saw it coming.
We literally referenced the mortgages as a "Liar Loan" lol.
nowadays, the joke is about the HELOC borrower who paid “cash” for a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th home.
new bubble, same burst.
The HELOC won't be an issue though, If they are investing they are still making their money (equity) make money, And if there rate is locked they could be in a pretty nice position to be honest with 30 year fixed at 7%
this is 3 months old data too and strongest jobs market likely in history.
the Fed is quickly peeling back the onion. The first domino has already fallen.
Well aware and not a new phenomena: https://www.bloomberg.com/news....
1/3 rd of people making $250k live paycheck to paycheck and to be in $250k you are roughly in top 5% of America.
Not sure why that means they are suddenly going to lose money on their HELOC rental properties they bought with low interest.