Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Tim Hall:

@Greg R. 

And Philly metro will be slow. Philly metro hasn’t grown much last few years even (fishtown and some of those areas). So not surprising. Philly suburbs thought have quite a few active builders with Toll to THP to Pulte. Suburbs are selling quite well 

 Zillow prediction for the next 12 months is out, it's pretty much flat line or 1% growth til Sep 2023 nationwide. This is the most accurate and realistic view that I've seen. Philly is growing like 1% for 2023. 

So no market crash --per Zillow.

If it would be a flat line til Q3 2023 then Opendoor is right,market would re-accelerate from early 2024.

Since when is Zillow the know-all? I must have seen hundreds of examples that have shown Zillow projections to be way off. I need a little more to convince me otherwise - at least in my local area. In different localities, sure. In DWF area & Austin prices are dropping quick. Everything is more expensive than ever (including mortgage rates). 

For me Zillow is the semi-God for real estate statistics. I'm pretty much follow this guy calculation every now and then.

Look, every city would react-differently. The problem with Dallas,Austin,San Jose is all the same : in 2020 2021 2022 , there're are 3 sigma melting up deviation , , so it's prudent to say for a balanced market to happen, all these overbid market has to "revert to the mean" by having price going down 1 or 2 sigma deviation. Back to its long term appreciation growth.

It's not a crash, it's just moving to the long term appreciation line. Like I said San Jose is best example, it melted up $300k without reason within two years and now reduced $100k. 

The problem with Austin and DFW is your median price is $630K. If you follow 7% appreciation like, the fair market value would be around $550k, or price around Q2 2021. Expect to drop 80k, the faster the better, if your market can do it like us here in SJC, things will settle quick LOL

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

Lol, if things stay normal...... Yeah, ok, so exactly how long ago was "normal" again?!    Maybe we need to recap how many NOT "normal" things we have been living through the last few years. 

"Normal" is gone buddy G-O-N-E. "normal" got taken out back the wood-shed and put where the red ferns now grow my friend. 

This is the "NEW normal" which is a constant chain of fu#kery, idiocracy, mob-rule, and just general stupidity, insanity and out right bold faced lies and deceit on level that would make the Devil himself blush.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Greg R.:

A lot of people on this forum just use graphs/charts/rates that some computer kid fresh outta college developed without questioning them. They may or may not have any basis in reality. Most don't. And a move downward this week (perceived) could result in the worst inflation or recession, take your pick, that we have ever seen.
There are zero statistics that mean anything any more. Zero.

Agreed. There are certainly two sets of data. Look at the political clowns (I consider them all clowns). They each have their own sets of data to support their positions - completely differing positions. 

Technically we're already in a recession. 2 quarters of negative GDP growth has been the long accepted indication of a recession. Obviously the politicians in power are going to deny that and try to deflect blame & not accept responsibility. 

In any event, on the ground things are not looking good. Most people are feeling it at the pump, at the grocery store, at restaurants, at retail stores, etc. Everything is way more expensive than it was a short while ago. And the rate of pay increase hasn't come close to covering the gap - not by a long shot. I don't need charts or statistics for that to be true, it simply is. 

The only data I'm looking at right now are interest rates and sold home prices. Rates continue to go up, prices continue to come down, and sellers are having a much harder time selling homes. I see no reason to believe that's going to change anytime soon. Looks like we're going to be in this same inflationary period w/ high rates for an extended period of time. 

We better hope that mass layoffs don't start. So far the job market has been strong, but only time will tell. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Agree with what you say here. 20-30 percent drop I’ve been calling for isn’t a “crash”, I’ve always said we will be back to 2019 prices and everything will be fine (except most buyers in 2021-2022)

my whole point in all of this, is that contrary to realtor 101 “now is not the time to buy” it hasn’t been for a few months. Momentum has shifted and a buyer will not be worse off waiting a year to buy. Very high probability if they wait they will be better off. This is the first time in a decade where this is true, but it is now. 

 If Fed already said 30YRFRM would be 4-5% in 2024 and Opendoor is saying they will make record revenue in 2024 , why do we need to buy now right. Just wait until everything is settled. We don't need to rush. The risk that we face is actually if we see unexpected event to happen like another Lehman moment or China invasion, things like that.... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

5-10 years from now, nobody is going to say “oh I wish I bought when rates went parabolic to 7 percent, missed out on opportunity of a lifetime”…….it will be more like this “I’m glad I waited 12-18 months to let the dust settle from the parabolic rates..I scored a great deal and refinanced a year later and now I’m sitting on massive fed induced equity”  

Btw, 10 year t-bill is over 4.10 percent now today….equity markets going to finally notice?

 I couldn't disagree more strongly. 

For last 2 years I have heard a constant chorus of people saying "oh man, I was waiting for this collapse and stupid me, I SHOULD HAVE JUMPED ON BUYING but I thought things were too hot and I listened to stupid YT's saying it was all gonna crash".      

Because here is the thing; when you go to buy a home to live in it, it's value is priced on comp method right. BUT when it's for business purposes, for investment, it's on a FINANCIAL method. With that, higher rents, higher NOI = HIGHER prices to buy. Did rents go up these last months, heck yeah! And what happened, no people crying about how they can't find any multi-deals right. How everything is "too tight". But if they bought just 18 months ago let's say, when things were scorching hot, they said same thing then BUT that sold price then today = great performance, because rents-went-up.

And guess what this inflation and lower volume does, rents will go UP. Up up up until only incomes caps them. As incomes go up so will those rent caps. 

So yeah, in years to come YES 100% people will say "oh man, I SHOULDA BOUGHT back when" because the cost of entry will keep going up. 

If you think rents going up, vacancy going down, supply going down, equals price of an investment property going down, lol, well I am sorry your just dead flat wrong in an epic manner. 

EVERY DAY is a GREAT day to buy! The only things that change is what, where and how! 

High interest rates, LOVING it! I love love LOVE less competition in my buys, your gonna tease me with being alone in the candy store, come on bro! because I know how to do C4D purchases! "Sure Mr/Mrs seller I'd LOVE to acquire your property at 5.25% lock, thank you!". 

If your stopped dead in your tracks by 1 single little thing in Real Estate, your NOT an investor, your a hobbyist! 

I love buying on C4D almost as much as I love selling on C4D!    Please, feel free to sit the sidelines and leave all the opportunity to me. 

I’m not completely on the sidelines, but I’m speaking more generally for the average buyer of real estate, not necessarily the audience here. I think that’s where realtors, especially ones on here, can be out of touch with the population of people buying real estate. They aren’t getting creative to buy investments. They see a house and buy to live in because that’s what they have been told they need to do (sort of like college and look what happened there), unless you have a strong deal or know what you are doing with an investment then John Doe shouldn’t be buying now. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

EVERY DAY is a GREAT day to buy! The only things that change is what, where and how! 

High interest rates, LOVING it! I love love LOVE less competition in my buys, your gonna tease me with being alone in the candy store, come on bro! because I know how to do C4D purchases! "Sure Mr/Mrs seller I'd LOVE to acquire your property at 5.25% lock, thank you!". 

I wonder if you are a realtor in California (and also investor in CA market only) --whether you will say the same thing LOL

What you said is understandable from Minnesota point of view (high cap rate, 0.34 mortgage income ratio), but the CA market
is totally opposite (ultra low cap, 0.68 mortgage income ratio). 

Maybe I shall move out from CA to follow your way of thinking LOL :) :)

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

Lol, if things stay normal...... Yeah, ok, so exactly how long ago was "normal" again?!    Maybe we need to recap how many NOT "normal" things we have been living through the last few years. 

"Normal" is gone buddy G-O-N-E. "normal" got taken out back the wood-shed and put where the red ferns now grow my friend. 

This is the "NEW normal" which is a constant chain of fu#kery, idiocracy, mob-rule, and just general stupidity, insanity and out right bold faced lies and deceit on level that would make the Devil himself blush.

 Normal is not gone buddy, Our grandpa already said we will move to 2.5% FFR in 2024. This is just temporary inflation. Gosssh :) We need to calm down, let inflation settle and reduce buying European cars :)

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Greg R.:

A lot of people on this forum just use graphs/charts/rates that some computer kid fresh outta college developed without questioning them. They may or may not have any basis in reality. Most don't. And a move downward this week (perceived) could result in the worst inflation or recession, take your pick, that we have ever seen.
There are zero statistics that mean anything any more. Zero.

Agreed. There are certainly two sets of data. Look at the political clowns (I consider them all clowns). They each have their own sets of data to support their positions - completely differing positions. 

Technically we're already in a recession. 2 quarters of negative GDP growth has been the long accepted indication of a recession. Obviously the politicians in power are going to deny that and try to deflect blame & not accept responsibility. 

In any event, on the ground things are not looking good. Most people are feeling it at the pump, at the grocery store, at restaurants, at retail stores, etc. Everything is way more expensive than it was a short while ago. And the rate of pay increase hasn't come close to covering the gap - not by a long shot. I don't need charts or statistics for that to be true, it simply is. 

The only data I'm looking at right now are interest rates and sold home prices. Rates continue to go up, prices continue to come down, and sellers are having a much harder time selling homes. I see no reason to believe that's going to change anytime soon. Looks like we're going to be in this same inflationary period w/ high rates for an extended period of time. 

We better hope that mass layoffs don't start. So far the job market has been strong, but only time will tell. 

 Actually GDP is likely to go up because of the trade balance deficit shrinking. So we might be out of a recession by the "definition". 

BTW I'm not saying we are out of recession but it goes back to that link I provided earlier in this thread that all of our general economic KPIs are so out of wack for a modern world (GDP and trade deficits) that we are literally going to get some positive growth but somehow that means no recession also. I personally would say we are not better economically than we were 3 months ago. 

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

Lol, if things stay normal...... Yeah, ok, so exactly how long ago was "normal" again?!    Maybe we need to recap how many NOT "normal" things we have been living through the last few years. 

"Normal" is gone buddy G-O-N-E. "normal" got taken out back the wood-shed and put where the red ferns now grow my friend. 

This is the "NEW normal" which is a constant chain of fu#kery, idiocracy, mob-rule, and just general stupidity, insanity and out right bold faced lies and deceit on level that would make the Devil himself blush.

 Normal is not gone buddy, Our grandpa already said we will move to 2.5% FFR in 2024. This is just temporary inflation. Gosssh :) We need to calm down, let inflation settle and reduce buying European cars :)

What makes you so confident that things won't change between now and then? that is a lifetime away from now. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

Lol, if things stay normal...... Yeah, ok, so exactly how long ago was "normal" again?!    Maybe we need to recap how many NOT "normal" things we have been living through the last few years. 

"Normal" is gone buddy G-O-N-E. "normal" got taken out back the wood-shed and put where the red ferns now grow my friend. 

This is the "NEW normal" which is a constant chain of fu#kery, idiocracy, mob-rule, and just general stupidity, insanity and out right bold faced lies and deceit on level that would make the Devil himself blush.

 Normal is not gone buddy, Our grandpa already said we will move to 2.5% FFR in 2024. This is just temporary inflation. Gosssh :) We need to calm down, let inflation settle and reduce buying European cars :)

What makes you so confident that things won't change between now and then? that is a lifetime away from now. 

All data is showing we are going to have reduced inflation. Market already priced-in 2-3% CPI within 4 quarters. 

The problem with folks that doesn't have data intellegence is they comparing with current stuffs, while "current condition" is "temporary".

I used to live in 90%hyperinflation mode in the past, even in that condition, after a few years, the thing is stabilizing.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

I’m not completely on the sidelines, but I’m speaking more generally for the average buyer of real estate, not necessarily the audience here. I think that’s where realtors, especially ones on here, can be out of touch with the population of people buying real estate. They aren’t getting creative to buy investments. They see a house and buy to live in because that’s what they have been told they need to do (sort of like college and look what happened there), unless you have a strong deal or know what you are doing with an investment then John Doe shouldn’t be buying now. 

 Yeah, so if we follow what the bank nowadays did is:
- they reduce lending in real estate activity, especially CRE.
- they parked their money for US Gov. bond/treasury for riskless investments.

So we can follow the same until 2023-2024, when Fed pivot, we re-invest in real estate and tech sector again.

The problem with buying real estate now is since it's illiquid , there's another asset class that's riskless and has guaranteed returns.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Agree with what you say here. 20-30 percent drop I’ve been calling for isn’t a “crash”, I’ve always said we will be back to 2019 prices and everything will be fine (except most buyers in 2021-2022)

my whole point in all of this, is that contrary to realtor 101 “now is not the time to buy” it hasn’t been for a few months. Momentum has shifted and a buyer will not be worse off waiting a year to buy. Very high probability if they wait they will be better off. This is the first time in a decade where this is true, but it is now. 

 If Fed already said 30YRFRM would be 4-5% in 2024 and Opendoor is saying they will make record revenue in 2024 , why do we need to buy now right. Just wait until everything is settled. We don't need to rush. The risk that we face is actually if we see unexpected event to happen like another Lehman moment or China invasion, things like that.... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

5-10 years from now, nobody is going to say “oh I wish I bought when rates went parabolic to 7 percent, missed out on opportunity of a lifetime”…….it will be more like this “I’m glad I waited 12-18 months to let the dust settle from the parabolic rates..I scored a great deal and refinanced a year later and now I’m sitting on massive fed induced equity”  

Btw, 10 year t-bill is over 4.10 percent now today….equity markets going to finally notice?

 I couldn't disagree more strongly. 

For last 2 years I have heard a constant chorus of people saying "oh man, I was waiting for this collapse and stupid me, I SHOULD HAVE JUMPED ON BUYING but I thought things were too hot and I listened to stupid YT's saying it was all gonna crash".      

Because here is the thing; when you go to buy a home to live in it, it's value is priced on comp method right. BUT when it's for business purposes, for investment, it's on a FINANCIAL method. With that, higher rents, higher NOI = HIGHER prices to buy. Did rents go up these last months, heck yeah! And what happened, no people crying about how they can't find any multi-deals right. How everything is "too tight". But if they bought just 18 months ago let's say, when things were scorching hot, they said same thing then BUT that sold price then today = great performance, because rents-went-up.

And guess what this inflation and lower volume does, rents will go UP. Up up up until only incomes caps them. As incomes go up so will those rent caps. 

So yeah, in years to come YES 100% people will say "oh man, I SHOULDA BOUGHT back when" because the cost of entry will keep going up. 

If you think rents going up, vacancy going down, supply going down, equals price of an investment property going down, lol, well I am sorry your just dead flat wrong in an epic manner. 

EVERY DAY is a GREAT day to buy! The only things that change is what, where and how! 

High interest rates, LOVING it! I love love LOVE less competition in my buys, your gonna tease me with being alone in the candy store, come on bro! because I know how to do C4D purchases! "Sure Mr/Mrs seller I'd LOVE to acquire your property at 5.25% lock, thank you!". 

If your stopped dead in your tracks by 1 single little thing in Real Estate, your NOT an investor, your a hobbyist! 

I love buying on C4D almost as much as I love selling on C4D!    Please, feel free to sit the sidelines and leave all the opportunity to me. 

I’m not completely on the sidelines, but I’m speaking more generally for the average buyer of real estate, not necessarily the audience here. I think that’s where realtors, especially ones on here, can be out of touch with the population of people buying real estate. They aren’t getting creative to buy investments. They see a house and buy to live in because that’s what they have been told they need to do (sort of like college and look what happened there), unless you have a strong deal or know what you are doing with an investment then John Doe shouldn’t be buying now. 

Using the wrong tool(agent) to complete a task(REI) will always have poor results. It says nothing of the project intended, it's about the poor execution.

People will note I am "the REI Realtor", it's no different then taking kids to a ped. vs a gp, it's about using the right tool for the right job.

If a person uses a "generalist" R.E. Agent, they have to expect that agent to be like the other useless masses of such, where every looks like a nail because there just a hammer. They will promote to buy whatever, just buy, because what there really saying is to just please get them paid a comm.. 

Again, wrong tool for the job. If an agent can't answer the simplest of question on any property which is WHY it's a good buy, then that agent should be fired immediately. Not just for REI but in general.

I have had many clients look to retaining my services for a retail transaction because I do that simplest of actions which is matching there desired goals with the correct property fit. So it's easy when viewing a property to answer why this specific property seems a good fit, because of ___. 

SO this point is more about professional vs a novice. Pick any action, if you hire a novice to do it, no matter the market, results will suck, always. It has nothing to do with market condition. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

EVERY DAY is a GREAT day to buy! The only things that change is what, where and how! 

High interest rates, LOVING it! I love love LOVE less competition in my buys, your gonna tease me with being alone in the candy store, come on bro! because I know how to do C4D purchases! "Sure Mr/Mrs seller I'd LOVE to acquire your property at 5.25% lock, thank you!". 

I wonder if you are a realtor in California (and also investor in CA market only) --whether you will say the same thing LOL

What you said is understandable from Minnesota point of view (high cap rate, 0.34 mortgage income ratio), but the CA market
is totally opposite (ultra low cap, 0.68 mortgage income ratio). 

Maybe I shall move out from CA to follow your way of thinking LOL :) :)

 I did clearly state in the criteria: what WHERE and how.  And for the record, I am not just an agent and active in MN. MN just happens to be my home base. I am involved in R.E. market across 3 continents, in a multitude of states and countries. Not sure why so many just default to thinking where a person physically resides is where they must do everything. Pre-covid I was a Delta Diamond lvl Member. Or Delta was Platinum and United was Diamond, I forget. Point is, don't assume based on home address. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

... but if things stay normal it's prudent to revisit the real estate market in 2023/2024.

Lol, if things stay normal...... Yeah, ok, so exactly how long ago was "normal" again?!    Maybe we need to recap how many NOT "normal" things we have been living through the last few years. 

"Normal" is gone buddy G-O-N-E. "normal" got taken out back the wood-shed and put where the red ferns now grow my friend. 

This is the "NEW normal" which is a constant chain of fu#kery, idiocracy, mob-rule, and just general stupidity, insanity and out right bold faced lies and deceit on level that would make the Devil himself blush.

 Normal is not gone buddy, Our grandpa already said we will move to 2.5% FFR in 2024. This is just temporary inflation. Gosssh :) We need to calm down, let inflation settle and reduce buying European cars :)

Grandpa Joe....... Remember when it was a big deal to spell potato.  Now shaking hands with a Ficus is somehow ok....... 

[James Hamling]

Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths. 

This is a MAJOR shift. It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency. 

 Sure you wanna sit on the dollar now?    No thanks, this presses the immediate NEED to get all leveraged into assets ASAP. Clock is now ticking on this now. 

For those who don't comprehend, when a currency is in threat of being debased, or just going worthless, assets skyrocket and provide the only protection because if USD goes to nothing, assets like housing will hold a value, regardless of the payment means, be it dollars or cows and chickens. BUT having bonds, that say you get repaid in dollars, yeah, NO THANKS. I just dumped all bond positions with this development. 

All it takes is Saudis and then 1 or 2 OPEC and forcing transactions in Ruble and it's done, the USD will be dethroned and over as world reserve. It won't happen gradually or slowly, once it's a real threat of it leaving that placement, ALL will dump it, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The last thing you want is to be into the USD in any way shape or form anywhere when that event starts happening. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths. 

Hell yeah, this is James Bond territory obviously, beyond my pay grade LOL

I bet US diplomatic missions in many countries already visited the Ministerial office, threatening not to buy Russian oil.

Oh btw, Rubble is now pegged to Gold; so my deep suspicion this is pre-planned by Russia is making more sense.

[Account Closed]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths. 

This is a MAJOR shift. It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency. 

 Sure you wanna sit on the dollar now?    No thanks, this presses the immediate NEED to get all leveraged into assets ASAP. Clock is now ticking on this now. 

For those who don't comprehend, when a currency is in threat of being debased, or just going worthless, assets skyrocket and provide the only protection because if USD goes to nothing, assets like housing will hold a value, regardless of the payment means, be it dollars or cows and chickens. BUT having bonds, that say you get repaid in dollars, yeah, NO THANKS. I just dumped all bond positions with this development. 

All it takes is Saudis and then 1 or 2 OPEC and forcing transactions in Ruble and it's done, the USD will be dethroned and over as world reserve. It won't happen gradually or slowly, once it's a real threat of it leaving that placement, ALL will dump it, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The last thing you want is to be into the USD in any way shape or form anywhere when that event starts happening. 

@James Hamling:  Your comment: "It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency."

Yes, it would challenge the USAs world reserve currency position but that's a good thing. 

We have entered wars and started numerous other wars to preserve that status.  We have been profligate with that status. We have amassed debt the world has never seen before because of that status and the arrogance that goes with it. We are in our current precarious position because of that status.  Our grandchildren will still be paying interest on our debt because of that status.

We are oil independent when allowed to be by the administration and have no need for the petro dollar, other than to stick our nose into other people's business.

Housing prices go up and interest rates go down, life becomes more affordable when we lose that status. 

You will own more properties when we lose that status and it will be more profitable for you.

Currently it's like continually hitting your thumb with a hammer and someone asks why are you doing that, with your answer being "because it feels so good when I stop".

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Account Closed:

True. But we are currently not because of the current administration. So that changes everything at least for another 2 years...

[Aaron Gordy]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Tim Hall:

@Greg R. 

And Philly metro will be slow. Philly metro hasn’t grown much last few years even (fishtown and some of those areas). So not surprising. Philly suburbs thought have quite a few active builders with Toll to THP to Pulte. Suburbs are selling quite well 

 Zillow prediction for the next 12 months is out, it's pretty much flat line or 1% growth til Sep 2023 nationwide. This is the most accurate and realistic view that I've seen. Philly is growing like 1% for 2023. 

So no market crash --per Zillow.

If it would be a flat line til Q3 2023 then Opendoor is right,market would re-accelerate from early 2024.

Since when is Zillow the know-all? I must have seen hundreds of examples that have shown Zillow projections to be way off. I need a little more to convince me otherwise - at least in my local area. In different localities, sure. In DWF area & Austin prices are dropping quick. Everything is more expensive than ever (including mortgage rates). 

For me Zillow is the semi-God for real estate statistics. I'm pretty much follow this guy calculation every now and then.

Look, every city would react-differently. The problem with Dallas,Austin,San Jose is all the same : in 2020 2021 2022 , there're are 3 sigma melting up deviation , , so it's prudent to say for a balanced market to happen, all these overbid market has to "revert to the mean" by having price going down 1 or 2 sigma deviation. Back to its long term appreciation growth.

It's not a crash, it's just moving to the long term appreciation line. Like I said San Jose is best example, it melted up $300k without reason within two years and now reduced $100k. 

The problem with Austin and DFW is your median price is $630K. If you follow 7% appreciation like, the fair market value would be around $550k, or price around Q2 2021. Expect to drop 80k, the faster the better, if your market can do it like us here in SJC, things will settle quick LOL

 Ummm Austin is doing fairly well. Don't believe the noise. In the latest stats released yesterday from the Austin Board of Realtors there is still nice appreciation overall with some zip codes such as 78741 increasing at a 22% yoy clip. If one drives in that area one will see all the massive construction trying to keep up with the demand. That is just one example. There are some submarkets that didn't do as comparatively well but its not at all an indication of the overall market. Know your market. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Tim Hall:

@Greg R. 

And Philly metro will be slow. Philly metro hasn’t grown much last few years even (fishtown and some of those areas). So not surprising. Philly suburbs thought have quite a few active builders with Toll to THP to Pulte. Suburbs are selling quite well 

 Zillow prediction for the next 12 months is out, it's pretty much flat line or 1% growth til Sep 2023 nationwide. This is the most accurate and realistic view that I've seen. Philly is growing like 1% for 2023. 

So no market crash --per Zillow.

If it would be a flat line til Q3 2023 then Opendoor is right,market would re-accelerate from early 2024.

Since when is Zillow the know-all? I must have seen hundreds of examples that have shown Zillow projections to be way off. I need a little more to convince me otherwise - at least in my local area. In different localities, sure. In DWF area & Austin prices are dropping quick. Everything is more expensive than ever (including mortgage rates). 

For me Zillow is the semi-God for real estate statistics. I'm pretty much follow this guy calculation every now and then.

Look, every city would react-differently. The problem with Dallas,Austin,San Jose is all the same : in 2020 2021 2022 , there're are 3 sigma melting up deviation , , so it's prudent to say for a balanced market to happen, all these overbid market has to "revert to the mean" by having price going down 1 or 2 sigma deviation. Back to its long term appreciation growth.

It's not a crash, it's just moving to the long term appreciation line. Like I said San Jose is best example, it melted up $300k without reason within two years and now reduced $100k. 

The problem with Austin and DFW is your median price is $630K. If you follow 7% appreciation like, the fair market value would be around $550k, or price around Q2 2021. Expect to drop 80k, the faster the better, if your market can do it like us here in SJC, things will settle quick LOL

 Ummm Austin is doing fairly well. Don't believe the noise. In the latest stats released yesterday from the Austin Board of Realtors there is still nice appreciation overall with some zip codes such as 78741 increasing at a 22% yoy clip. If one drives in that area one will see all the massive construction trying to keep up with the demand. That is just one example. There are some submarkets that didn't do as comparatively well but its not at all an indication of the overall market. Know your market. 

What is month over month? YOY is useless at this point. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Tim Hall:

@Greg R. 

And Philly metro will be slow. Philly metro hasn’t grown much last few years even (fishtown and some of those areas). So not surprising. Philly suburbs thought have quite a few active builders with Toll to THP to Pulte. Suburbs are selling quite well 

 Zillow prediction for the next 12 months is out, it's pretty much flat line or 1% growth til Sep 2023 nationwide. This is the most accurate and realistic view that I've seen. Philly is growing like 1% for 2023. 

So no market crash --per Zillow.

If it would be a flat line til Q3 2023 then Opendoor is right,market would re-accelerate from early 2024.

Since when is Zillow the know-all? I must have seen hundreds of examples that have shown Zillow projections to be way off. I need a little more to convince me otherwise - at least in my local area. In different localities, sure. In DWF area & Austin prices are dropping quick. Everything is more expensive than ever (including mortgage rates). 

For me Zillow is the semi-God for real estate statistics. I'm pretty much follow this guy calculation every now and then.

Look, every city would react-differently. The problem with Dallas,Austin,San Jose is all the same : in 2020 2021 2022 , there're are 3 sigma melting up deviation , , so it's prudent to say for a balanced market to happen, all these overbid market has to "revert to the mean" by having price going down 1 or 2 sigma deviation. Back to its long term appreciation growth.

It's not a crash, it's just moving to the long term appreciation line. Like I said San Jose is best example, it melted up $300k without reason within two years and now reduced $100k. 

The problem with Austin and DFW is your median price is $630K. If you follow 7% appreciation like, the fair market value would be around $550k, or price around Q2 2021. Expect to drop 80k, the faster the better, if your market can do it like us here in SJC, things will settle quick LOL

 Ummm Austin is doing fairly well. Don't believe the noise. In the latest stats released yesterday from the Austin Board of Realtors there is still nice appreciation overall with some zip codes such as 78741 increasing at a 22% yoy clip. If one drives in that area one will see all the massive construction trying to keep up with the demand. That is just one example. There are some submarkets that didn't do as comparatively well but its not at all an indication of the overall market. Know your market. 

What is month over month? YOY is useless at this point. 

78741 may just drop 10-20k (1-2%) and it will reach the normal appreciation line, then flatlines from there as Zillow said.

[Rich Hupper]

I am finding in my area, near Boston the extreme lack of single family inventory and huge abundance of buyers will prevent a major crash. The only thing that could crash this economy is massive job loss. Tech and pharma companies closing up in Boston would send ripple affects into many other markets.

And for the past ten years most loans have been made only to very qualified buyers.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

and tech jobs are actually expanding, pharma especially after covid pharma job is more needed.

[John Carbone]

I think someone said black rock could never be forced to sell anything. Not saying this is a monster amount to them, but if more and more funds do this, they certainly could be.

And this doesn’t help either 

https://www.dailysignal.com/20...

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @John Carbone:

I think someone said black rock could never be forced to sell anything. Not saying this is a monster amount to them, but if more and more funds do this, they certainly could be.

https://www.dailysignal.com/20...

 500 million on 10 trillion…… I mean come on lol 

[Bruce Woodruff]

2 stats I just saw released....not that they mean anything, just throwing more fuel on the fire...

The number of homes sold in September plunged 25% year-over-year to 478,593

The number of new home listings fell 22% compared to last year to 503,156.