Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

I started visiting open house again and yes holy cow. Some market is regressed to Q1 2021 level, this is for middle class family 1950's house. However in other city 30 miles apart, the houses only regressed to Q4 2021 level.

There's this chart, created by Sacramento Appraisal guy that do a good job by plotting the price distribution. It's very clear now that most of the houses are having only -5% price reductions.

This seems like a good market to................. BUY.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Jeremiah Parker:

@Greg R. I think this question is very simple. It will be location dependent. Real estate these days, we have investors buying and selling more and more all over the country vs localized. If you plan to invest, you research different markets, find the most stable local economies and invest. The area I live was not really affected by 2008 and I believe won't be during this cycle either. Large Corp keeps moving in and Jobs keep increasing in our area. Your post seems that you want to mitigate risk so find those communities that are stable.

 Agreed. We're getting to  the close to the end of Q4 of 2022. Anyone want to make some strong opinions about 2023--specific one's-- and wager on it?

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Jeremiah Parker:

@Greg R. I think this question is very simple. It will be location dependent. Real estate these days, we have investors buying and selling more and more all over the country vs localized. If you plan to invest, you research different markets, find the most stable local economies and invest. The area I live was not really affected by 2008 and I believe won't be during this cycle either. Large Corp keeps moving in and Jobs keep increasing in our area. Your post seems that you want to mitigate risk so find those communities that are stable.

 Agreed. We're getting to  the close to the end of Q4 of 2022. Anyone want to make some strong opinions about 2023--specific one's-- and wager on it?

 inflation by Q4 2023: 5%
mortgage rate stays between 5-6%.
slight recovery by Q3 2023

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

The love affair so many on here have with black rock being invincible……seems they are starting to jump on board with the obvious now. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...

And several months ago I said they would have liquidations in their funds (for the exact reason they are happening) and the response was that will never happen more likely to see aliens. 

 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news...

 in the first paragraph it's very clear stated that the investor takes out the money not because of the problem with the real estate fund itself, but because the (asian) investors need money. I guess these are the Japanese investors, they need to redeem high-return US dollar funds because they need dollars after the yen is depleted.

I see this as a strength of US market and Dollar supremacy.

Yeah but that’s the whole point. Real estate is the only profitable sector left so people who need to raise capital…their only options are going to be to sell real estate. So if people are doing this in large funds, surely it will be happening on a more individual level. 

 At a minimum, these new reits and funds which are already being delayed for new funds will not be buying properties in bulk so demand from institution side has already cracked without even factoring in potential sales. And we aren’t even in a recession now. 

 it really depends on the forward-looking OF the interest rate trajectory expectation

we know now in 2025 that INTEREST RATE would be LOWER compare to 2023 for 99.9% certainty,
so between 2023 to 2024, I guess they start buying again and remember there's new institution player in SFR market like JP Morgan and JLL.

When these two kings enter the landlord business I guess we may see second wave of melting up, but yeah, we need to wait for the price to give confirmation, but it seems like a good starts now.

As a person ACTUALLY in the institutional investor segment I can say there is absolutely 0 relent or decline to acquisition and expansion. There is major EXAPNSIONS of institutional investors in the SFR space. You simply don't see it because it's not broadcast to the general public because there is very literally 0 profitable reason to broadcast such.

There is EPIC "Titan" level players coming into this. JP-M is just 1 of those. These organizations are behemoths, and as such things have a process that is similar to the movement of a glacier. It may be slow but it's with such weight and gravity that it carves entire landscapes and is unstoppable. 4-6 months I have no doubt various reporting's will leak out, things can stay under wraps only so long. And once all come to full awareness of the size and scope, there entrenched and in command. 

But hey, keep thinking billionaires are going broke, bang that drum if it makes ya feel good.  

[James Hamling]

Recently some said "the sky is falling! show me data to prove otherwise" and I did. Then they said "but that's national, the sky is falling that just, doesnt show it because, IDK, uhm, aaahh, because i said so, the sky is falling" lol. 

Well, here is some more data for you. Inventory moving up a touch (which it does every year this time), closed sales DOWN 35%! Days on market UP 21%!    And still..... STILL..... median sales price goes UP! Freaking UP!    This is becoming the tale of the Titanium Median Sale Price, holly-cow.    Even I predicted a minor decline in median sale price by this time, in concert with consolidation but apparently I undervalued the power of this inflation cycle and front-loading.     If waiting the sidelines, yes, your going to sorely regret it, AGAIN. Just like the last 24+ months of waiting the sidelines. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Recently some said "the sky is falling! show me data to prove otherwise" and I did. Then they said "but that's national, the sky is falling that just, doesnt show it because, IDK, uhm, aaahh, because i said so, the sky is falling" lol. 

Well, here is some more data for you. Inventory moving up a touch (which it does every year this time), closed sales DOWN 35%! Days on market UP 21%!    And still..... STILL..... median sales price goes UP! Freaking UP!    This is becoming the tale of the Titanium Median Sale Price, holly-cow.    Even I predicted a minor decline in median sale price by this time, in concert with consolidation but apparently I undervalued the power of this inflation cycle and front-loading.     If waiting the sidelines, yes, your going to sorely regret it, AGAIN. Just like the last 24+ months of waiting the sidelines. 

 Seems like a lot of R/E jobs are going to be lost from lower transactions. Once jobs are lost, that’s when the values will drop. 

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Recently some said "the sky is falling! show me data to prove otherwise" and I did. Then they said "but that's national, the sky is falling that just, doesnt show it because, IDK, uhm, aaahh, because i said so, the sky is falling" lol. 

Well, here is some more data for you. Inventory moving up a touch (which it does every year this time), closed sales DOWN 35%! Days on market UP 21%!    And still..... STILL..... median sales price goes UP! Freaking UP!    This is becoming the tale of the Titanium Median Sale Price, holly-cow.    Even I predicted a minor decline in median sale price by this time, in concert with consolidation but apparently I undervalued the power of this inflation cycle and front-loading.     If waiting the sidelines, yes, your going to sorely regret it, AGAIN. Just like the last 24+ months of waiting the sidelines. 

 Seems like a lot of R/E jobs are going to be lost from lower transactions. Once jobs are lost, that’s when the values will drop. 

I think we'll see the lowest turnover of MLS listed homes.

You have a strong hold of the 2021-early 2022 buyers who have no reason to sell their low-rate house. You have a strong hold of buyers before who see comps and will not discount too much because MLS agents use comps to their advantage. You have buyers who see IR and will only bid to discount. The lack of liquidity may cause some skew in pricings too.

[James Hamling]

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

Some are saying of the current drop in volume, how the sky is about to fall. Well, here is the months supply over last 10 years. You will notice we are just about at historic LOW of supply. TODAY. So if this is "so bad" now, when in 2015 wasn't it total apocalypse? 

Days On Market, at a historic LOW! Which is exactly what a net-unit-SHORTAGE market would look like, right? 

Aaah, but you say there is a "flood" of new listing coming on huh..... yeah, not so much, turns out no, there is no flood of listings since rates shot up and ACTUALLY what's happening is exactly what I forecasted, that potential sellers would pull back and NOT sell, that supply will match decline in affordability. Simple prediction because every seller would need to put a new roof over there head, right. 

Oh, but now you say there only selling because sellers MUST be taking huge discounts..... turns out, wrong again! 

And lastly, for those who say "it's coming, it's coming, this is just like before '08" NO, it's not, it's NOTHING like pre-'08' and here is the data to prove it: 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

Some are saying of the current drop in volume, how the sky is about to fall. Well, here is the months supply over last 10 years. You will notice we are just about at historic LOW of supply. TODAY. So if this is "so bad" now, when in 2015 wasn't it total apocalypse? 

Days On Market, at a historic LOW! Which is exactly what a net-unit-SHORTAGE market would look like, right? 

Aaah, but you say there is a "flood" of new listing coming on huh..... yeah, not so much, turns out no, there is no flood of listings since rates shot up and ACTUALLY what's happening is exactly what I forecasted, that potential sellers would pull back and NOT sell, that supply will match decline in affordability. Simple prediction because every seller would need to put a new roof over there head, right. 

Oh, but now you say there only selling because sellers MUST be taking huge discounts..... turns out, wrong again! 

And lastly, for those who say "it's coming, it's coming, this is just like before '08" NO, it's not, it's NOTHING like pre-'08' and here is the data to prove it: 

 See, here is the thing. When you look at the trend lines with blinders of just the last 3 years, yes, it looks like a parabolic growth, something unsustainable. But that is selective data. 

Go out too 2005. When we take a full vision, we see this "lost decade". And when one connects the lines between today, and 2006, all of a sudden everything looks like a NORMAL, incremental, standard rate of appreciation and incline. 

There was a ditch dug in the road, we just infilled that ditch. No, Real Estate is NOT going back into a ditch, there is nothing to dig a new ditch, because that's what it would be, a NEW ditch. Recession means a PAUSE way more then it means digging a ditch. DEPRESSION is ditch digging. 

So an argument of things leaping back 24mnths in pricing is an argument for "depression". 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

What is funny James, if tomorrow's CPI is < 7% then home price going to melt up in Q1 2023. Tomorrow CPI # is so important in such a way that asset inflation is restarted again LOL

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

What is funny James, if tomorrow's CPI is < 7% then home price going to melt up in Q1 2023. Tomorrow CPI # is so important in such a way that asset inflation is restarted again LOL

 I really hope not, but I think your right, my gut is your spot on, and were into a yo-yo economy. 

[Alex Hochberger]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Go out too 2005. When we take a full vision, we see this "lost decade". And when one connects the lines between today, and 2006, all of a sudden everything looks like a NORMAL, incremental, standard rate of appreciation and incline. 

There was a ditch dug in the road, we just infilled that ditch. No, Real Estate is NOT going back into a ditch, there is nothing to dig a new ditch, because that's what it would be, a NEW ditch. Recession means a PAUSE way more then it means digging a ditch. DEPRESSION is ditch digging. 

So an argument of things leaping back 24mnths in pricing is an argument for "depression". 

 Right, markets go up by averages over time, but the actual market looks like a step function: S&P 500 over 90 years: 3 Steep inclines (a 4th that is really part of the flat market) around 3 flat markets. This includes from 1954 - 1983 being flat... Now this is the inflation adjusted line:

Same chart in nominal terms:

Still has three inclines and three flat markets, but it's harder to tell because inflation causes nominal growth. But looks much easier to follow.

Generally, prices go up with inflation in all markets, that's what inflation is. The idea that inflation is going to cause a collapse in nominal housing prices is a bit silly.

Could 2023 have some major swings that break a bunch of investors? Absolutely. But the 2008 collapse is not a "normal" pull back, it's the only collapse outside of the Great Depression. It's also not clear how real it was. A lot of that crash was giving back 2-3 years of gains - gains that were powered by a lot of non-arms length transactions and liar loans. Markets that weren't inflated by fraud didn't collapse. Markets that were inflated by fraud did collapse.7

It was super painful in Miami / South Florida during the collapse, but financial fraud is in our blood.

"This time is different" - this time prices were driven by buyers. Markets may be nominally flat for a few years while inflation catches up with them, but there is unlikely to be a rash of foreclosures that could cause a crash.

BTW: if inflation is 7.5% using the "new CPI" (and 12%-15% in the "old CPI") and prices go up 3%, that's a decrease in real prices. But if you wait out the market, you still lost because your mortgage is in nominal prices.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

What is funny James, if tomorrow's CPI is < 7% then home price going to melt up in Q1 2023. Tomorrow CPI # is so important in such a way that asset inflation is restarted again LOL

 I really hope not, but I think your right, my gut is your spot on, and were into a yo-yo economy. 

 It is 7.1

recession just cancelled 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Alex Hochberger:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Could 2023 have some major swings that break a bunch of investors? Absolutely. But the 2008 collapse is not a "normal" pull back, it's the only collapse outside of the Great Depression. It's also not clear how real it was. A lot of that crash was giving back 2-3 years of gains - gains that were powered by a lot of non-arms length transactions and liar loans. Markets that weren't inflated by fraud didn't collapse. Markets that were inflated by fraud did collapse.7

The very reason why 2008 GFC happened is because home appreciation between 2004-2007 is faster than the money supply growth, thus in 2008, the home price is readjusted following the trend of the money supply.

the very reason why between march 2020 to February 2023 we have massive home price appreciation is because the money supply is being printed too much, it's like money that's supposed to be printed for 3-4 years, is being printed within a few months.

in 2022, the money growth is negative, this is the first time in history thus causing stock market and real estate appreciation going negative.

but we're moving in the right direction with 7.1 CPI today. 

by end of 2023 we will forget about the mess in 2022.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

yeah, there're three components really that create asset price.

price from demand/supply liquidity, inflation, and the third component: money growth.

now is good time to buy house if the discount is large enough. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Alex Hochberger:

Quote from @James Hamling:

 ....if inflation is 7.5% using the "new CPI" (and 12%-15% in the "old CPI") and prices go up 3%, that's a decrease in real prices. But if you wait out the market, you still lost because your mortgage is in nominal prices.

Ah, FINALLY, someone "get's it". Every economic and financial official of every name, shape and kind has only used the word "inflation" about 4,327 times the last months but yet, for some reason, it still seems to not connect to the masses. Inflation is, in simplest terms RE-PRICING. 
Food get's RE-priced, socks get RE-priced, wages, yup, RE-priced and HOUSING also RE-priced. 

Why some have a thought or feeling it will = lower prices in Real Estate is beyond me, we have a few hundred years data on what inflation does and Real Estate has earned the term "#1 Hedge Against Inflation" for a reason. Yet, here we are "Inflation Land" and persons are yelling "what do I do?"........ aaaaahhhh hey, #1 hedge against inflation, that's an idea. 

So yes, 100%, Real Estate prices in whole $ will continue to go UP, because inflation is not yet done. A "flat" real estate market = prices going UP due to this factor, a "flat" price is about 7% INCREASE. Because your dollars are worth less. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

What is funny James, if tomorrow's CPI is < 7% then home price going to melt up in Q1 2023. Tomorrow CPI # is so important in such a way that asset inflation is restarted again LOL

 I really hope not, but I think your right, my gut is your spot on, and were into a yo-yo economy. 

 It is 7.1

recession just cancelled 

 WAIT! But.... But.... Where's my "CRASH"?    

I was promised a minimum 30% drop in national median sale price?!    I was promised a fire-sale of persons begging to take pennies on the dollar?!    I was promised I'd be able to sit the sidelines then come swooping in and pickup properties all over for next to nothing and get a pat on the back for it....... 

Yeah...... I told ya so. I-TOLD-YA-SO. 

And not a 1 will come onto BP and apologize for there totally BS doomsday freak-out, telling everyone to sell everything and wait to buy for pennies on the dollar, and the financial ruin it did to any foolish enough to follow it. 

No, what they will do, still, is say "oh, but, it's coming" and pass you the Kool-aid. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Ok, so some are so obsessed with "doomsday" and completely disregard the DATA I have posted, so here, i will post DATA and put things in CLEAR CONTRAST. 

What is funny James, if tomorrow's CPI is < 7% then home price going to melt up in Q1 2023. Tomorrow CPI # is so important in such a way that asset inflation is restarted again LOL

 I really hope not, but I think your right, my gut is your spot on, and were into a yo-yo economy. 

 It is 7.1

recession just cancelled 

 WAIT! But.... But.... Where's my "CRASH"?    

I was promised a minimum 30% drop in national median sale price?!    I was promised a fire-sale of persons begging to take pennies on the dollar?!    I was promised I'd be able to sit the sidelines then come swooping in and pickup properties all over for next to nothing and get a pat on the back for it....... 

Yeah...... I told ya so. I-TOLD-YA-SO. 

And not a 1 will come onto BP and apologize for there totally BS doomsday freak-out, telling everyone to sell everything and wait to buy for pennies on the dollar, and the financial ruin it did to any foolish enough to follow it. 

No, what they will do, still, is say "oh, but, it's coming" and pass you the Kool-aid. 

You were promised a minimum 20 percent drop by end of 2023. Housing will always be the last leg to drop. I also never said to sell everything and come back and buy. I said hold existing but wait to purchase new holdings. I don’t see how a 7.1 percent inflation print changes anything other than short term interest rate declines. If we are in the same spot after Q1 as we are now, I’ll start to say it may have been overblown, but jobs should be a train wreck Q1 and we know jobs are the only thing that matters in housing with rates following.  

Perhaps everyone here will owe grandpa Jerome an apology for steering the ship correctly?

[Alex Hochberger]

inflation has clearly stopped as the MoM numbers are showing. A few things have happened:

1 US Government stopped excessive stimulus 2 student loan debt cancelation appears dead

3 interest rates rose

the COVID stimulus kicked inflation up to 4%, but the ARP plan set off global waves up to 9% because the massive USD inflation triggered oil price run up (oil is priced in USD), which funded a land war in Europe. Student loan forgiveness threatens to add another half trillion dollars or more into an overheating economy.

I’m not sure how much interest rates changed vs stopping fiscal insanity, but the fed is managing to get interest rates to a healthier nominal point

Inflation plus interest rates have sucked most of American’s COVID savings into bank profits, which might be immoral, but ends the inflationary spiral.

The main problem right now is Powell wants wage growth to slow so he’s going to hack rates more. Given the fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, there is no justification for his war on working people, but he has a Presidential appointment and I do not.

Either way this seems like a great time for LTR landlords. We are in a correction but a small nominal decrease In an inflationary environment will not reward people sitting on devalued cash. Most markets will be flat in nominal terms, up or down a few points.

California has a depopulation issue in several markets, that will drive down demand.

 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Alex Hochberger:

inflation has clearly stopped as the MoM numbers are showing. A few things have happened:

1 US Government stopped excessive stimulus 2 student loan debt cancelation appears dead

3 interest rates rose

the COVID stimulus kicked inflation up to 4%, but the ARP plan set off global waves up to 9% because the massive USD inflation triggered oil price run up (oil is priced in USD), which funded a land war in Europe. Student loan forgiveness threatens to add another half trillion dollars or more into an overheating economy.

I’m not sure how much interest rates changed vs stopping fiscal insanity, but the fed is managing to get interest rates to a healthier nominal point

Inflation plus interest rates have sucked most of American’s COVID savings into bank profits, which might be immoral, but ends the inflationary spiral.

The main problem right now is Powell wants wage growth to slow so he’s going to hack rates more. Given the fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, there is no justification for his war on working people, but he has a Presidential appointment and I do not.

Either way this seems like a great time for LTR landlords. We are in a correction but a small nominal decrease In an inflationary environment will not reward people sitting on devalued cash. Most markets will be flat in nominal terms, up or down a few points.

California has a depopulation issue in several markets, that will drive down demand.

 

 California has to wake up to fact that it's been in a "California Bubble". 

Give it 10 yrs, it will probably become an obvious look-back, but today, in the last hours of the party, lot's of denial because it's a hard pill to swallow for many. 

[John Carbone]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Alex Hochberger:

inflation has clearly stopped as the MoM numbers are showing. A few things have happened:

1 US Government stopped excessive stimulus 2 student loan debt cancelation appears dead

3 interest rates rose

the COVID stimulus kicked inflation up to 4%, but the ARP plan set off global waves up to 9% because the massive USD inflation triggered oil price run up (oil is priced in USD), which funded a land war in Europe. Student loan forgiveness threatens to add another half trillion dollars or more into an overheating economy.

I’m not sure how much interest rates changed vs stopping fiscal insanity, but the fed is managing to get interest rates to a healthier nominal point

Inflation plus interest rates have sucked most of American’s COVID savings into bank profits, which might be immoral, but ends the inflationary spiral.

The main problem right now is Powell wants wage growth to slow so he’s going to hack rates more. Given the fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, there is no justification for his war on working people, but he has a Presidential appointment and I do not.

Either way this seems like a great time for LTR landlords. We are in a correction but a small nominal decrease In an inflationary environment will not reward people sitting on devalued cash. Most markets will be flat in nominal terms, up or down a few points.

California has a depopulation issue in several markets, that will drive down demand.

 

 California has to wake up to fact that it's been in a "California Bubble". 

Give it 10 yrs, it will probably become an obvious look-back, but today, in the last hours of the party, lot's of denial because it's a hard pill to swallow for many. 

California definitely is in a bubble of it’s own.  I’m curious was the median home value is in the USA excluding the state of California. Shacks across from a tent city sell for 1.5-2m and I’d honestly rather pull up an RV and park it in the driveway and the inside would be better (this actually happens in Silicon Valley) 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Alex Hochberger:

inflation has clearly stopped as the MoM numbers are showing. A few things have happened:

1 US Government stopped excessive stimulus 2 student loan debt cancelation appears dead

3 interest rates rose

the COVID stimulus kicked inflation up to 4%, but the ARP plan set off global waves up to 9% because the massive USD inflation triggered oil price run up (oil is priced in USD), which funded a land war in Europe. Student loan forgiveness threatens to add another half trillion dollars or more into an overheating economy.

I’m not sure how much interest rates changed vs stopping fiscal insanity, but the fed is managing to get interest rates to a healthier nominal point

Inflation plus interest rates have sucked most of American’s COVID savings into bank profits, which might be immoral, but ends the inflationary spiral.

The main problem right now is Powell wants wage growth to slow so he’s going to hack rates more. Given the fed’s dual mandate of full employment and stable prices, there is no justification for his war on working people, but he has a Presidential appointment and I do not.

Either way this seems like a great time for LTR landlords. We are in a correction but a small nominal decrease In an inflationary environment will not reward people sitting on devalued cash. Most markets will be flat in nominal terms, up or down a few points.

California has a depopulation issue in several markets, that will drive down demand.

 

 California has to wake up to fact that it's been in a "California Bubble". 

Give it 10 yrs, it will probably become an obvious look-back, but today, in the last hours of the party, lot's of denial because it's a hard pill to swallow for many. 

 And whadya-know, not even a day goes by and https://www.yahoo.com/news/lon... another major press and step for succession in CA. 

It's gonna happen, CA will split, 100%. N CA produces vast majority of revenues, S CA consumes vast majority of those revenues. Similar relationship in natural resources like water, on and on. It's an inevitability with decline, to sever the S CA "lead-boots" and let "New Tijuana" drowned on it's own. 

[Aaron Beal]

Great Question

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Elon Musk says this beautifully :

- we engineer that makes the most profit for the country, didn't care about politics --at all
- but the politician in this state is making looks like the state is great because of them
- thus the engineer becomes the hostage of the politician
- unless we can all move to texas :) LOL  

it's not politician that makes n. California makes ton of money, it is the engineer, but we don't like the politician that rules this state.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @James Hamling:

few home prices already going down a lot no need to stay in RV, I see some houses have reached the 2018 level. Not all, but some. It's "dirt cheap" now for the area standard.