Help! Trying to guess how much to OFFER??

[Steve Candor]

Already has offers. 

Asking $63,000. 1 tenant pays $475. 2nd tenant vacant.

Rents in the area go for about 850. I will have difficulty kicking tenant 1 out. 6 months.

Needs cosmetic work and new roof (water damage). damage could be between $5k-$30k? not sure the extent of the water damage. 

How much do I offer? What would be overpaying? A very similar property sold 6 months ago for $82,000 but included a new roof and gas boiler. $28 a square foot (the place was bigger).  Everything else similar is $80-120k in this area.

[Hattie Dizmond]

@Steve Candor 

I'm sorry for being incredibly blunt, but are you crazy? Is that the only information you have? You don't have a solid ARV, because a spread that represents 2/3 of the current asking price can't possibly be considered solid. You have a $25k spread in what the repairs could be. And, you don't know what the current terms of the lease for the tenant that is in place are, who is currently paying 50% of market rent. You also haven't indicated what the annual taxes are on the property, what your vacancy factor would be, what your plan for PM is, or what your monthly maintenance & CapEx allowance would be.

Given the lack of information you have, how can you make any offer?  Offers aren't based upon guesses or at least they shouldn't be.  Offers need to be based upon data.  There are calculators available right here on BP.  All you have to do is fill in the blanks, but you have to do the work to get the data.