Market Profile Eastern North Carolina

[Stephen E.]

I am looking for a the market profile, average rents to include increases and decreases, and major changes to the areas. The areas I am looking at are Greenville, Jacksonville, New Bern, Morehead City, and Havelock.

I am trying to conduct research into all of theses areas because I want to be well informed before I make a huge purchase and to see what is any change are coming to those perspective areas. Thank you.

[Chris Martin]

I agree with @Christopher K.. There is enough information available to piece together the data to see if an area offers an opportunity worth pursuing. So, how I go about doing primary research on a NC county or regional basis. On a regional and city (like Greenville, NC (GNC)) basis I look at population growth, housing stock age, new inventory (new permits and type) in the next 12 months, job sector (by industry) trends and risks, among other things... and on the parcel level there are another 15 or so attributes that come into the equation. Having all the county property cards helps a lot in the analysis, but requires a sizeable time commitment and some programming skills (unless you can spec and outsource it effectively).

But there are so many plays with real estate. Some companies focus only on university markets. REITS like American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC) and Campus Crest Communities, Inc. (NYSE: CCG) are players in this space. I don't play there so I have no clue if they operate in GNC. If you are into SFR in this market, then you could track different metrics like overall housing stock age, owner occupancy by area/street/subdivision, TAM (Total Available Market) based on your target profile (buying 'new'?, or less than X year old property), etc. I'm looking at the small apartment space, so my analysis covers some other data. I'm also looking at conversions which is off everyone's radar as far as I can tell.

At the end of the day, GNC is (rough numbers) a 1% annual growth town comprised of mostly natural population increase. The place isn't big enough for the Big Business Journals to cover. (the people who publish the Triangle Business Journal, the Triad Business Journal, and the Charlotte Business Journal) haven't expanded their 43 markets to cover Greenville NC, and I'm pretty damn sure that Greenville SC will be covered before Greenville NC (so don't hold your breath;)

The questions become 'why Greenville vs. Kinston vs. Goldsboro vs. Jacksonville NC?' Apartment brokers have done this leg work for completed sales over the last 18 months, and they are good sources for information. Their offering circulars can augment your own primary research. Their conclusions should be consistent with yours. But keep in mind, their number and presentation may not reflect your findings because they are in business to promote their sale.