All Forum Posts by: Chris Martin

This post is just to clarify my (and other) prior posts. 

The Newsweek story (link above) based its facts on RedFin data, specifically for the DC market in January when most of the government RIF news was speculation. The dailymail story (link above) referenced the "Kobeissi Letter" on X, which literally cut/pasted from the same RedFin data. The RedFin data shows a lot less "closed sales" (458) compared to Russell's info graphic (939.) The discrepancy probably is related to county vs. city metrics, and that may or may not be significant. Given that I believe Russell is (IMHO) the recognized authority in the DC area, I tend to believe his data over RedFin. Note that RedFin shows Y/Y January 2025 price declines of 9.71% for all housing but increases of 2.8% in single-family homes. RedFin shows -7.5% Y/Y for townhouses and -11.3% Y/Y for condos, both of which have much smaller transaction values and therefore, IMHO, make the 2.2% January 2025 (overall) price increase in Russell's info graphic more plausible. 

My brother was a White House PIF under the first trump administration. He owned property in San Jose but in DC he rented for 3+ years. Most administration officials rent when they move to DC because they know they may be there for 4-years or a lot less. Possibly just one (or a few) Scaramucci.  Ha. It happens (more frequently with trump) 

DC is a land for renters, specifically geared for an influx of administration appointees and staff. So the premise "prices are dropping rather substantially in Washington D.C. related to layoffs." lacks merit in my 'blink' (think the book 'blink' - I am old) moment. See chart below. 

My guess is upon big terminations is there will be a lot of leases terminating early (?) and the only question in my mind is if the landlords will be able to re-rent quickly or if there will be some kind of a 'black swan' event when rentals in DC become completely unaffordable/unattractive. My guess: unlikely. DC is always in demand. Until democracy and the US collapses, DC housing will stay in demand. 

Note: I am an outsider with no investment in DC and no doge in the fight;) 

Not necessarily. I've done (and others have too) seller financing where little or no cash is involved at closing. I've also assumed VA loans where little cash was used (seller had low/no equity). Basically, the seller signs the deed and walks away.

Probably better to post in the Buying & Selling Real Estate Forum.

Without details, hard to answer the question. Post with more detail, in the above forum, and hopefully you'll get some rational responses. 

Advice? Buy if the numbers work. There are always opportunities in buying real estate, businesses, companies, etc., as long as you know (or think you know) what you are in for. There are risks too, when buying condemned and burned-out houses because you may not be able to control the environment where these properties exist. Weigh the pros and cons. Good luck. 

The short answer is 'no.' If you are buying from HUD, you will be contractually obligated to occupy the home for 12 months. These policies have been in place for decades. Here are some details, from a non-HUD site and from HUD. 

Government property sales, for the moment at least, distinguish between OO (Owner Occupant) and NOO (NON-Owner Occupant). President Musk may change this at any time.

Maybe. It depends where you are. The industry is quite fractured and developers are mostly regional. There are exceptions for very large projects where national players like MasTec (who bought IEA, one of the largest solar and wind installers in the US), exist. I suggest you start with developers in your local area (your county and neighboring counties level) because they would be your most likely partner or parcel buyer. 

Wow! The fastest I've seen personally is a few days, with a reinsurance policy through Metro Title (they were on Glenwood Ave in Raleigh, but I think they moved.) The deal was a long time ago and it was a quick-close, pre-foreclosure, all cash deal. The paralegal was good at interfacing with title and trustee companies. For those properties with HOAs, the HOA was usually the PITA.

@Barre Gambling I am curious... in your opinion, is our area in central NC underserved outside of the Raleigh-Cary-Durham MSAs? Specifically, where are the opportunities and how do you spot them? In rural areas where I am, like northern Johnston County or northern Harnett County, I don't think there are many laundromats relative to the population. What are the metrics for determining site selection? In the self storage market, they have ratios based on population to determine demand. Does the same metric hold true for laundromats?

I largely agree with @Ron S. The 'go-to' place for a trustee state like NC is 1) the county courthouse, and 2) the trustee's web sites. Trustees like Brock and Scott provide details on their open cases and the upset bid status. 10-15 years ago, they had 10X the foreclosure cases. For BP readers in NC (or other trustee states), get to know the trustees that operate in your county of choice, then periodically look for upcoming sales. If you go gung-ho, follow substitute trustee (S-TR or equivalent) filings in your county. 

Anecdotally, from searching Wake County (WC) NC records, defaults remain at near all-time lows, and I see this market (foreclosure/pre-foreclosure) as an opportunity not worth pursuing. There have been roughly 50 S-TR filings per month for 2H2024, relatively unchanged for 18 months at least.  

The only thing interesting in 2024 WC defaults is the vintage year, which is over 35% 2021-2022, meaning a lot of recent borrowers threw in the towel in short order (no pun intended). The number of defaults is too small to worry about, at least today. We need a significant retail price correction as a catalyst to change that, in WC at least.