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Updated about 6 years ago,
How much of the education is true for an extreme CA market?
BP members,
I live in the Bay Area (BA). I started my RE education journey few months back with BP books/webinars/pod casts, then also onto other RE books and materials. They all make sense: BRRRR it, add value, sell or rent it, repeat. However, when I start looking for properties to apply that education, I found that my area is nothing like any market that my education says and that makes me hesistant. For example:
- One percent rule of thumb? Maybe even 2%? Perhaps they only exist in $75k - $200 price range, which is the price range of most BP materials use as examples, real life or not. In the BA, the rent income increase just seems to not catch up with the RE price increase: they don't rise hand-in-hand enough.
- Because of that gap, CF properties in the BA is very tough to find or perhaps non-existent in today's market. MF properties may help to bridge that gap, but even then it's still tough. MF properties also carry a much higher price point barrier to entry.
- So if rules of thumb don't apply to the BA market, then I start to wonder what else? How about the cash-flow strategy itself? Is it entirely not applicable, and one should learn a whole new appreciation-based strategy? Flip strategy? All these "$300 per door,", "cash flow is king," "cash-loss strategy is not investment but speculation" learnings that I picked up are starting to show cracks in my head.
- I haven't been a landlord at all, but in the BA, I'm guessing that the current vacancy rate is exponentially lower than most of the country. Yet, the improvement+rehab cost and cap ex is probably one of the highest in the country. How do RE investors calculate and estimate their profitability for things they buy? Part of me feels that my BP education teaches me how to build wealth on earth, but I am on Mars.
- CA is also not very landlord-friendly. Lawsuits, tenant protection, rent control areas, etc. Doing landlording here may be a different business beast.
Of course, I can play my game in remote RE investing. Once I get out to maybe the central valley (Livermore, Tracy, etc.), things are more "normal." But something feels funny: is that what BA people who want to start do? How much does the principles of what Brandon preaches need to be bent/tweaked in this extreme RE market? Or, the principles don't change, one just need a starting chip count of $2MM to be at the table?
This isn't meant to be a post to question the valuable lessons I learned from my education. In fact, my education opened my eyes - a lot, and I love learning. Rather, I am lost in between my nearby reality and what "the way" that my education is showing me.