How accurate is Airdna?

[Bryan Keller]

I know it's been asked a million times but I need your opinions .

I'm in North Palm Beach, I put an offer on a gorgeous house with 3 beds and 1 bath with a pool. The owner claims it pulls 9k a month during the season. I live in the area so that sounds about right.

However, the property is already on Airbnb and when I looked at the statistics i found the exact home! it said that it pulled 40k a year 42% occupancy which is not good for my numbers... I’m very concerned because my offer was accepted…

A different website says this address should bring 80k a year and 62% occupation .

Im trying to do the enemy method but it's low season in Florida and most of the properties are vacant right now.

Should I ask the owner for proof of income?

Should I pull out of the offer? 

[Michael Baum]

It's super accurate.

[Michael Baum]

It isn't accurate at all.

[Michael Baum]

Now that we got that out of the way...

If you are interested, I have a place there for sale that pulls in about 2m a month...trust me!

Just kidding of course.

Get his financials. If he is unwilling to give them, get out.

AirDNA and others are just algorithms. They can be more or less accurate depending on the data they are pulling in.

I have actual financials on a place we are looking at. AirDNA estimates about 15k higher than actual. Awning.com has it 12k under actual.

[Jesse Turner]

The main problem I've seen with AirDNA is that it presents projections very confidently without telling you what it's omitting. If you don't see an important factor (like walkability to main attraction, last interior remodel year, lot size, or any basic amenities for that matter) then know that AirDNA is not and can not take it into consideration when it spits out it's projected revenue figure.

There are some filters for identifying "economy", "midscale", "upscale", etc. (pictured below), but after applying these, you'll still want to manually review each comp and determine how close the "finishes" (flooring, appliances, aesthetic, door handle...) are to your target property.

And THEN, you'll still want to consider if whoever is managing/hosting the listing could compete with (or beat) the listing quality of your best comps. These are some of the variables that are top of mind for me as I'm spinning up a new, never listed STR in the Midwest right now. It has no good comps, so my target yearly revenue number is more like a challenge to me and my listing and service quality.

[John Underwood]

Yes ask owner for proof of his numbers.

[Bryan Keller]

Will do that. No numbers I’ll back out. Thanks guys!

[Brooklyn McCarty]

TLDR, 

also use multiple data sources and average them together 

[Andrew Steffens]

It can be accurate, or if can not.  I liken it to Zestimate's for value from Zillow.

Definitely ask for the proof of numbers.  I have a property that does $200k a year and for some reason AirDNA has it at $99k.  No idea why.

[Zach Edelman]

What I have found is that it is heavily dependent on the number of comps in the market you are looking for. The more data, the more accurate typically. Additionally, we as a lender have tracked the performance of STRs in which we lent using Air DNA projections to qualify the loan, and we actually have found that in most cases, it has been pretty spot on. My only qualm though I will say about Air DNA is that it doesn't take into account amenities. 

[Joseph Kirton]

Make sure you understand airdna adr and revenue is gross payout, including cleaning fee. On a pro forma factor cleanings as expense not income. 

[Taylor Cartledge]

I will say that AirDNA is very dependent on the area. For instance, I am in the Augusta, GA market and we have the annual Masters golf tournament. Many of the homeowners in our city will rent out their homes for this week alone but they keep their listing on Airbnb at the inflated price ($1,000+/night). AirDNA doesn't know how to filter these inflated prices out so I will frequently see a projection for $200,000 annually when I know that it is more along the lines of $45,000. Just make sure to do some extra due diligence and don't take its projected revenue at face value.

[Taylor Cartledge]