STR analysis - Mammoth Lakes

[Timothy Hogan]

Hi all-

Crunching numbers on a STR Mammoth Lakes, CA. Posting a similar thread to the Gatlinburg thread by @Amit Sharma.

Backstory:

This would be my second door, but first in the Mammoth market. 
I currently run a 1br in Ojai, CA with nearly 300+ 5* reviews and 2022 gross of $76k.
I have systems in place and have a good handle on remotely managing an str. 
Mammoth is a hot market (despite, or maybe because of all the snow... lol). Lots of competition. 

About the unit:

1br plus loft, will sleep 6.
Needs some updating, but that is one of my specialties. 
Appraisal came in at $522k - UNDER accepted offer, which is an entirely other thread.

Competitive analysis for 2br units in my adjacent area. Removed the ones with zero rentals etc:

Avg nightly rate: $235
Avg occupancy: 54%
Avg gross rev: $47k
Top performers are upwards of 85% occupancy and $86k gross - and I've stayed in the top grossing unit. It was nothing special. 

STR analysis from Avery Carl attached. 60k ($13k higher than average) seems to be my break even with the current interest rate. Note - cleaning fees in the calculator max out at $300 total monthly, so I'd expect an additional cost here. (I believe it's a bug in the calculator @Avery Carl.)

Q: Assuming seller will agree to reduce price to appraisal value , am I crazy to think I can beat the averages on occupancy?
Q: Historically, does anyone have data for inventory in ski towns? Better to buy in summer or winter? I've heard anecdotal evidence that suggests inventory is higher in summer, however interest rates will likely be higher then too!

Any input would be appreciated!

[Joe Hannigan]

I'm here in mammoth with an STR that I've operated for 3 years… 500sqft studio loft 2bath. During COVID I was probably 95%. In the last 12 months occupancy has since leveled off, $7 a gallon gas prices didn't help us here in town. I'm more or less around 75% (Oct & Nov slowest)now with 45k in gross rev. It's sounds like you're familiar with the area but I'll give you (and other investors) the run down anyway …Summer time is better than winter, assuming no forest fires/smoke. During ski season the majority of people are here for the weekend and are limited to just the MMSA whereas during the summer everyone is on vacation (European travels too) with lots to do (golf, hiking, fishing, music festivals, Yosemite,etc). The camping/glamping had taken a bite out of the hospitality industry but they clamped down on off site camping this past summer so that helped. Another thing to consider is Mammoths expansion…Mammoth has broken ground on a giant new hotel and 3 additional hotels (300+ doors per hotel) are scheduled to start in the next 12 months. Mammoth Mountain is also scheduled to build an entire new village and multiple hotels at main lodge. This monumental winter might affect all of that, including summer occupancy since hiking and such will probably be limited with all the remaining snow… another key issue for your analysis is cleaning fees and cleaner availability. The majority of cleaning services are maxed out and not taking new clients due to lack of staffing. I had to beg my friend to take me on as a client. I pay $150 a clean and that's "locals price" hook up. During the winter months I have a lot of turns and payout somewhere between $1k-1,500 per month . Granted that expense is passed throught but can be a deterrent for customers. The biggest Xfactor in anything mammoth is mammoth itself. Reliable property managers and contractors are very very rare (I did my upgrades and cleaning for the first 18 months).Then there's the weather. We are on the cusp of an historic winter with another 3-5 feet coming this week. Because of this winter and the storms mainly hitting on the weekends my cancelations have been through the roof, more so then during COVID. A nightmare is an understatement. I've even had to clean the unit since cleaners were unable to get there during the storms. Guests have also been stuck and unable to check-out .
-Can you beat the avg ? Some years yes , so years no. That location matters for this.
-Best time to buy: crap shoot. Everyone sells in summer so more inventory but more competition. Rates might change that this summer
-Should you buy? Absolutely. It’s Real estate in California and in a destination town. There is never enough housing here. Whether it’s str or ltr you will break even at worst case scenario (not factoring in appreciation). Some months /years you will kill it a make money hand over fist . Others , break even. Knock on wood I’ve never lost money , even during COVID shut down.
Personally I’ll be kicking the tires this summer. I’m anticipating a lot of people will be “over it” between cancellations, rising expenses, unreliable managers & cleaners, and the simple fact that people are probably overextended

best 
-Joe