Hi all-
Crunching numbers on a STR Mammoth Lakes, CA. Posting a similar thread to the Gatlinburg thread by @Amit Sharma.
Backstory:
This would be my second door, but first in the Mammoth market.
I currently run a 1br in Ojai, CA with nearly 300+ 5* reviews and 2022 gross of $76k.
I have systems in place and have a good handle on remotely managing an str.
Mammoth is a hot market (despite, or maybe because of all the snow... lol). Lots of competition.
About the unit:
1br plus loft, will sleep 6.
Needs some updating, but that is one of my specialties.
Appraisal came in at $522k - UNDER accepted offer, which is an entirely other thread.
Competitive analysis for 2br units in my adjacent area. Removed the ones with zero rentals etc:
Avg nightly rate: $235
Avg occupancy: 54%
Avg gross rev: $47k
Top performers are upwards of 85% occupancy and $86k gross - and I've stayed in the top grossing unit. It was nothing special.
STR analysis from Avery Carl attached. 60k ($13k higher than average) seems to be my break even with the current interest rate. Note - cleaning fees in the calculator max out at $300 total monthly, so I'd expect an additional cost here. (I believe it's a bug in the calculator @Avery Carl.)
Q: Assuming seller will agree to reduce price to appraisal value , am I crazy to think I can beat the averages on occupancy?
Q: Historically, does anyone have data for inventory in ski towns? Better to buy in summer or winter? I've heard anecdotal evidence that suggests inventory is higher in summer, however interest rates will likely be higher then too!
Any input would be appreciated!