Are Gatlinburg, TN current prices already spelling negative cashflows for New buyers?

[Amit Sharma]

Hello Group. I am in the beginning phase of my journey towards 1st listing. So every variable, and every unknown is an uncertainty that I need to flip into a confirmed piece of information as I move forward. Request you all for your kind inputs and assessment for the income / expense sheet below. 

This is for Market : Gatlinburg. 

Price 450,000 ( Yes, very conservative)

Interest rate 6.5%

Avg Nightly Rate $180

Avg annual Occupancy rate - 63%

Going with a property Manager commission of 20%

I landed up with -ive cashflow. 

Questions for y'all.
1. Are these numbers close to accurate ( ball park of real life operations)? Does that mean current market doesn't allow a 450K property to have a +ive Cashflow?
2. Is the first property usually a low(or -ive) cashflow investment, where one builds equity to hopefully scale into a 2nd property with a net +ive cashflow?
3. The current listings on zillow for 2B2Ba are almost always more expensive than 450K. Should one wait out this year for price corrections to kick in?
4. What's the experience for any new buyers in 2023 at the current prices when they calculate their cashflow?
5. Any folks here who tried buying land, and built cabins there incrementally over a period of time ending in say 2..4 cabins on a lot?

Really appreciate your time & inputs to help me.