A lot of empty calendars in the Joshua Tree/YV region this winter

[Jon Martin]

Doing an enemy analysis and wow . .. . Does not look good for hosts. Initial search is centered on Yucca Valley to encompass everything from YV and north to Landers and east to Joshua Tree. For a short notice booking for this weekend there are over 400 options. At monthly increments pushing out the number of options practically double each time! I have to really zoom in to specific areas to get the numbers reasonable and even then there are lots of choices. 

These are not slouch listings either. Many of the homes look great, high ratings, professional design & photos with attractive "models" having fun in them, some have pools, etc and the calendars are barely booked out. 

Am I looking too soon? Even if I am, I feel like October should at least have some shoulder season action. I saved some links for comps that are similar to what I could realistically do if I were to invest and I will be checking them every few weeks throughout the winter. Will be looking at a few other winter markets that I like in the same fashion, and as of now those markets are looking a lot more attractive! Curious to hear what others are thinking . . . . 

[Ryan Moyer]

This definitely seems like a prime market for the bullwhip effect that we are seeing in a lot of STR areas right now, but especially ones like this.

A market that traditionally has mediocre demand, suddenly has MASSIVE demand as everyone's travel is essentially forced into it.  Then supply in terms of both number of properties available and quality of properties/hosts comes in to meet that demand.  Then demand starts returning to more normal levels for the area (still elevated from the 2019 demand, but nowhere near 2021) and we're left with a huge supply/demand imbalance.