New York Recession & Job Losses Coming!?... Scary Chart Says YES!

[J. Martin]

The last 6 months of leading indicators spell bad news historically for the state of New York!!! Of course no one knows what will happen, and neither do I claim to. But damn!!! Look at those lines! Eerie..

The leading index is prepared for each state by the Philly Federal Reserve and uses payrolls, employee hours, earnings, housing starts, yield curve, etc to predict changes in economic growth. For the last 3 recessions over 25 years, every time the leading index has gone negative at the end of the boom, there has been a recession within a year and half, or we were already in one. Look at how well the leading index predicts jobs growth and losses historically - how it always bottoms out before job losses, and what tends to happens to jobs after steep plunges in the leading index at the end of an expansionary phase. Hmmm... I think I'm going to call up the Philly Fed and ask them about it..

Anyone in New York City (NYC) or New York State noticing anything locally?

Any economic or data junkies out there who might have an idea or perspective? @Account Closed , I know you've been looking closer at macro data around the New Year's refresh. Any thoughts..?

Is looking at charts a bunch of nonsense? Or does there appear to be some informational value between the relationship of the leading index and changes in employment?

Has anyone else seen some funky data that looks bad/foreboding? Or conversely, some data that looks fantastic on your area? The Bay is still cruising along on jobs and CA on the leading index. I'll keep my eye out though!

[Account Closed]

J,

As you know, I have narrowed down to a few favorite indicators to tune out all the noise from so many leading and lagging economic indicators. I've shared a couple of them with you, and didn't realize you would go nuts on them.  is another data guy. He can probably share with us his two cents.

I'm predicting the Bay Area housing market to peak this summer, and we'll enter a recession sometime next year. Whoever is getting elected this time around will likely be a one term president. People will call me a fool, and I have something to sell. As you know, I have nothing to sell but free time to help others unconditionally. 

Like you, I'm just looking at the data and history to come up with my predictions. It might be a fool's exercise, but it's fun to me. After all, you can't have a great life with a negative mind. Just keep our minds open, absorb all the data and come up with our own conclusion. 

Unlike others, I put my money where my mouth is. I sold one of my investment properties in Dec 2015, and I will sell another one this spring to raise cash. I've recently obtained HELOCs on a couple of properties and will look to obtain HELOCs on a couple more properties in the next few months with Everbank. I'm preparing my balance sheet before taking it to Jim. I want to be ready for the next downturn. In the meantime, I'm having fun building a new biz with @David C. @Johnson H. has been asking me about the state of our housing market, but I told him my crystal is not working. He will have to get his own crystal ball.

If you look at the 10-year chart of the stock market, does it look like we might have turned the corner? We won't know where the top and bottom are until they're behind us. The S&P 500 broke its critical 1,859 support today. What does that mean? Your guess is as good as mine. I have my own theory, and I have shared it with David and Johnson. It will cost you lunch if you want to hear it. :>)