I know appreciation can be a gamble, as compared to cash flow.

From an equity build approach, seems taking on the 18 by itself is almost more of a gamble, no?

Then go make a spam account and get added to some mailing lists of local hard money lenders, investor friendly agents, investor friendly escrow officers, and wholesaler types.

Betting on appreciation is like gambling in my opinion.  

(Most wholesalers send me deals from all over and at some point it's just spam when it's no where near where I invest.)

After realizing the market is essentially gambling, I started looking to real estate as I love the idea of having my money in something physical and real. 

If you have a 12 unit that is generating positive cash flow, and your bank is telling you they prefer to gamble on a flip... that's silly.

Provo is a great place and will not likely drop much even in a downturn (I have 2 buy and hold rentals there now) Trying to cash flow any new purchases in Provo is extremely difficult unless you buy condemned property and rehab it all your self (and don't mind still paying $150/sq ft for that) There are to many wanting to pay too much and gamble on appreciation.

(I have a spam email address that I put into all squeeze pages that offer me something I'm interested in but don't want clogging up my main email) You will find one of the most comprehensive beginners course in those pages that are still relevant to this day.That being said, had I not found a mentor, or more truly had a mentor not found me, I might not have made it to this point.I have said it before and I'll say it again, this is truly one industry that needs to go back to the tradesman/apprentice scenario.

So most people will end up dropping term contract.As to believe that invest the difference and that difference would be their self insurance is a gamble.