As someone on the verge of their first deal and making a very similar decision to yours, I can contribute this....The one complaint I consistently hear is that good contractors are nearly impossible to come by or that it takes a long time until you find one you're comfortable relying on.Also, many rehabbers/turnkey investors already have a line on cheap properties, bulk material rates and a crew at the ready, so sometimes what you're paying to them (60k, for example) will end up being less than what you'll pay to rehab a 10K place yourself and you can have it rent ready right out of the gate.Depends on if you want to get down and dirty and learn all the hard lessons up front on this first place.

I'll be getting returns on my duplex up there that are almost impossible to find down here (I say ALMOST, because there are always exceptions to the rule!)

Without specific numbers to look at or a property/market to analyze it's impossible to obtain a pre-qual.As mentioned, look at Wells Fargo.

And that the Seller Finance Coalition is trying to get the rules changed so we don't have to at least have a LMLO for the first 25 properties or so . . . but either way, we still need to comply with all the rules, whether we know them or not.My mentor has suggested if we offer seller financing to owner occupants to hire an Licensed Mortgage Loan Officer, but that has turned out to be next to impossible.  

While I might be able to get the prospective to release their information, it's impossible for Transunion to sign off.I recommend owner operators to use Smartmove (a Transunion product) to do their own screening, versus hiring an agent to simply screen a tenant, and sign a lease. 

Watch out San Francisco, we are tired of being the "little" City by the Sea, and are trying to outpace your growth and national fame as an almost impossible place to find an affordable place to rent.

But that being said, it is easier to predict future cash flow streams and nearly impossible to predict future appreciation.I am finding 1.5% rule in Tacoma using the BRRRR strategy.

Likewise with finding mid-size properties at a 15% discount to appraised value--not impossible but about as rare as finding a $100 bill on a busy sidewalk.After working this plan for a while without results you'll notice that you'll start underwriting to higher LTVs to use leverage to increase returns, which is fine, or you'll start looking at C- or D properties because they can more often pencil to your benchmarks (but, unfortunately, rarely actually perform as planned).  

They are always out there, but they will never just fall into your lap, they must be actively found.If you find a good deal (relative to the current market) then buy it without too much worry about the market cycle, which are impossible to predict in the short term with any sort of accuracy as to when, where, and how much things may dip. 

However, I wouldn't wait around for the bubble to burst since it may never happen (probably will but impossible to time).