I have done this before and now find the risk just to high.  

If you haven’t already, I’d scope out the municipalities around town.. from what I read in The Economist, the Phoenix metropo area continues to rank high for job growth, which usually bodes well for new builds.

Even though there is low inventory, interest rates are high, and many properties don't cash flow, look harder there are always deals, you just need to find/make them.

Another thing to note, these are high-paying jobs being moved to Phoenix. 

Interesting I thought, that they have that high of a rating.

BiggerPockets also has a calculator to analyze deals, and I highly recommend you start this as soon as possible, even if you are not ready to buy.

3) What neighborhoods would you recommend in this price range if I'm targeting high quality tenants?

Low LTV, 30yr fixed @4.5% personal (1)• Investment condo - new const. high end purchased w/1031 (from 20yr quad) in 2019.

New Jersey is high.  

Your credit score is high enough to get something done, but whether or not that delinquency will fly is going to depend on the lender/underwriter.