This is not a prediction.

If I do X, then in Y years, Z will occur, and we're 85% sure of that outcome, based on the model"There are definitely times a model has been incorrect (it predicted something, but the real outcome was different)...but, even when a model is wrong, it teaches you something--and with that info, you can make even better models.Another drawback of building the models myself is that it took a lot of time--I probably could have saved time by adapting an existing model...I initially tried to adapt some existing models I found online, but they weren't easily adaptable to my specific circumstances/variables/goals/usage--which is why I ended up building my own models...

We are hesitant to give up a predictable income and steady cash flow.

Said another way, 50% of the units fail before the predicted useful life, and 50% operate longer than the useful life.To put the above in context, water heaters have a useful life of 12 to 14 years in Las Vegas.

On New Year’s Day 2008, having sold nearly everything we owned so as to be able to get back to square one, I sat on the couch aimlessly watching football working through the haziness of a new year with a 2-year rearview of a lot of bumps and bruises.

You can double check the population trends just by using google, and check the predicted future job growth by using a site like Bestplaces.net.

That is why I invest in these types of real estate assets as they are the most predictable & sustainable type of real estate. 

The first-pass solution is market capitalization...the constants that we can arrive at with good accuracy are market rents and operating expenses...so, we can predict cap rates in aggregate with 85%+ accuracy.

I’m far from the brightest bulb in the box… I’m still not 100% sure to make of it or predict, if I’m keeping it real.

Currently, you can break PMCs down into 3 categories:1) Small mom & pop PMCs: Pros - one call for everything, very hands-onCons - usually very unorganized, which leads to mistakes, if they are sick you have no one to get ahold of2) Medium sized PMCsPros - organized, several backup points of contact, overall better serviceCons - things may take longer as more hands involved, stricter procedures can be frustrating3) Large PMCsPros - more data analysis for better service, more predictable servicesCons - even more hands involved, unique challenges often ignored (no process to handle them)Red flags:- Short agreement that leaves a lot open to interpretation, which usually means to their benefit- Not a lot of details shared about HOW they will execute their services, so no accountability- Tell you not to worry and trust them, when they haven't earned your trust yet- Don't have a website or owner portal- Aren't properly licensedYour biggest challenge will be screening to find a good one!