Tulsa Market Stats n Stuff

[Nate Sanow]

Every month, the Tulsa area MLS provides an update that colors in a visual representation of data.

The first image I’m pulling from there is a shot of our sold home prices… which are UP on a 5 year YOY Outlook. (I’m choosing October but every month in 2022 is comparable, this is not an anomaly). 

Every day I log in to check MLS stats and yes… ASKING prices are down. In fact each week there are often as many price reductions as new listings. But…As of now, there isn't a market wide indicator of actual CLOSED prices being down locally YOY.

This image represents our closed listing volume per month - this is WAY down, obviously. This is admittedly really annoying for me, and I’m sure for my colleagues as this is directly hurting how we make a living… but when I see it, I think of what David Myer talks about on his podcast for On the Market by BP, about how there’s a certain “rate lock” of sellers who do not want to sell their property largely because they are locked into a lower rate than what they can now get. It is my opinion and observation that is the probable reason for this lack of closed volume, as, our months supply is actually not up much at all. 

Speaking of which. The bottom left quadrant in this image points to our inventory being…. DOWN !!!????!!!!! How can this be??? There’s a crash, right? I’m in denial, right??? Surely it’s all on fire because you can’t sell a property for what you want right… oh.. well… actually.. 99% is our current active ratio of asking price to closed price, as indicated in the bottom right. I’m really paying attention to that number almost more than any others to see if we are actually going to see any actual massive dips in value. 

Now that is somewhat disingenuous as I know in practice many sellers are offering tons of “seller paids” towards closing costs for buyers. So in a sense yes the seller net sheet takes a hit there. 

However, it is at times like this, a knucklehead like me really knows to looks to the data. I’m far from the brightest bulb in the box… I’m still not 100% sure to make of it or predict, if I’m keeping it real. There are instances of properties sitting on the market longer. There are motivated sellers emerging and getting off the high horse of the previous sellers market and becoming more reasonable and willing to sell for a discount… heck I’ve got a flip listed that still isn’t sold, but, I’m not quite yet in panic mode it’s just my patience is being tested.

But a CRASH??? I’m not seeing anything, locally, pointing to it. 

It is ironic, maybe oxymoronic to me, that the rate hike has served one thing for sure: a halt on supply, not just demand… and demand, while cooler, isn’t, like, GONE. It’s just different. Could it be, our demand is still strong enough that a further lack of supply is actually… RAISING value? That’s what I’m seeing, and it’s my opinion that it will stay this way for now unless the rate hikes get REALLY crazy, like 1980’s crazy. 

Does anyone in any other comparable market have similar information or thoughts? Anyone locally disagree or agree? Conjecture is welcome. 

Have a rad day!