Even as rates have risen, we're still in a historically low period.  

The problem is you can't go on historical rent and projections are tough these days also. 

Jacksonville's historical home price appreciation rate since 1991 is 4.3% per year on average.  

Occupancy has been good historically too.

This a safe historic-type neighborhood.

This made sense historically, but as the residential real estate industry has evolved would six months of inventory really feel balanced or a neutral market? 

I was pointing out that properties which are overvalued will end up at their historical appreciated values over time.

Entire neighborhoods are being re-populated and investors are actively working to make some headway against the historical decline.If you have history in the area or you know people from around Buffalo, you should have a leg up as long as you're careful.

Dividend rates are at historic lows because interest rates in the bond markets were at historically low levels until last year.

That's $6K per year and remember that interest is amortized over the life of the loan, so the portion of the principal payoff slightly increases each month over time.2) Appreciation - I look at the historical appreciation rates for the market I am purchasing in and then use half of that number for an estimate.