It sounds to me like you might be too tight on budget to buy a house now and might be better with the predictable condo cost. 

My predictions for the future are based on this knowledge, and of course those predictions are my opinion - that should be clear. however the facts presented are true and real threats to be concerned about. 

And this was for a long term rental that only cash flows a couple hundred dollars every month...In your case, you're still predicting substantial monthly cash flow.

The more data you have the better your predictive model pricing is

I assume the “consensus” is that Houston market will be 5-30% more expensive a year from now and ZERO people are predicting prices will be 18% lower in a year. 

I'm predicting things we have never seen before that will cause many to hold still to see how it all plays out.

My takeaway was: while the lot market has cooled from the high of the two-year inflated COVID market, it is pretty much the same as previous years.He pointed out that many of the guys predicting gloom and despair of a bear market have no discernable record of real estate investing.I respect Rick and his analysis a lot.

It is not predictable or guaranteed. 

I would classify this type of thing under "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" or "FUD" which these days serves more to generate clicks and views than it does to accurately predict the future movements of any market or asset.No matter what happens, people will need a decent, safe place to live.

(When we are wrong...its not a little wrong its usually off by a lot from things we cannot predict.)Using the Normal Distribution (Normal Bell Curve)Normal PERT= (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*4 + Pessimist Value) / 6 = (.8 + 1*4 + 6)/6 = 10.8/6 = Planned Value of 1.8 Weeks*I use this if residual risk is lowNegatively Skewed PERT  = (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*3 + Pessimist Value*2) / 6 = (.8 + 1*3 + 6*2)/6 = 15.8/6 = Planned Value of 2.63*I use this if if the residual risk is mediumVery Negatively Skewed PERT= (Optimistic Value + Expected Value*2 + Pessimist Value*3) / 6= (.8 + 1*2 + 6*3)/6 = 20.8/6= Planned Value of 3.46*I use this if if the residual risk is mediumIn my professional life this approach has served me very well.