This stuff is mostly just a logic puzzle.

To be clear, I mentioned the Fed to point to one more piece of a puzzle going askew. 

On the retail side of things, everything is overpriced and still disappearing like ice in a desert (fitting, since I'm in Tucson).However, I still believe there are deals out there for a first time flipper like me that's willing to take a relatively small profit on a flip project for the sake of better understanding the process.What I'm struggling with is knowing what pieces of the puzzle need to be in place before which.

We've been through leaks before, but this is puzzling to say the least. 

-So here's the puzzle pieces that I'm working with:Current Debt: Two months ago, I bought my first deal. 

The only piece to the puzzle I could use some help with would be figuring out the ARV of any property I consider.  

@Munir Hassan No Banks do not do appraisals, They hire licenced appraisers, which is an arcane , in exact science, practiced by those who failed to get into Hogwarts on a scholarship and are too enjoy mind numbing puzzles and sudoku.. keep increasing the radius of you search until you have found 3 comps.Personally I would treat it as a sfh and get local comps.

@Mitchell PollardFor me, raising capital has been the most uncomfortable piece of this puzzle – so first of all, I'd say well done! 

I heard a podcast that stated everyone is looking for another piece to their puzzle.

Thanks to all of you for your responses, because any little bit helps as I'm trying to piece together the puzzle pieces for a bigger picture.