This keeps them from lending based on values that are too speculative I guess.

Then, the question becomes is expecting the long term historical average appreciation rates over the last 40+ years (no more, no less) averaged out over a long holding period make you a speculator?

 Had we not spent that money, these nations would either be bankrupt garrison states or speaking Russian.Sorry, but that is pure speculation.

haha.Regarding you first question, I could guess and debate but no one really cares or will be influenced by one person's speculation (but I am inclined to be in your camp that rates are not going back down to low levels any time soon based on our broad inflationary policies mentioned above). 

However, despite the increase, the vacancy rate remains below the 10-year average of 5.1% and is 10 basis points lower than the first quarter of 2020.Due to the current economic conditions, developers are cautious about committing to speculative projects, which may result in slower construction starts in the next two to three quarters.

Some example of what I am just speculating (since I have no experience) could be failure stories:- The property was over leveraged- A larger than expected market downturn caused the economic vacancy to skyrocket, and the debt service couldn't be covered- The sponsor failed to execute the plan of improving the NOI (why?)

This is all speculation, but from buying and selling many houses and working with investors from all over the area this is what I think.  

Same rule applies to most coastal CA cities, I would speculate. 

You are speculating on the market. 

Smaller towns (15,000-20,000) with much lower population growth, but also feel like Bozeman before Bozeman was discovered by the rest of the country (Very speculative – I know).