I have experience in construction and may be able to offer my observations.

Now the deal looks much different from what a one-year analysis would suggest.When addressing the criticism that a pro forma is like trying to predict the future, I usually respond by observing that using the most recent year is really no different: You are predicting that all future years will be basically like the past year.Best -- Frank

My first observation is that I think you're probably over thinking the buy and hold business a bit.  

Right now, I'm a Forward Observer, E-5 type.

Newbies may not think or plan for a reserve fee (on expense ledger until filled, plus might contemplate a separate business bank account so can be observed easily).  

From my observations, more than half of discussions are taken off-course due to irrelevant comments.

Thanks again.I brought it up because I thought I was noticing a pattern while analyzing deals, wanted to see if anyone else observed it as well.Of course I realize the difference between ARV and Assessed wouldn't give an EXACT estimate of repairs, but was thinking maybe it was a good starting point for further analysis.For example, if a property's ARV and Assessed are very far apart I was thinking it might indicate that the property needs a lot of work...and vice verse if the ARV and Assessed are very close together.Is there any logic behind my train of thought in your opinion?

Heads up,This isn't official, just something I've observed.

Your thoughts align with the observation that millennials want to master something and move on to the next chalkenge.

It's definitely more profitable on a per transaction basis however it's typically labor intensive on the front end and may require a wider range of skills in problem solving.My observation is that new people who begin chasing distressed property deals are less likely to refer deals to other, more experienced investors for a smaller piece of the profit and, because they are unable to generate a deal flow, ride what few opportunities they have into the ground.