The assumption is that I would re-fi to a conventional loan when (if) rates drop in the next 5 years. 

During that time, property will have appreciated, as a general assumption, so it's going to be more expense to purchase an investment property and you have lost out on appreciation, and possibly cash flow. 

There is a complicated set of assumptions that go into calculating demand.

@Kyle Rucker- thanks ....you will have a tough time locating a 2nd loan for  180K +  ....Ask the realtor you are working with for options ...Make sure that the lender holding the FHA loan will be able to approve your assumption  request  ( this can be a long drawn out step ) .....if you do find a 2nd mtg - compare the fha loan and 2nd mtg  to a  simple new FHA or conventional loan as there may not be a large difference 

Despite the fact that some markets were faced with 200% YOY increases this/last year, there doesn't seem to be a justification for this UW assumption.

Wondering if this is just the state of the market right now, or if any of my assumptions or numbers are off.

@Ofir R. we've helped several in the past from Germany - usually trying to save their portfolios after they dealt with the wrong "experts" and made bad decisions.Recommend you first figure out the property Class you want to invest in, THEN figure out the corresponding location to invest in.If you apply Class A assumptions to a Class B or C purchase, your expectations won’t be met and it may be a financial disaster.So, when investing in areas they don’t really know, investors should research the different property Class submarkets.

@Don NicolussiRecommend you first figure out the property Class you want to invest in, THEN figure out the corresponding location to invest in.If you apply Class A assumptions to a Class B or C purchase, your expectations won’t be met and it may be a financial disaster.So, when investing in areas they don’t really know, investors should research the different property Class submarkets.

The lender lent the $200k on the assumption that you had enough money in the house to make sure that you don’t want to lose it and will therefore pay the lender back.

I would also dig into the assumptions they are making in the numbers.