Current Viability of Long Term Rental Investment in Calgary

[Graham M.]

Hi BP Calgary Community,

I live in Calgary and am looking getting into property investment. I am looking to invest about $100,000 on a down payment for a long term rental, but running the numbers on a few different property types I just don't see how it currently pencils out to positive cash flow. Wondering if this is just the state of the market right now, or if any of my assumptions or numbers are off. Here's a high level average cash flow calc for a few different property types based on what I'm seeing.

Apartment/Condo (2/3 BR, 1/2 Bath):

Purchase Price: $350k 

Mortgage Payment: $1550/month

Property Taxes: ~$1600/yr or $134/month

Maintenance Fee: $700/month

Property Insurance: $125/month

Utilities: $300/month

Assume no maintenance/capex reserve since Condo. $140/month vacancy reserve (5%)

Rental Income: $2800/month

Cash Flow: -$134/mo

Townhouse:

Note: Looking at low price units on the market for < 7 days to possibly get more value / minimize mortgage payments

Purchase Price: $450k

Mortgage Payment: $2150/month

Property Taxes: $1900/yr or $159/mo

Utilities: $300/month

Property Insurance: $125/month

Maintenance (5% rent) + Capex + Vacancy (5% rent) Reserve: $500/mo

Rental Income: $3000/month

Cash Flow: -$232.64

Detached Home - Single Unit

Purchase Price: $600k

Mortgage Payment: $3193

Even if I can get $3300-3400/month for a 3-4BR home purchased at $600k, maintenance and reserves will cause it to be negative cash flow

Detached Home - Two Units

Purchase Price: $700k

Mortgage Payment: $3831

Property Taxes: $3500/yr or $292/mo

Utilities: $300

Property Insurance: $125/mo

Maintenance (5% rent) + Capex + Vacancy (5% rent) Reserve: $860/mo

Cash Flow: -$608.57

Are any of my numbers way off? Reserves too high? Rents too low? I just don't see how this works out profitably in the current market.