@Justin R. and I are in agreement most the time but I interpret his response to imply that he believes we are near market high but I am more optimistic of further appreciation, just not as fast as it was between 2010 and 2015.  

If you have a strong written lease and only the one rental property, there's relatively little benefit to the LLC2) Jumping 150k+ up in price point only to then count on additional appreciation seems a bit too optimistic.  

And your costs assuming 20% down and the loan terms you have up there (which the rate seems extremely optimistic for an investment property loan) are $600/mo.Thats a $400 gross profit per month.

Adam and I have basic knowledge of wholesaling and are very optimistic and determined to start our business. 

I know if I want to be successful in this line of business I have to be brave and optimistic. 

I can't get as optimistic as Bob on a baseline appreciation return, but I do think it will be positive, and closer to 5% in the Bay than 0% or negative as some other may believe.Part of their point though is that it may happen.

@Brendan Harrison, Figuring out projected income for short-term rentals... since realtors can be a little optimistically misleading in regards to what a property would command on the rental market, is there a way to calculate this if you don't have the actuals/T-12, i.e. the property wasn't previously used as a rental?

I actually work in banking, so I have an appointment to speak with a mortgage lender within the commercial side of our bank over the phone tomorrow (they said they had deals for employees lol), but I’m not optimistic.

All too often these are really shoddily rehabbed junkers, sold at inflated prices with overly optimistic projections of cash flow to naive newbies who don't want to put any effort into buying good rentals.

I haven't seen a 2% rule anywhere realistic and have been assuming that to be 1% ages now.Just for giggles, I analyzed thispropertyhttp://www.trulia.com/property/3229148553-1-Quimby...renthttps://www.rentometer.com/results/tt_kOY8yPiIAnalysis Acquisition Cost Breakdown Purchase Price $150,000 Downpayment $30,000 Finance Amount $120,000 Improvements $7,000 Closing Costs $4,500 Total Cost $161,500 Cash Outlay $41,500 Financing Details Downpayment 20.00% Interest Rate % (anual) 4.50% Closing cost % 3.00% Loan Period (years) 30 Monthly Mortage Payments $608 Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Revenues conservative optimistic Gross Scheduled Income 1,200 $14,400 $1,500 $18,000 Vacancy Rate (% Rent) 10.00% 120 $1,440 8.30% $125 $1,494 Net Scheduled Income 1,080 $12,960 $1,376 $16,506 Other Income 0 $0 $0 $0 Gross Operating Income 1,080 $12,960 $1,376 $16,506 Operating Expenses Propperty Taxes (annual) $148 $1,776 $148 $1,776 Insurance (annual) $37 $444 $37 $444 Property Mgmt (% Rent) 10.00% $120 $1,440 8.00% $120 $1,440 Repairs (annual) 10.00% $120 $1,440 5.00% $75 $900 CapEx (annual) 5.00% $60 $720 2.50% $38 $450 HOA (annual) $0 $0 $0 $0 Utilities (annual) $0 $0 $0 $0 Landscaping/snow (monthly) $0 $0 $0 $0 Other 1 (annual) $0 $0 $0 $0 Other 2 (monthly) $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Operating Expenses $485 $5,820 $418 $5,010 con opt 1% rule 0.80% 1.00% 50% rule 44.91% 30.35% NOI $7,140 $11,496 Cash Flow annual -$156 $4,200 Cash Flow monthly -$13 $350 Cap Rate 5% 8% CoC 0% 10% Not to say that I would touch this property as it doesn't cash flow with my conservative criteria, but both conservative and optimistic criteria are showing this falling within the 50% rule and under the optimistic scenario (which isn't complete fantasy) the place cash flows.