I still had not started in Jax, but have experienced already the much "optimistic" approach of the city realtors ("there are no deals here", "you will not find it", all the "Blackstone thing" etc).

My property has all leaky windows, it would take at least 5 years to pay for the window replacement using the window company's optimistic energy savings estimates. 

I would add that your -$100 cash flow is likely optimistic. 

Your plan is very optimistic and your two biggest risks in my opinion are a market crash and vacancy/non paying tenants, specially if you plan to take out mortgages for all these properties and hold them long term.

Do not be over optimistic and not count things to talk yourself into a deal and then you get burned and lose some or most of your cash.

(Cautiously) Optimistic!

You and the two posters above reminded me of this quote from Winston Churchill “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity while an optimistic sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” 

I am very optimistic about this endeavor and I hope that I can learn from the wonderful people in this forum.

In most cases, a range of values is more appropriate because there are a lot of variables that affect one buyer more or less than another.I doubt your appraiser put a number on that property that he believed was wrong, although appraisers can often be too optimistic, and I doubt he enjoyed realizing that his previous appraisal was higher than what was offered after 12 months.You definitely seem knowledgeable in your field, so you know as much as anyone that things are only "worth" what someone is willing to pay, and no appraisal, BPO, or other piece of paper can change that.

well if you put as much work into finding deals as you did your plan, you will be successful, will it be exactly as planned, NO, but thats the fun,  just dont be too optimistic on the market, my goal is to be all in after rehab, no more than 60% of ARV, because if the Market Drops 20% like in 2007/8, i still have 20% equity to borrow at 80% LTV, watch your numbers, and you will be fine, the cost of hard money is a big nut, so be carefull with that as well.